Matt Manes

Director of #Security @peak_resources #IBM #cybersecurity #compliance #cloud #husband #dad #hiking #golf #hockey @eagles @NHLFlyers

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

Grit is a big part of my life both personally and professionally. What are you passionate about?

https://t.co/UwC3VYmJiu

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 1 Preview

These are the things I’m looking at on this week’s slate:

- Bengals vs. Bucs looks like a game with a median outcome around 27-24. I don’t have very much confidence in Zac Taylor, but I’m sure he knows you should try to beat Todd Bowles’ defenses through the air.

- When these teams squared off in 2022, Joe Burrow threw for four scores, while Ja’Marr Chase went for 7-60-1 on a game leading 13 targets. In 2020 when Tyreek Hill went for 13-269-3 on 15 targets against Tampa in the regular season, Bowles took a different approach in the Super Bowl, by playing more two high and sending less heat (which they also didn’t need because KC was down both starting OTs). Hill went for 7-73 in that second bout. Hill is a unique player, but the point I’m trying to make here is if Bowles is going to send less heat and play more two high in a game, giving Chase volume underneath like he did to Hill in the Super Bowl, would make sense.

- If this game ends up going under, good chance this type of dynamic is a factor.

- I have never been a Bucky Irving guy, but I like Bucky Irving in this spot. I also like Emeka Egbuka and to a lesser extent Chris Godwin.

- If the Chicago Bears play reasonably well, they should be able to beat the Carolina Panthers with some distance. The question for me is what kind of macro gameplan does Ben Johnson have against a Panthers defense whose strength is linebacker and perimeter corner, paired with a below average pass rush? Everything is on the table against this opponent, so how aggressive Johnson comes out is of great interest to me, because Chicago could win big in both phases against the Panthers.

- Carolina isn’t built to be a shootout team, so I’d think that Dave Canales will lean into the old school completions plus carries brand of offense for as long as he can, similar to the one they took against Dallas last year. Get Bryce Young some layups early with a run heavy approach, unless they are forced out of it.

- The Falcons may have attempted to play real offense if Tua Tagovailoa was active, which probably would have been a disaster against the Steelers’ defense.

- With Cooper Rush at the controls my expectation is a muddier, more Bijan Robinson-centric game plan with some early quick hitters in an effort to mitigate Pittsburgh’s front. I’d expect a play action shot play mixed in early as well.

- Aaron Rodgers is no longer at the peak of his powers, and he had a few bad games in 2025. But he also had plenty of solid outings, with a few remarkable ones for a quarterback that’s breached 40 years old. If Rodgers plays well here, it’s tough to see Pittsburgh losing this one.

- The Eagles have a vastly superior roster to Washington, with advantages in both trenches.

- This looks like a potential smash spot for Saquon Barkley.

- Apart from Jayden Daniels putting the Commanders on his back and carrying them to victory against a superior roster, it’s difficult to see a path for Washington to win this contest.

- Hosting the Saints is a perfect Opening Day opponent for the Lions offense, as Jared Goff could realistically throw for 300 yards and 4 TDs, or Jahmyr Gibbs could approach 200 total yards against this defense.

- Any of the Lions core skill players could pop off here, but I like Sam Laporta’s matchup more than I usually do.

- I was very impressed with Kellen Moore last year, but there are now 10 games of film on Tyler Shough that opponents have had an offseason to review. If I’m Detroit playing Shough, I make him beat me with perimeter throws, similar to how Bill Belichick gave Tom Brady nothing on in breakers in their first matchup as foes (no, I am not comparing Shough to Brady in any capacity).

- It would not surprise me if the Colts beat Baltimore. Lamar Jackson in a new offense, against an opponent specific DC in Lou Anarumo that’s very familiar with Jackson.

- Shane Steichen’s offense also hung 38 points against Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense in the first half of last year, in one of the better games Daniel Jones has played in his career.

- My favorite aspect of the Jaguars’ non-quarterback roster is their front four, and that group could derail this game against Cleveland’s bottom tier offensive line.

- I treat Florida home games in September as an edge.

- Jacksonville also has coaching continuity and Trevor Lawrence, who ascended to at least fringe top 10 status at the position last season. That’s four real advantages for the Jaguars.

- I like Todd Monken, which is why I feel bad for him that he had to take this job, it reminds me a bit of when Vic Fangio took the Broncos job. Because this Browns team, while it has some good building blocks for the future, is a mess as it stands today. If Cleveland makes this interesting, their still pretty good defense drives that outcome in a rare road spike game for this group, with the expectation that Todd Monken builds at least one scoring drive around explosive rookie KC Concepcion.

- I don’t have any doubt that the Chargers will have a high-performing offense this season with Mike McDaniel calling plays for Justin Herbert. I could however see a monumental fall off for this defense with Jessie Minter in Baltimore.

- This looks like a potential smash spot for Omarion Hampton, though in reality this is a very good matchup for every core component of the Chargers’ offense.

- If the Jacoby Brissett we saw last year is the one we’ll get on Sunday, I don’t think Arizona wins this game, but I could see them keeping up and hanging around.

- Michael Wilson really surprised me last year, good looking physical/ contested catch player. I have no pushback on Arizona extending Wilson for real money. Given that, it’s time for Marvin Harison Jr. to become even 90% of who he was supposed to.

- The Texans pass rush beat the Buffalo Bills last year behind an 8-sack effort. Joe Brady was given a tremendous opportunity this offseason in Buffalo, it would be nice to see him create some margin against a high-end defense.

- Davis Mills was Houston’s quarterback for this contest last season, which again was carried by the Texans defense. If rookie year CJ Stroud is still in there, Houston is a legit Super Bowl contender, bordering on the team no one in the AFC wants to play. If the Stroud of the last two seasons is the actual reality, which I think it is, this matchup with Buffalo will be a good litmus test, because this is a very average defense these days.

- Titans vs. Jets has a 38.5 game total, but this game has some shootout potential as both teams have pretty good wide receiver rooms against back-of-the-pack secondaries. Additionally, Cam Ward and Geno Smith both have some ceiling to their games. No one can trust either of these teams, at this stage, but if this game approached 60 total points, it would not shock me.

- If De’Von Achane is going to have a day this season, this game in Vegas is one of his best shots.

- A few people I hold in high-regard like Malik Willis here. I’m expecting this game to be close to unwatchable. Hope I’m wrong.

- I was pretty interested in seeing how Klint Kubiak would put defenders in horrendous positions with Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. While that’s off the table here, Michael Mayer is one of the best TE2’s in the league and a player that would start on several teams.

- If Maxx Crosby has a monster game, Vegas should start shopping him again, because as I’ve said for nearly two years now, he’s the one piece this organization has that can help them build the interesting future they are now on track to enjoy.

- Vikings vs. Packers might be the most interesting game on the slate. On the Packers side, this looks like a game Jordan Love needs to carry. While I think we’ve already seen the best days of Love’s Packers from a team success slant, I do think he’s positioned to have his most productive season. But in Minnesota, against Brian Flores, behind a questionable offensive line is a tough Opening Day draw.

- Flores is probably the worst opponent in the league for this, but given that Green Bay has lost their skill position depth this offseason, I really want to see what the target distribution looks like in this offense.

- I can’t wait to see what Kyler Murray looks like with Kevin O’Connell. Peak Murray would be a perennial MVP contender in this environment, especially if he started his career with a value-add play caller like O’Connell.

- Giants vs. Cowboys shouldn’t be the first Sunday night game of the year, and I’m pretty surprised the total is 48.5.

- If the Giants still had Dexter Lawrence, Dallas being down Tyler Smith would be a real problem. Since Lawrence is in Cincinnati, New York doesn’t have the tools to exploit that loss unless it’s with a third and long stunt.

- If New York is going to be a competitive team their edge rush needs to get them off the field on third down, and this secondary needs to take one, if not two leaps forward. Dallas is a very good test on both fronts.

- Jaxson Dart can play when he doesn’t face a stacked pass rush, so this is a good spot for him to have a solid game.

- Chiefs vs. Broncos is an excellent Monday Night Football game. Kansas City is down their starting LT, which is a problem against a team like Denver. Strong chance Andy Reid uses the run and quick passing game to mitigate that disparity early in this matchup.

- I would love for some shades of Reid’s old screen game to show up in this matchup, especially if he doesn’t call the first one for a while.

- The Broncos offense against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is a really good coaching duel. Denver’s offense has more talent than Kansas City’s defense, but Spagnuolo has gotten the most out of this group for years.

I’ve watched every NFL game for roughly a decade now, which I do for sports speculation purposes.

I run a reality-based program here.

If you want me to keep doing this every week, comment or share this. As long as engagement justifies the time, I’ll keep putting stuff like this out consistently.

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@DrunkGritty00 I’m sure there was never a doubt about that prediction. What a game!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@DrunkGritty00 Me too!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@hutchinsonb_ff The rookies at TE were my plan going in! Thanks for the feedback. Keep up the great work!!!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@hutchinsonb_ff Keepers are in red. Love your content, Hutch!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@hutchinsonb_ff 12 Team PPR (TE 1.5 per reception), Auction draft, QB 6 pts for passing TDs and -4 for INTs, bonus for longer TDs, you don’t need to draft a full 16 player roster just a starting lineup or up to 16 players. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE). I’m the team with Daniels at QB

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@Ihartitz Daniels or Love?

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@Adam_Karpiak I’m sure it will come back to me. Happy holidays, Adam!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@Adam_Karpiak Just placed the order. Please help out someone in need. Thanks!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@HarryLockPicks I knew there was a reason I liked you. Go birds!!!

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@jlarkytweets @DaveKluge So you’ll pay me $300 to hike with you. Sweet!!! 😂

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

Getting closer

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@edsheeran Denver is ready to shake off this lightning and get this party started.

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@edsheeran Denver is ready to shake off this lightning and get this party started.

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

@SwiftOnSecurity Said it before and I’ll say it again. I came for the InfoSec, but stayed for the corn discourse. 🌽

[Jake Williams @MalwareJake]

Bad news: @Splunk says I can't steal Buttercup
Good news: they said if I can get 50 RTs on this, they'll let me raid the #splunkconf23 store and steal 10 of these fabulous tumblers.

I'll give them Splunk Studios at 5:45pm CoffeeTalk taping with @nohackme. Join us! #ad

[Craig Foster @Craig_Foster]

You’ve gotta see this.

In full.

Football is football. Sport is sport.

End of story.

Get into sport played by women, and the phenomenal athletes in the @FIFAWWC

Copyright @orangefrance

[Matt Manes @mmanes1]

Yikes!

[Matt Johansen @mattjay]

A month since this Fortinet vuln dropped, let's see how we're doing with vulnerable devices on the internet...

...336,000!

Turns out the initial Shodan search was underestimating the total, AND people aren't patching.

[Jake Williams @MalwareJake]

Deploying a WAF and believing your web application is secure... via:@trinertech