During #Upfrontsummit breakout panel on AI impact on legacy industries, the most likely to be replaced/disrupted were professional services, namely Deloitte, PwC and others.
@wwhchung@bwertz I think that is a key idea. The incentive for entrepreneurs and their minority shareholders and early employees (who may leave but exercise their early options) are harmed by this new policy.
@Samirkaji What is the typical AUM for these allocators? I’ve heard the min $50 Million from some of the larger Canadian pension plans but it makes sense as they all have over $100 Billion of Assets.
@MehtabKarta There is also personal growth in taking on more responsibility and leading teams. We should be aware of potential cliffs and set up cascading option grants but employees will always have choices/mobility so they need to see the potential to grow. Not always possible though.
Rajakovic: "I want to be very invested in them, as human beings. I want those guys to know that I really care about them and want to connect with them on a personal level. ... I have a strong belief we'll come together as a group and take it to another level."
Rajakovic on coaching strengths: My love and passion for the game, and my commitment to the team. This is not about me. This is about those guys. This is about the team and how we're gonna get to the next level. All 17 guys, how we can help and improve those guys."
Great perspective on process vs. outcomes - we can all focus on what we learn and improve, but we can't control outcomes, no matter how much we want it.
Darko describing coaching philosophy: "Since the day I started coaching, for me, the biggest thing that I enjoyed is seeing players get better, players improve. We want to win every single night, but seeing the team grow, people grow, is something that was my biggest award."
@FDavidsonT Also, it doesn’t really matter what the market says if you have the cash to manage the situation and can come out the other side. Focus on what you can control. Saying this as a chair of a micro cap public co in Canada.
@FDavidsonT Thanks for sharing and think there is a good opportunity for Sonder. Do you see yourself more as a Marriott type brand or an asset owner/operator. I wonder if you separate the assets (brand vs asset) could simplify the story. Marriott/Host Marriott did this back in the day.
‘Current TVPI to final DPI delta will be large for many funds, and some funds have resilient companies; others are filled w/companies that were pure momentum (but still marked up).’
Seeing this now through secondary pricing valuing many venture LP interests at 50% of FV
Track records for evaluating VC's are an overused crutch.
LPs are programmed to use past track record as the primary driver in making a decision on whether to invest in a new fund (A recent study showed historical persistence of VC is that 70% chance a fund performs above median if prior fund is 1st Q).
However, more than ever, track record can be a very weak indicator if the fund is within <5-7 years.
- Spread of how VCs are valuing the same companies is large.
- Current TVPI to final DPI delta will be large for many funds, and some funds have resilient companies; others are filled w/companies that were pure momentum (but still marked up).
- Variables have changes dramatically, including macro and micro (fund size, competition, etc.).
- Certain sectors were massively marked up due to momentum vs. others.
LPs should view track records only as a data point (headline). Whether it is a proxy for the future needs FAR more assessment on current differentiation, competitive landscape, brand, rep, and systems the investor uses to see/pick/win. It's also why most public benchmarks for VC are worthless.
The best test of how inflated the marks are is seeing what that fund’s nav trades on the secondary market. Those discounts can be as high as 50 to 65 percent which is frustrating for LPs who have to deal with the denominator effect.
So LPs are looking at a world of inflated fund sizes, bloated teams, very high fees/carry, and very little actual deployment in good new companies over the past 12 months. They also know that TVPIs are super inflated, gross DPIs are going to be awful, and net DPIs even worse.