cwif solana maxi 帽子貓一哥

cwif billionaire. I gonna be cwif legend.
我是中文圈第一個喊單帽子貓的帽子貓一哥，別崇拜哥，哥註定成為神話！

[Balder @Balder13946731]

韩国三星击败了所有美国公司，成为宇宙第一。

三星利润大超预期，Q1营业利润达380亿美元，暴增755%，一个季度超越去年利润总和，营业收入上涨68.1%。

这个营业利润是什么水平呢？超越了 Apple，Nvidia，Google… 所有美国公司。

三星预计年收入还将狂飙50%以上，内存的收益神话尚未被打破。如果以这个增速持续到2030年，三星和海力士的年收入将超过1万亿美元。

美国互联网时代创造的财富正以前所未有的速度流入韩国，韩国可能会成为世界上最富的国家。

[金融世界 Financial World @FinWorld]

有一种死法叫死于捡钱太容易。2018年之前，做空VIX恐慌指数是全球最顶级的套利生意，不用加杠杆都能年化收益50%，加上保证金甚至能翻五倍。那时候全市场都陷入了一种低波动共识的幻觉，觉得只要世界不毁灭，做空波动率就是永远的摇钱树。直到2月5日，VIX一夜之间从17暴涨到37，那个曾经两年翻了数倍的明星产品XIV直接原地清算，无数中产账户在睡梦中被彻底抹平。

这不仅仅是暴跌，这是一场由于负Gamma 效应引发的非线性踩踏。当指数跌破临界点，那些做空波动率的巨头为了对冲风险，必须像疯了一样卖出更多股票期货，这就像在冰冷的滑梯上推了一把，越滑越快直到爆仓。这和 2024年初A股雪球产品的集体敲入本质上是同一种绝症：低估了尾部风险，迷信了线性外推。当一个产品看起来完美到不像话，甚至收益率远超无风险利率且回撤极小时，它通常就是专门为你准备的收割陷阱。

金融市场最残酷的真相是幸存者偏差。很多长期收益率惊人的产品，仅仅是因为它们隐藏的那个归零风险几十年才触发一次。一致性交易是系统性风险的终极来源，而大家之所以蜂拥而至，正是因为赚钱的理由听起来无懈可击。在这个衍生品横行的时代，如果你看不懂你的收益到底是从谁兜里掏出来的，那么你的本金大概率就是别人最后的晚餐。

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The best buy signal in markets isn't a chart pattern.

It's CEO confidence hitting rock bottom.

1991: CEOs most pessimistic → S&P 500 bottomed → massive rally
2002-03: CEOs most pessimistic → S&P 500 bottomed → massive rally
2009: CEOs most pessimistic → S&P 500 bottomed → massive rally
2020: CEOs most pessimistic → S&P 500 bottomed → massive rally
2022: CEOs most pessimistic → S&P 500 bottomed → massive rally

Every. Single. Time.

When the people running the world's biggest companies are most scared about the economy — the market is loading up for the next bull run.

Extreme pessimism is the contrarian investor's best friend.

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Quality stocks trading near their 52-week lows:

Berkshire $BRK (-12%)

Brookfield $BN (-16%)

Home Depot $HD (-23%)

Visa $V (-29%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-31%)

Ferrari $RACE (-34%)

MercadoLibre $MELI (-37%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (-54%)

Axon $AXON (-55%)

Adobe $ADBE (-64%)

[Will Yang @Will_Yang_]

对于巴菲特减持核心股票，囤积现金这件事，其实已经持续两三年了。这两三年里，媒体一直在给我们讲狼来了的故事，导致很多投资者已经麻木而忽略。
但是，纵观历史上的几次美股大回撤，巴菲特都是在危机前一年或者几年完成了撤退，
实际上，巴菲特的这波“世纪大撤退”是从2023年底就开始，并在2024年达到高潮的持续性动作。
我让AI梳理了一下这波巨额减持的精确时间线，大家感受下：

1. 苹果公司：2023年末起抛，2024年大洗仓
* 初次试探（2023年第四季度）： 巴菲特的抛售起点正是2023年底。他在当季抛售了约1000万股苹果股票（约占当时总持仓的1.1%），这是这波大撤退的发令枪。
* 疯狂砍仓（2024年第一、二季度）： 进入2024年，抛售按下了加速键。Q1减持了约1.16亿股（超10%）；随后在Q2进行了史无前例的“腰斩式”减持，狂抛近3.89亿股（近50%）。
* 持续派发（2024年第三季度）： 2024年Q3又卖出了约1亿股（25%）。短短一年时间，他将曾经占据半壁江山的苹果仓位砍掉了近三分之二。

2. 美国银行：2024年中期启动
* 巴菲特对曾经的第二大重仓股美国银行的密集减持，是从2024年7月中旬开始的。
* 当时伯克希尔几乎是连续数月、按周雷打不动地抛售美银套现，直到其持股比例降至10%的监管披露红线以下。

3. 更早的防守信号（2022 - 2023年）
其实如果跳出美股的苹果和美银，他的“去风险”和套现动作启动得更早：
* 台积电： 2022年Q3刚刚建仓，到了2023年Q1就迅速抛售。
* 比亚迪： 早在2022年8月就开始了持续减持，贯穿整个2023年，直到2024年几乎清仓。

总结
这笔超3700亿美金的巨额现金储备至今依然没有找到投资标的，一直像达摩克利斯之剑一样悬在市场上方。但这波减持动作的“发轫”和“主升浪”，如今达到顶峰，狼真的要来了。

[Dividendology @dividendology]

$NKE is now down 66% in the last 5 years.

Here's a large reason why:

[Andy O @andyz8818576155]

新美军陆军参谋长的履历,重点
1) 美军最强空降师师长
2)参加过中东的伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争,有丰富的中东陆地战争经验
3)空降作战实战派,拥有高级伞兵勋章(曾在空降部队中以伞兵身份服役，总计至少24个月)
这意味着美军下一步很可能将会对伊朗发动地面空降作战!

[Bourbon Insider Research @BourbonInsider]

This guy knew $MSFT was gonna crash and sold at the top

Wild

[0x辍学炒币 @sky27867843]

五角大楼披萨指数时隔一周再次异常了
今晚美股原油金银全部休市，这是给美伊战争的窗口期，川普如果动手就这两天了，如果不动手，过了周末可能性更低了
等待下周一
一切就水落石出了

[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

$MSFT monthly bx is still red.

Not buying yet.

That said long term institutional support is holding up well. 80% of the time price bounces off this level.

This is a strong long term entry zone. ✅

When the monthly flips I will be ready to move.

[Black Panther Capital @BlackPantherCap]

🚨 I've been warning about this for weeks; a -20% drawdown. This is my last one.

I'm not a doom-poster. I don't do fear content.

This is just the most COMPLETE picture I can give you, and what I think the current situation means for the market.

This is my view. Not financial advice. Not a prediction.

Long-term? I'm still bullish.

Short-term? I see a legitimate path to a -20% drawdown from here. And I think most retail investors are not aware of the potential on-going RISKS.

Here's EVERYTHING you need to know:

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 and the majority of people have NO IDEA what that actually means for the global economy.

Let me walk you through the math nobody's doing.

The Strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

Through it flows:
→ 20M barrels/day of crude and refined products
→ 20% of ALL global petroleum consumption
→ 20% of the world's LNG, almost entirely Qatar/UAE

This isn't a regional disruption. This is a global circulatory system shutting down.

For context: the 1973 oil shock removed 4-6% of global supply from the market.

This one REMOVES nearly 20%.

Everyone says "Saudi Arabia has pipelines." True.

Here's what they don't tell you:

> Saudi Petroline: 3-5 mb/d spare capacity
> UAE ADCOP: 700k b/d spare capacity
> Total bypass capacity: 5.7 mb/d

Net shortfall: 14-16.5 MILLION barrels PER DAY.

There is NO REROUTING solution at this scale. None.

Brent was in the low $70s pre-conflict.

After February 28: +$20/bbl within a month. Briefly touched $120.

Current brokerage targets for Q2:
→ Goldman Sachs: $110
→ Morgan Stanley: $110 (rationing scenario)
→ Macquarie: $150+ if the Strait stays shut through April

WTI crossed $100 for the first time since July 2022.

If Brent stabilizes at $130-$150, the historical demand destruction level, headline CPI peaks near 3.8%.

At that point the Fed isn't cutting. It's hiking.

This is where it gets REALLY ugly.

Goldman Sachs has the numbers.

Here's what a 60-day closure does to US equities:

$SPX base case: 6,300 → 10% correction

$SPX severe case: 5,400 → 17-20% drawdown from RECENT peaks

The S&P already crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months.

That's not noise. That's a technical regime change.

And here's the historical precedent that should concern every tech holder:

Semis have experienced ~30% drawdowns during major oil price surges historically.

Several Magnificent 7 names are already down 10-20% from highs such as $MSFT $TSLA $META

Have in mind. I could be wrong. I'm only trying to provide the complete picture.

But in my opinion, we're not at the bottom, yet. We're at the technical inflection point.

IEA member countries released 400M barrels from emergency reserves to buffer the shock.

At a sustainable release rate of 4.4 mb/d, those buffers are projected to be exhausted by mid-April.

After that? No more cushion. Secondary price spike hits with NOTHING to absorb it.

Rate cuts are fully priced OUT of H1 2026. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both push the first cut to September or December at the earliest.

The Fed is frozen between an inflation spike and a deteriorating labor market.

That's the WORST possible backdrop for growth equities.

This isn't just an oil story.

The GCC exports:
→ 25% of global nitrogen fertilizers
→ 30% of the world's helium supply
→ 27% of global ammonia, 22% of phosphates, 45% of sulfur

Urea prices up 28% in three weeks. DAP/MAP above $700/MT.

Food inflation is coming, but it'll hit harvests in LATE 2026 and 2027. The market is not pricing this yet.

This is were inflation will begin to hike again, especially across the Eurozone.

Then there's helium. Qatar is a top global producer. Helium recovery is a byproduct of LNG processing.

No LNG throughput = helium shortage.

Helium is essential for advanced semiconductor lithography.

The entire AI buildout, from chip fabs like $NVDA to the infrastructure operators running on them like $IREN and $NBIS, has a Qatar helium dependency nobody mapped.

These cascading supply chain failures take 18+ months to resolve even if the Strait reopens tomorrow.

EVEN after this ends, the world that comes out the other side is different.

The Ras Laffan LNG complex lost 17% of Qatar's production capacity. Repair timeline: 3-5 years.

> Higher insurance premiums.
> Permanently elevated freight rates.
> Inventory buffers rebuilt everywhere.
> Semiconductor supply chains rerouted.

The Dallas Fed projects a sustained Q2 closure shaves at minimum 0.5 percentage points off US GDP, potentially pushing us toward stagnation.

This isn't a shock you trade through and forget.

Goldman's 5,400 scenario is live if we don't see resolution before the reserve buffer runs dry.

Mid-April is the deadline. Watch it closely.

I started investing in August 2024.

20 months in. Up 70% total.

YTD in one of the most brutal markets in years? -0.5%.

While a lot of portfolios are down 20-30% right now.

I'm not saying this to flex. I'm saying this because the whole point of this account is to think ahead of the market, not react to it.

Protecting capital in bad environments is just as important as finding the next 10-bagger.

If this thread gave you clarity, follow along. This is what I do every week.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

[Nico投资有道 @tychozzz]

特朗普惯用的极限施压 + TACO，目前看来在中东战场上彻底失灵了。

之前无论是关税战、格陵兰岛、委内瑞拉事件，主动权其实都在特朗普手里，对手要么是自己的联盟小弟，要么是没有反抗的小国。

他可以先通过极限施压的方式，在谈判桌上拿到筹码，最大化自己的利益，最后达成协议，随后市场直接反弹甚至反转。

但对于伊朗这种独裁国家，光脚的不怕穿鞋的。只要想硬刚，手握霍尔木兹海峡的筹码，确实可以一直硬刚到底。目前甲乙方位置有点对掉的意思，伊朗态度对于市场短期走势的影响更大。

昨天伊朗起草霍尔木兹通行协议，市场看到了海峡部分开放的可能性，立马反弹上涨，这是一个很好的佐证。

短期来看，油价高企→通胀预期上升→压制降息空间→美股继续下跌，这条传导链路很清晰。

但拉长时间后，伊朗自己的石油出口经济命脉也依赖这条航道，双方大概率会走向某种妥协，市场也会慢慢脱敏。

地缘政治带来的下跌，历史上大多数时间都是逢低买入的机会。再结合当下美股市场的估值，大盘相对坚挺，但很多公司股价已经走熊，跌到比较诱人的位置了。

还是摒弃主流媒体和社交媒体的噪音，不要被牵着鼻子走。

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Warren Buffett said it best.

"Be fearful when others are greedy.
Be greedy when others are fearful."

This chart shows exactly why.

Every orange circle = Daily Sentiment Index hits extreme fear (below 15)
Every orange circle = S&P 500 was at or near a local bottom

2023: Sentiment crashes → market bottoms → rips higher
2024: Sentiment crashes → market bottoms → rips higher
2025: Sentiment crashes → market bottoms → rips higher
2026: Sentiment just hit 15 again ✔️

Every. Single. Time.

Fear is not a reason to sell.
Fear IS the buying opportunity.

The most reliable signal in markets isn't an earnings report.
It isn't a Fed meeting.

It's the moment when everyone around you is convinced the world is ending.

That moment is now.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The Duopoly Portfolio

S&P Global & Moody’s $SPGI $MCO
Visa & Mastercard $V $MA
Eli Lilly & Novo Nordisk $LLY $NVO
Pepsi & Coca-Cola $PEP $KO
Thermo Fisher & Danaher $TMO $DHR
Cadence & Synopsys $CDNS $SNPS
Linde & Air Liquide $LIN $AI
L’Oreal & Estée Lauder $OR $EL

Why are duopolies so interesting?

1/ Wide moats.
They fend off competition, enjoy high margins, generate strong cash flows, and reinvest capital at high returns.

2/ Market share gains.
Companies can’t beat every competitor — so they target the weaker ones and avoid the stronger ones. Duopolies keep taking share from smaller rivals. The duopoly (or oligopoly) only gets stronger over time.

3/ Compounding — the biggest factor of all.
Because they’re high quality, quietly gaining share, and reinvesting at high returns, investors struggle to grasp the long-term power of compounding. They’re essentially cheap even when they don’t look it — because compounding does the heavy lifting over decades.

Example — 20-year ROIC comparison:
Company A @ 18% ROIC: $100 → $2,739
Company B @ 6% ROIC: $100 → $321

Quite a difference, right?

[Roland.W @rwayne]

世界上有三样东西是无限的
1.宇宙
2.人类的愚蠢
3.WinRAR试用期 🤣

[老白｜Trader🐮 @baispx]

巴菲特昨夜接受 CNBC 采访，
其中有几个观点很重要，
大家要重视：
1、美股现在并不便宜，
不想为了5%～6%点的反弹，就进场。
2、真正的机会，
是那种市场腰斩级别（-50%）的下跌，
跌下来还会大举买苹果。
3、银行体系开始出现脆弱迹象，风险正在积累。
而且近期信贷市场的问题，
一旦市场恐慌爆发，
投资者会出现踩踏式出逃。

你细品，就是现在市场风险很大，银行体系+信贷体系可能会出现踩踏，所以，不能出手，
要出手最好等市场腰斩再说。

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

凌晨伊朗总统这个表态的诡异之处：zeorohedge是在凌晨零点39分第一个发出来的，而彭博社的快讯零点50分才发出，半岛电视台新闻更晚发布凌晨2点。然后半岛电视台凌晨3点又发布伊朗外长阿拉各奇表态：“不相信与美国的谈判会取得任何成果、信任度已经降至零”。
但市场已经暂时忽略伊朗官方的最新表态。

这事诡异的的点在于：
彭博这个记者、人脉遍天下的头牌媒体竟然比ZeroHedge还慢了十多分钟。就在ZH快讯发出来后，美股立即大反弹，原油下挫。有没有一丝操纵的味道在？特别是又是季末再平衡，有大量的被动资金调仓，更容易引发跟风。
我也不确定，只是觉得略显奇怪🤔
请原谅这个事情有点阴谋论了，希望我的怀疑是错的。

[禿道道🐟 @dearemon]

这……

[全球货币 Global Money @GlobalMoney]

实践证明，遵循这一简单的法则，能够确保您的投资组合，年复一年地跑赢标普500指数：当VIX恐慌指数处于30点时，买入股票。当VIX指数升至40点以上时，买入更多股票。当VIX指数触及14点时，卖出股票。随后，周而复始地重复这一循环。这个观点，与亚洲金融@AsiaFinance推荐的类似：市场极度恐慌时买入，市场极度贪婪时卖出。周而复始，不断复利。