Bitcoin is getting ready for an explosive move ๐จ Bollinger Band width is at its narrowest level since October 2023 โ $BTC went on to soar more than 330% from Oct 2023 - Oct 2025
$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative.
Read this weekโs Market Pulse๐
https://t.co/UHm3kYQ8Ht
Bitcoin longs have reached a new all time high.
More than 361K BTC, roughly $23.4B, is currently positioned on the long side across exchanges, compared with 264K BTC, around $17.14B, on the short side.
A strong long imbalance is common during bullish trends, but it can also appear during periods of sideways price action before major liquidation events.
This is exactly what the Open Interest Positioning chart is designed to identify.
One of its key metrics is the Net OI Imbalance, a proprietary formula built to detect excessive long or short positioning across the derivatives market.
When the signal approaches 1, long positioning is significantly larger than short positioning. What makes this interesting is what happened historically after similar extremes.
The signal appeared before the FTX crash, before the August 2023 selloff, around the $73K pre Halving peak, and again above $100K, when trader confidence in further upside was extremely high.
In each of these cases, significant liquidation events followed.
This does not mean that every extreme reading immediately causes a correction. It means leverage is becoming increasingly concentrated on one side of the market, making the market more vulnerable to a liquidation cascade.
Currently, approximately 57.62% of the estimated positioning is Long and 42.38% is Short, with remarkably similar proportions across most of the exchanges analyzed.
Another interesting observation is that Shorts rarely exceed Longs.
When they do, it often happens after a major Long liquidation event, when leverage has already been flushed from the market. Historically, periods of Short dominance have frequently appeared near local bottoms, although there are exceptions, such as the period following Bitcoin's October 2025 ATH.
Right now, Longs are clearly dominating.
The imbalance is not as extreme as some of the readings we saw in 2025, but it is still large enough to create resistance against a healthier and more organic price expansion.
For me, the ideal scenario would be a deeper deleveraging process, followed by a much stronger concentration of Shorts.
That is when I would become significantly more bullish.๐
I personally customized these charts, and they are all available for free.
Links in the comments.
Hedge funds on CME flipped net long BTC futures.
This is rare. The basis trade keeps them structurally short. That's why this chart's been red for years. You can't carry trade into a net long.
The suits are betting on upside.
"If you're in crypto, pivot to AI."
I used to hear versions of this, and it's the wrong way to think about the world. It's zero sum, scarcity thinking.
Crypto is a general purpose technology. It's infrastructure, the same way electricity or the internet is infrastructure. It doesn't compete with the next big thing, because it underpins it. It's an *and*, not an *or*.
AI being a megatrend takes nothing away from crypto. If anything, it makes crypto more important.
AI agents will need their own financial infrastructure and will eventually transact far more per day than all humans combined. They can't open a bank account, they can't wait three days for a wire, they reside in one country. They need real time programmable money (and that's crypto).
Agents will need to hold funds and pay for things on their own. We pioneered this with the x402 protocol, Base, and USDC, which now power the vast majority of all agentic payments. Agents will also engage in trading and act as a financial advisor. They will raise or borrow money for new projects they are undertaking. They will eliminate tasks for us around tax planning, portfolio rebalancing, and bill pay.
Welcome to the world of Agentic Finance (AiFi). This is what Coinbase is building.
BREAKING: Toss Bank is set to use Solana for its global remittance and settlement PoC.
The South Korean bankโs 15 million customers will be able to experience faster, more cost-effective global digital finance with Solana.
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Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update]
In this video we talk about how stablecoin dominance remains structurally bullish and discuss where we have seen similar patterns before.