I mostly agree, but...

All Tweets are legal advice & you were far too charitable in your analysis of my message

“Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome” - Charlie Munger

[I mostly agree, but... @mostly_agree]

black & white vs colorful

logic vs emotions

isolation vs hope

sharp lines and calculating symmetry vs natural randomness & spontaneity

[Hazel Appleyard @HazelAppleyard]

“But Sikh’s HAVE to carry a kirpan, it’s not negotiable…”

Go home then.

“But Muslim women have to cover their faces, it’s not negotiable…”

GO HOME THEN.

“But we have to slaughter animals in this cruel barbaric way, if we can’t…”

GO. HOME. THEN.

DO IT SOMEWHERE ELSE.

[Dan O'Brien @danobrien20]

Many people in the west don't realise that Chinese communists make Ronald Reagan look like an extreme redistributionist. In today's China personal taxes are ultra-low and there is very limited provision of free public services. Xi's views on the welfare state would be labelled 'far right' in the west, illustrating - yet again - the horseshoe theory of the far left and the far right bending towards each the further to the extremes they go.

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

History time: Recently many have been comparing the recent parabolic move in the Semiconductor industry $SMH as reminiscent of the ending price moves into the March 2000 top. It should be noted there was no semiconductor fundamental issue that caused that 2000 top.

In fact the first miss didn’t occur until September 2000 when Intel pre-announced an earnings miss.

Now we have Broadcom down 13% after hours on an inline earnings & revenue report with a slight forward revenue guidance miss.

Do whatever you want with this information.

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

The BBC has been forced into three separate apologies/corrections recently over its coverage of my activities - including a malicious attempt to smear our Rape Gang Inquiry.

Its behaviour in refusing to invite Restore Britain to its Makerfield debate is blatant election interference.

This is an outright attempt by the organisation to suppress Restore Britain's support.

I am formally writing to the Director-General of the BBC demanding an explanation.

There is no doubt in my mind that its own political beliefs are leading the organisation to deliberately censor and attack Restore Britain.

Restore Britain will tell the truth.

The BBC is a destructive cancer at the heart of Britain.

[I mostly agree, but... @mostly_agree]

long $NTDOY on falling RAM prices.

[Roger @rdd147]

🚨 Sam Altman warns OpenAi and Anthropic are experiencing severe pullback on Ai spending as companies put significant restraints on spending to restrict costs. The company warns investors it’s the first time this has happened in Ai and something we never expected. The buildout costs aren’t sustainable to allow profitability to hyperscalers or end users.

$soxx $dram

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

This has all the familiar hallmarks of the peak of an investment bubble

Stage 1: An influx of investor capital (i.e. dumb VCs with money burning a hole in their pocket) gives rise to fundamentally unprofitable business models (AI Labs)

Stage 2: This sends false price signals throughout the economy (i.e. selling compute at negative margins), causing massive misallocation of capital (businesses and employee workflows built around artificially cheap compute) .

Stage 3 (you are here): The false price signals inevitably clash with economic reality. In a race to show less horrific cash burn ahead of their IPOs, OpenAI and Anthropic have switched to consumption-based pricing models, and now we're suddenly finding out that companies like Uber and WalMart are cutting back on consumption

Stage 4 (coming to a stonk near you): Lots of paper wealth gets vaporized

[Reprobus St. Christopher @rstchristopher]

LLMs can do real and useful work, like coding assistance, summarization, translation, search augmentation, data extraction, and even some agentic automation.

They’ve completely changed many jobs, and are in the process of changing many more jobs, especially within engineering.

But they have hard limits, not just the increasingly subtle hallucination, but brittleness, poor grounding, weak long-horizon planning, unreliable multi-step reasoning, and no independent goals, no worldview in the human sense, no ability to learn, no agency in any reasonable sense, and no stability as they operate.

LLMs are not AGI, and embracing them for what they are (expert systems for token prediction) is proving far more useful and far more powerful than pretending it’s a superhuman intelligence (it’s not).

These kind of “expert system” use cases (which are proving very effective) in no way justify the the insane valuations we're seeing, nor the massive data center buildouts, which is increasingly feeling reminiscent of the dotcom days where Cisco became massively overvalued.

The entire hype of AGI-based economics, mass labor substitution, autonomous agents replacing whole job categories, superhuman reasoning, or any nebulously defined "singularity", are proving to be completely fiction, especially as the more mundane reality and limits of LLMs becomes apparent.

[Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ]

Keir Starmer: “there is no such thing as two-tier policing”.

Police chiefs today: “we will review controversial guidance advising officers to treat ethnic minorities differently”.

The absurdity of modern Britain.

[Oxford Analytics @OxfordAnalytics]

The AI Bubble is being driven by the fantasy that AI can replace human labour cost effectively. It can’t. The cost of compute is too high. Semiconductors are too expensive. GPU’s, CPU’s, even a commodity like NAND flash memory. Power is too expensive. Water is too scarce. Key metals are too expensive. It’s cheaper for humans to do the work than burning tokens using Claude Code or OpenAI Codex. The layoffs were premature. Humans are cheaper than compute.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

The UK won two world wars and Japan lost one horrifically. Yet it’s Japan that is still a culturally homogeneous, high-trust, low-crime country.

Mass immigration does more damage to your nation than being hit with a nuclear bomb.

[Atlas Press @realAtlasPress]

Karl Popper, this one is absolute gold

[Dennis Hong @dennisihong]

Another fun Greg Abel story: He led Berkshire’s proposed acquisition of Constellation Energy for $4.7 billion in September 2008 during the GFC, planning to fold it into MidAmerican Energy where he was CEO. Constellation’s stock had cratered from over $100 at the start of the year down to the mid-$20s, and Berkshire came in as the buyer at $26.50/share. They were ultimately outbid by the French group EDF. Fast forward to 2026, Constellation is a $100 billion public company and is the country’s largest always-on, carbon-free power provider that hyperscalers actually need. If Berkshire ever gets serious about AI energy infrastructure, Greg’s not coming to the asset cold and an asset of that size would go a long way in soaking up Berkshire’s massive cash balance.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Jeff Bezos: "If people want me to pay more billions, then let's have that debate, but don't pretend that that's gonna solve the problem. You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens.... Airbnb isn't causing high rents. What's really causing high rent is government intervention."

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

Speculative growth appetite is back near bubble-era peak levels.

Valuation dispersion is wide again. Historically, some of the best future relative returns for profitable small- and mid-cap value stocks have emerged when investors become most enthusiastic about unprofitable growth.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Texas celebrates every time CA raises taxes
'17 Toyota: LA -> Dallas
'19 McKesson: SF -> Dallas
'20 Oracle: SF -> Austin
'20 CBRE: LA -> Dallas
'21 Schwab: SF -> Austin
'21 Tesla: SF -> Austin
'22 HPE: San Jose -> Houston
'24 Chevron: SF -> Houston
'26 Public Storage: LA > Dallas

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 OMG. SEC. SCOTT BESSENT JUST WENT THERE 🔥

SEN WYDEN (D): We don't want ramblings about the most corrupt regime in history, we want facts

BESSENT: "And we'd like to hear what Adam Wyden and Jeffrey EPSTEIN talked about. Your son's largest investment position was Rick's Cabaret. So, did your son and Jeffrey Epstein talk about pole dancing as he begged him for money using your limited credibility?"

ASSASSIN.

[Adam Rossi @rossiadam]

Respect to Samsung not falling for the sunk cost fallacy.

Spending millions on a new HQ in NJ and then abandoning it in 8 months is a really hard decision to make.

“But we spent all that money and time! And now we will have to spend more on relocation!”

Most execs can’t make that call. Sunk cost scrambles their circuits.

Something changed. NJ likely increased taxes, regulations, something…so Samsung took off for Texas.

Will “lose” millions in disposing this property, relocating staff, legal, etc. But will most likely gain much more with the quick decision rather than dragging it out.

Abandon any sunk cost thinking. Pay it zero consideration. It’s always only this point forward.

[Adam Wren @aswren]

How can we be denying that ‘two tier’ policing exists when the police themselves have published and committed to this?

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Hearing that T-Mobile attempted to limit its Claude enterprise users to as little as $30 a month from a cap of $2000 a month in tokens, but faced immediate outcry. They are now saying that $2000 is a “temporary” number and that tiered spend caps will be introduced by end of week.

[Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound]

Finally got my hands on the sell-side analysis that explains why SpaceX is worth $1.75 trillion