Mika Niskanen

IR, Geohistory and the Middle East, mostly #Syria; RTs not endorsements; English/Finnish.

[Christiaan Triebert @trbrtc]

When Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, many of the officials who enabled and enforced his brutal regime disappeared. Our reporting uncovers who they are, what they did and where they fled. https://t.co/TkJ3AgTRi6

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Putin has gotten very good at reading and playing Trump. Just when Trump appears to pull away and support Ukraine, Putin lures him back with the promise of an in-person meeting and opportunity to sit down and discuss carving up a part of Europe like great powers of a bygone era. Tomorrow will be telling. Let’s see if Ukraine’s deals it’s worked on in past weeks and especially this week come to fruition — or if Trump kicks the can down the road to see what Putin will say in Budapest, another two weeks, if you will.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

With @Jack_Watling - We take a look at what the requirements might look like for a European force in Ukraine. Bottom line, this is not an insurmountable task, but will require proper resourcing and difficult political choices. @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/BVVceRvDVg

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

One upside to Trump’s unambiguous and unsubtle embrace of Russia’s position is that it’s clarified for Ukraine where the U.S. now stands. The focus on Europe here, to which Zelensky alludes, is now critical.

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Here’s what the current US secretary of state’s take on Putin and Russia was two weeks into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago:

[Elina Valtonen @elinavaltonen]

We Finns know Russia. Finland, a neighbouring country to Russia, consistently remained an independent democracy through the Second World War and the Cold War.

Take it from us: Putin has no intention to stop his expansionist pursuit. He will enter talks, enjoy the limelight, and take whatever he possibly can without making any genuine concessions.

Russia must be kept at bay and within its own borders with credible economic and military pressure. That is what ’peace through strength’ is all about.

Ukraine and Europe deserve to live in peace. There is no panacea. An isolated quick fix leads to more trouble down the line - also to the US.

So far Russia has shown no interest in peace. Ahead of any talks, Russia could signal goodwill by, for instance, returning forcibly relocated Ukrainian children back to their parents. 

Lasting peace needs a comprehensive plan for the years to come. A negotiated settlement should encompass a process, ensuring Ukraine’s and Europe’s security, including containment of the multi-domain threat Russia is posing.

This process could also manage a gradual and conditional easing of sanctions pressure. It can’t be a one-off deal.

This is the time for Europe. Europe is stepping up: committing even more to security and further increasing defence spending. And no matter what, Europe will be at the tables deciding about Europe. It’s our people, our values, our future.

But defending the free world takes the US, too. This space is closely being watched also in the Indo-Pacific. A secure and stable Europe is in America's interest and going forward, the US will need strong allies.

[Dalia Hatuqa🪬🤌 @DaliaHatuqa]

A summary of what's going on in Gaza atm:
This morning, fighters from Gaza carried out an operation that took Israeli by surprise, reaching Sderot, and taking Israeli hostages amidst a barrage of rocket fire. 🧵

[Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF]

Few new developments- Wagner pressing on and Kadyrov entering the fray but I think the analysis here still holds. Prigozhin’s Mutiny https://t.co/PB7CDApZAS

[Sylvain Mercadier @Sylv_Mercadier]

As my friend & colleague Quentin Muller described in an extensive thread in French earlier, we were both arrested & interrogated in #Socotra, #Yemen. Head of the Governorate's police, Tourism police & National security took part in our "vetting" for several days.

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

The Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus was retaken by Assad’s army in 2018 and his government now says people can return, but few have done so. @sewella joined a state-run tour to see what the camp looks like today and found little to return to. https://t.co/UXSs6ApkVH

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

Tämäpä tämä. Tärkeä ja toki erittäin huolestuttava teksti sarjassamme "Tarinoita yhden totuuden maasta".

[Journalisti @journalehti]

"Turkki on jo onnistunut vaikuttamaan ei vain Suomen valtion politiikkaan, vaan myös suomalaisen lehdistön vapauteen. Ei siis ihan pelkkää sijaiskärsimystä, vaan myös itsesensuuria", kirjoittaa @markusleikola https://t.co/xyrAiOvVmT

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

What a remarkable essay on the dynamics of sectarianization of #Syria's uprising. One of the very best @newlinesmag (which sets the bar really, really high).

[Uğur Ümit Üngör @ugur_umit_ungor]

Ali Khizam (1966-2012), a colonel in the Republican Guard, committed a wide range of atrocities during the repression of the Syrian uprising. This biographical essay in @newlinesmag portrays the life and crimes of this top perpetrator in the Assad regime.
https://t.co/tPDsZA9hgX

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

NEW: A US official tells me, "The United States is concerned that the Russian Government is preparing for an invasion into Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives."

[Nadia Hardman @Nadia_Hardman]

1/6 #Syria is not safe‼️

A thread on breaking new @hrw new report on what happened to Syrian refugees when they returned to #Syria.

We spoke to 65 refugees from #Lebanon and #Jordan and documented horrifying cases of abuse and persecution.

https://t.co/uXZclJirag

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

https://t.co/2KvqgWhejx

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

@TheWorldBank1 states the global implications of #Lebanon's crisis quite explicitly in a footnote to the June 2021 Lebanon Economic Monitor:

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

Antonio Giustozzi's thoughtful opinion piece on #Afghanistan @guardian (via @burke_jason) raises the question: Will the method of incorporating old elites (most notably ex-President Karzai) affect the Taliban's ability to rule as they will? https://t.co/CZqGUwaJcu

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

An excellent paper full of valuable details on how, and with what limitations, different parts of #Syria are actually governed.

[Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Middle East @boell_meo]

Almost a decade of conflict has transformed power dynamics in Syria. The country is politically and economically fragmented, and it is controlled by rival regimes and de facto authorities.
@HaidHaid22 @boell_MENA
https://t.co/k4vPPjLfCF

[Mika Niskanen @mjniskan]

@TPpodcast_ on #climate #energy & #PowerPolitics. Especially these episodes with both @adam_tooze @HelenHet20 have been an indispensable intellectual lifeline through the past year of pandemic-induced monotony. https://t.co/feWyCh53Em