Michael Vix

long convexity short stupidity

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@bennpeifert Personally I prefer the classic seminar response of “how is this economics?”

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@a_blind_sniper Isn’t this just car repo with a slightly different environment

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@dalibali2 worse. flying shitco for the king of shitco investing

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@bennpeifert Bartik Instrument = Shift-share. neat way to see how different places are affected by a big trend (shift). construct shares by looking at how those places were set up beforehand to causally state how much they'll be impacted by the shift

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@bennpeifert thoughts on shift share IV?

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@borrowed_ideas @morganhousel Bit of a false analogy. consider AGI to be on the scale of an atom bomb. Barring the soviets from access to uranium would slow the development process down temporarily. Chips sanctions are more along these lines.

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@achenfinance cheap talk!

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@BankBraavos firm limit the amount of thinking tokens generated for this purpose. deepseek r1's CoT limit is 32k tokens, uncertain about openai/google.

sites deploy captchas that i assume are designed to sniff out llms? wouldn't worry about llm on llm warfare for now

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@lugaricano If model are free or commodities, then demand for compute increases. Google Amzn and MSFT are the compute vendors and benefit tremendously.

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@bennpeifert a new response to the classic seminar question of: "is this economics?"

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@stevehouf @W98AB PyTorch (by Meta!) is the backbone of all the AI applications you use today, react is pretty huge too!

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@ptuomov Strange to see Lamont write this but not cite Betting Against Beta by Frazzini & Pedersen which advocates exactly what you are advocating :)

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@stwill1 chart represents treasury bond issuances, with y-axis as yield, and x-axis as maturity. some bonds are scarce/illiquid, which causes increases the cost to borrow those bonds for the basis trade. also called the specialness premium?

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@marcelolima Deepmind spun off Isomorphic Labs has signed deals with Novartis and Eli Lilly worth around $3B. Alphabet is the parent company of course, and compute definitely happens on GCP

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@JigsawCap to be fair, they're superior to using 3x margin because you can't get margin called on a 3x ETF. increased volatility drag is the cost of avoiding the margin call

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@CCM_Brett let's say openAI is a 0 with 90% probability and worth 1T with 10% probability, so fair value is 100 bil. even if MSFT is wrong and it's a 0, the cost of being wrong is maybe ~10 billion of prior investment for MSFT? have to take big swings to drive the needle at MSFT size

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@CCM_Brett Because
(1) Out of the public cloud providers, OpenAI's models are only available on Azure (contributes to Azure revs),
(2) OpenAI's compute spend goes into Azure revenues
(3) MSFT has a real options model and can terminate investment into OpenAI whenever they want

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@MillerValue @Rebrand_As_Y crox guy undefeated

[Michael Vix @michaelvix4]

@TMTMoats nvidia providing accelerated OSS ML libraries for their gpus serves as a really solid moat not really touched on in the article; only MSFT META GOOGL can possibly compete on that front