minororacle 🦊

DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON?

This is winning.

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

@owen1v9 welcome back

[EnhancedMarket @EnhancedMarket]

The new iPhone Duo lets you trade and apply for jobs at the same time

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

hey @fomo can we have light theme please

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

@cheyckit @MoneyPrinter0x he tweets what he wants, just like you. so why does he need to specify something? If you understand it, then it’s clear. otherwise, it’s not his responsibility to clarify.

[Cobie @cobie]

@gainzy222 thanks man

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

@cobie @bullishjax hyperliquid

[Rhino @lBattleRhino]

The only honest opinion to give at the moment is

I don’t fucking know

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

binance has launched metal perps as demand picks up

from both a price and fundamentals standpoint, it seems the next rally, if one materializes, will likely center on tradfi perps, with hyperliquid and kinetiq (still under a 100m mcap) leading the way

[GLC @GLC_Research]

With HIP-3 momentum, Hyperliquid’s share versus Binance is up 20% YTD

Hyperliquid is now generating significant crypto-unrelated trading volume. As HIP-3 keeps growing and expands the TAM, we can expect this figure to keep increasing over the coming years.

Then you understand why Binance is now launching equity perps. But once again, Hyperliquid has the first-mover advantage.

Hyperliquid.

[plur daddy @plur_daddy]

Do crypto traders have an edge in equities?

The answer here is nuanced.

Crypto is pure in the sense that most coins trade solely on attention, narrative, price action, charts, and memetic consensus. It's the most vibes-based asset class.

Traders who have done well in crypto are well versed in these particular skillsets. In crypto, these factors are the pillars of having sustainable edge.

That said, equities are different because they have real fundamentals, and thus offer a lot of information to be analyzed. Different parts of the equity market have differing proportions of fundamental vs. meme, but for the most part, none are as pure as crypto in that sense.

Every 3 months, earnings rear their ugly head and that means fundamentals can shatter the narrative or chart by dumping a lot of incremental information.

The universe of equities is immense, with thousands of names, so even initial table selection is more difficult than in crypto. In crypto, if you have been around for a while and have a decently curated TL + group chats, you will instinctively know the hot play of the moment. In equities in can be quite difficult to get your bearings if you are starting from scratch.

The reality is that the amount of information to digest and analyze in equities is infinitely greater than in crypto. For the most part, crypto does not stress this skillset very much. Many of the sharps that I know, who have moved over from crypto to equities and done well, have this in spades. Not everyone does.

As a participant in the equity market, you are trading against people who know way more than you. A meaningful part of the discretionary capital in equities is driven by sector experts who have covered a given sector for years, and know everything there is to know about it. They meet with the management teams regularly, talk to industry experts for channel checks, get proprietary data, etc. Of course this can lead to myopia as well, but as a general rule, you are starting off with a negative edge.

You have to know whether an earnings print was good or bad, whether a catalyst was good or bad, and the exact magnitude relative to expectations, in order to feel out the price action relative to the news.

Not just at a security specific level, but the overall market structure for equities is much more complex. There are many different layers of market participants with vastly varying styles and signatures, and the options market is a massive driver.

Being able to see across the breadth of the market and understanding sector rotations and flows are a big part of assessing overall market dynamics. In crypto this is easy. In equities this is overwhelming due to its sheer size and complexity. It's doable but it takes a lot of bandwidth.

The skillsets I mentioned before, attention, narrative, price action, charts, and memetic consensus, can help overcome this. Ultimately it becomes a matter of weighing out the positive edges and the negative ones.

On the other hand, equities (esp. US equities) are much more forgiving in the sense that beta is on your side, given the passive inflows into the asset class. So there is a natural beta tailwind that offsets any negative edges from an alpha perspective, particularly in larger cap US stocks. Probabilistically, someone will do much better buying a random S&P500 stock than a random CMC Top 500 coin, this goes without saying.

Not only that, but the lower volatility also lowers the psychological intensity, and makes it less likely to force you into mistakes.

Given this element, if someone does not have the edge to generate alpha, it's better to acknowledge this and shift to being longer-term focused, to harvest the beta instead.

I would guess that many crypto traders are not fully aware of how much the social layer has been a part of their success. In other words, the degree to which their compounded social connections and informational network have helped them make money in the space, instead of other edges. This does not transfer over in a new asset class and will fully reset.

I know this is not necessarily the most hopeful message, but it is an honest one. I do think very sharp people can move over and crush it. Given this slow period as we approach year end, it's worthwhile to spend some time being transparent with yourself, assessing the state of your process as a trader, and understanding what your strengths and weaknesses are. No matter what, you can grow on every dimension, though natural abilities also matter.

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

@naval Hyperliquid

[zoomer @zoomerfied]

[ ZOOMER ]

SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS, PARADIGM LED HYPERLIQUID DAT, APPROVES MERGER TO GO LIVE: BBG

[Cobie @cobie]

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.

I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.

If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.

If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.

While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.

In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.

I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.

Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.

The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.

In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.

In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.

Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

market makers blew up this, sell pressure that

yeah, okay

after march 2020, plenty of major players collapsed, yet the market kept climbing, so tell me, what makes this time any different?

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

@imapiggy_pig you’ll bounce back, take care

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

this saved me

it was brutal yesterday, hope everyone is alright

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

honestly my short term perp positions have been stressing me out with the recent price action, might take a few days off and clear my head

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

no big losses, just too many round trips with big uPnL

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

honestly my short term perp positions have been stressing me out with the recent price action, might take a few days off and clear my head

[CryptoJamie @cryptojamie7]

All of your favourite alt coins have been holding back their largest announcements for the conditions the market is currently in

Get ready for alt szn

[minororacle 🦊 @mnroracle]

happy BTC all time high for those who celebrate

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Bntober
Astober
Bitober
😁