midcon maven

O&G

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@TeddyGambino What makes you say there’s a good chance it succeeds? Haven’t been following Argent but feels like there’s a lot of brownfield + Texas LNG which would need to go first

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@DrewSmithee I think it’s mainly data centers (MSFT Fairwater) + industrial power / coal retirements, but not that close to it

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@TMTLongShort Already seeing lots of horse trading out there (i.e. Venture Global settling arbitration by sending cargoes to Italy)

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@TomLoughrey_LFE My uneducated take…
1. Sticker shock: the sharp move is not something people were prepared for
2. Demand destruction: current Brent pricing already accounts for significant run cuts across Asia.
3. Uncertainty. Under status quo $100 can be $200 quickly. Can get scary quick

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@willrayvalentin The pain we would have avoided if any of our leaders actually had the balls to recognize US hegemony is worth fighting for.

I realize I sound like a neocon but even letting Iran get to this position is a massive stain upon on foreign policy establishment

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@ActAccordingly @badcharts1 This is flawed because they’re fundamentally different products. On top of intermittency issues, you gotta take energy density into account. Both battery costs & eventually replacement. There’s a reason nobody has made an electric plane… Crude could go def go lower tho post Iran

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@jvb_xyz Hilarious calling this a fade on the biggest supply disruption in history. Front month could easily go higher. Now if you’re talking ‘27/‘28 strip that might be a different story

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@WAR527 RAW - appreciative of all your insights over the years but think you’re biased here due to Trump dislike. Iran conflict was largely destined unless you want another N Korea. US LT strategic supremacy needs Middle East dominance. I’m also skeptical of execution, but try to be fair

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@PythiaR The glut was already questionable given global inventories weren’t moving like the bears hoped. Could argue that China strategic buying was distorting the market but oil would still have been up some this year ex-Iran/VZ drama

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@abluecrab1 Front month is April for WTI and May for Brent I believe

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@TomLoughrey_LFE Doesn’t the current $90 actually reflect demand destruction via refinery run cuts? Of course, it’s a temporary measure due to the supply crunch, but that has provided some level of cushion to crude at the expense of products. I agree with the long term premise though.

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@maiamindel @abluecrab1 You’re missing macro people shorting oil (not front month) bc of recession concerns if this drags on

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@AriPeskoe Insane work to give the NE a pass here.

“We can’t fix problems because of the past!” Very Dem of you. Just act like the shale revolution didn’t happen - w/ the Marcellus 100mi from NYC

Maybe it’s that poor policy normalizes bad decision making, leading to further missteps.

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@FracSlap Southwest WiFi is the worst of the major airlines. Over the past year it’s gone out on me countless times

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@aeberman12 Your logic makes sense, but is a little too close to Hubbert’s Curve for my taste. That same mindset would have stopped folks from buying minerals in the pre shale. Circumstances and technology change. Hard to price upside, but important to acknowledge it’s out there

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@aeberman12 @prpl8 Art - why have the Appalachia takeaway pipes flowed full the entire time they’ve been in service? Why do companies disclose decades of inventory? As a geologist, are you trying to tell us the rock isn’t there?

[midcon maven @midconmaven]

@aeberman12 @zacurate Art - feel like this chart is a little misleading given significant gas locked behind takeaway constraints. Appalachia could easily grow if the pipes were in place.

My observation is that it’s hard to imagine significant gas growth without infra permitting reform.

[RedRaider806 @RedRaiderLex]

Steve Sarkisian asking Cody Campbell what region of Texas it was discovered in..