Attribution is Overrated
Incrementality is What Really Matters
Every new-age founder wants to know: Which channel is working? What’s my ROAS? What’s the CAC by cohort?
All fair questions. But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Attribution only tells you who got credit.
Incrementality tells you who deserves it.
And if you’re an omnichannel brand, attribution is broken by default. Sales don’t always happen on D2C. People discover you online, but buy on Amazon. Or at Croma. Or at a retail counter 3 days later
You could have an ad that influences the purchase—without owning it in the funnel
Which means you can be making the right marketing decisions, but killing them because they don’t “show up” in your performance dashboard
So what should you do?
Most marketers will say: “Build a marketing mix model.”
But that’s not realistic for 95% of brands under ₹200 Cr in revenue. Too much data dependency. Too much statistical overkill. Too little actionability
Here are 4 ways you can directionally measure incrementality—without needing a data science team or an MMM dashboard
We’ve used these extensively at Atomberg, and I’ve seen other breakout brands do it well
1. Geo Split Testing (Still the best starting point)
Pick 2 similar states or cities. Run a campaign only in one of them
Example: Run Meta and YouTube ads in Gujarat, but not in Maharashtra. Keep distribution and trade inputs constant
Now track 3 things in Gujarat vs Maharashtra:
• Branded search growth
• Sell-through velocity on marketplaces
• Offline secondary sales and counter-level repeat billing
If Gujarat grows disproportionately, you know your campaign had impact. No dashboards needed. Just clean thinking and discipline
2. First-Time Buyer Growth vs Returning Buyer Growth
Your campaign performance might look the same every month. Same ROAS, same CVR, same CAC
But behind that, ask: How much of this is coming from new buyers?
If you’re seeing a rise in first-time customers (across Amazon, D2C), you’re creating new demand
Because loyalists will come back anyway. CRM and brand affinity will do the job. But converting new buyers—that’s where your marketing should be measured
Compare campaigns or months by first-time buyer contribution. That’s your directionally incremental signal
3. Paid Traffic vs Organic Trend Lines
Look at how your organic traffic and sales are moving in relation to paid traffic and sales
If you pump up paid, and see no change in organic branded search, organic orders, or category rankings—that’s a red flag.
Your ads are probably just capturing demand that would’ve come anyway
But if organic metrics go up in parallel with paid activity, that’s a strong sign of spillover impact. It suggests that your paid campaigns are creating new interest, not just closing existing interest
4. Channel Crossover + Offline Signal Mapping (Our favorite play at Atomberg)
Here’s where most brands give up:
“My Meta ads don’t show up in attribution—but I know people are seeing them before buying offline.”
So how do you prove it?
One way is post-purchase surveys (“Where did you first hear about us?”). Good for qualitative data
But we took it a step further
At Atomberg, we pass back installation and warranty registration data into Meta. And it gets mapped back to user level cookies
So if someone saw a Meta ad, clicked, purchased from somewhere else and then registered a product warranty 7 days later, we know which campaign nudged that sale—even if attribution said nothing
This has helped us measure true incrementality. And it’s one of the most powerful ways to validate performance marketing’s offline impact—especially in high-consideration categories
If your business is omnichannel and your product is evaluated, pure attribution will always lie to you
Instead of chasing perfect dashboards, chase directional truth
This mindset won’t win you awards. But it will save you crores
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Let's break it down. 🧵
In less than 30 days:
Multipli onboarded 500k users with 160k daily active users.
Multipli recorded an avg APY of 31.28% on Private Mainnet.
Multipli reached $50Mn TVL on Private Mainnet.
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Multipli won the 4th edition of Binance BIA.
In less than 30 days:
Multipli onboarded 500k users with 160k daily active users.
Multipli recorded an avg APY of 31.28% on Private.
Mainnet Multipli reached $50Mn TVL on Private.
Mainnet Multipli distributed 130Mn in tORBs.
Multipli won the 4th edition of Binance BIA.
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