Midmachiavelli

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@AISafetyMemes When I come back in 6 months and this hasn’t happened I’m gonna bop you on the head.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@blackbird256 @ruben_bloom AI is not a species. Stop anthropomorphizing it.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

Hundreds of thousands dead by drones? What lalaland are you living in?

“COVID was nanobots” everything is nanobots with you people.

Call me when the AI can frame a wall half as good as your average crackhead. Or give a timeline so I can come back and dunk on you once we’re past it.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@JTLance197690 @AbHomineDeus Oh and it’s gonna lift you out of your mom’s basement and finally make women like you right?

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

If I said that we have to start assembling the avengers because I believe there’s a > 10% chance that Thanos comes to earth and kills us, aside from being laughed out of the room, people would ask when. None of these cultists are ever held to task for their predictions or fear mongering and they have the convenient escape hatch of “prediction”. Do you believe that p(doom) is > 0?

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@bubbling_creek “in a coup or civil war” lmao so war is easy to win or orchestrate? Tell us more about what you know about war and killing.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@mackagallagher @YoCuddles @allTheYud @politicalmath Is this a real belief he had lol?

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

“It seems not that hard…” this is the fundamental nerd hamartia that scuttles these arguments. There’s a million scientific brekathroughs and assumptions that would need to happen to even place this in the plausible realm. So it’s all the more implausible in the p(doom) timelines commonly spouted. (3-10 years)

It actually is that hard. Nano-machines are mostly a fiction and all the breakthroughs we’ve have made are assembling double digit atoms in cryogenically controlled vacuum environments. There’s nothing to suggest that it could be done at such a scale as to create a factory now or in the future and remains in the realm of science fiction.

If we’re in the fantasy world where technology to just conjure up whatever elements we want via nano robots is possible, why would the huge factories described to dump all that world destroying heat in the ocean.

I feel like this is an extension of the bird and plane analogy but it wasn’t watching birds that allowed us to understand flight. Birds are an inspiration but had little impact on the final design.

Please try to automate the manufacture of anything and it will easily dissuade you from (or greatly extend your timeline for) death factory pdoom. Entropy is real and quite a bitch.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

I’m aware and I think it’s an incorrect assumption and one that requires significant proof - esp. if it happening in the pdoom timelines that AI-safetiests are describing. Interesting article but I also don’t think it’s grounded in reality, esp. footnotes about not needing humans.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@Leo_Abstract @allTheYud @politicalmath It’s not invariant if you’re saying pdoom > 10% in 5-10 years lmao. Fake smart guy.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

K just make some slightly better fingers. Use whatever AI you want. I’ll wait.

And we’ve done that since the 90s. Doesn’t make the tech cheap, easily attainable or automatable. Also going to be way too brittle to work in a factory. You assume that inventing something means it can be everywhere and wouldn’t be a scarce resource.

Why are you getting this degree anyway if you think p(doom) is remotely possible?

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

Doubtful you’re a masters student if you don’t know your specialization yet. Or you’re not good enough to be in a research program 😈First, RPA is not meat space and not robotics so there’s quite a lot you don’t know. There’s a big difference between automating back office work and doing production automation via microcontroller programming.

The biggest limit on automation is human capital and entropy. The machines involved in any sort of factory (automated or not) require constant daily human maintenance to ensure that they continue working. Please build an automated anything if you don’t believe me.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@mathburritos @jon_stokes Okay - so it hires these people. What scientists with access to the virus could it blackmail? Does it have blackmail on them? I notice that many of these scenarios depend on everyone in them being entirely amoral.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

1. Not the premise and you know that.
2. There actually is a number of ceilings on automation that do exist and you being ignorant of them means nothing. Your machine god is not going to magically make these things disappear. It’s very chicken and egg. To build a self replicating factory, first you need a self replicating factory. Also I remind you that these people are talking about pdoom in the next five years, not some far off future.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

The fundamental assumption of your premise is that a general purpose factory can even be built that is so generalized it can self replicate. I don’t believe this is credible.

Furthermore:
- it needs to be ocean front to dump the waste heat you describe
- it needs to be surrounded by an immense amount of farmland for the solar fields it would require
- it needs to have access to a well defined supply chain that can deliver the raw materials it needs to build another factory

And it needs to do all of this in secret.

This is just sci-fi and bad sci-fi at that. It’s not remotely plausible and only viable as a thought experiment if you are completely ignorant to the many difficulties building such a thing would encounter and would require the willful compliance and assistance of thousands of humans.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@pfau @QiaochuYuan I’m still impressed because I don’t know what those words mean.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@ramcdk @the_yanco Why would you choose to lie about such a serious topic? Are you an amoral insect person? These people profess to be sincere.

[Midmachiavelli @midmachiavelli]

@mathburritos @jon_stokes The parts beyond “steals crypto”. Is there a fiverr for blackmail teams?