“The Deutsch Files I” - where @naval and I speak with @DavidDeutschOxf . Now available on all podcast platforms. Also audio, links and transcript here: https://t.co/ZVqEGhVkbN
David Deutsch (@DavidDeutschOxf) on the poverty of 'P(Doom)':
"If you ask somebody, 'What's your subjective probability for AI Doom?', well, if they say anything other than zero or one, then your interlocutor has already won the argument.
Because even if you said 'one in a million', they'll say, 'Well, one in a million is much too high a probability for the end of the human race, so you've got to do everything we say now to avoid that at all costs.'
And the cost is irrelevant because the utility is infinitely negative.
And this argument has all been about nothing, because you're arguing about the content of the other person's brain.
Which actually has nothing to do with the real probability – which is unknowable – of a physical event that's going to be subject to unimaginably vast numbers of unknown forces in the future.
So, much better to talk about a thing like that by talking about substance.
Talking about what the probabilities in somebody's mind are is irrelevant.
And it's always irrelevant unless you're talking about an actual random physical process."
(Links to the full conversation below.)
It took over 200 hours of work for a blue-collar American to purchase one of these in 1956.
Today, the time price of a fridge is around 16 hours.
Read more: https://t.co/Y2q29GO389