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Crashout day being a goofy goober. Was impatient and felt confident my move would play out I just wasted all my ammo before it did. Was trying to predict instead of react. Now I have to painfully watch and soak it in. gg
The first 1 hour candle on NQ can give you daily bias
According to the data, the first 1 hour candle of the NY session has over a 72% chance of dictating how the daily candle will close:
1. 80% of the time, a green 1 hour candle led to a bullish daily close.
2. 72% of the time, a red 1 hour candle led to a bearish daily close.
1 year of data provided by @edgeful.
3-0 today could of extracted more on the shorts. Felt strongly about hitting that level this week and if you look at my Tuesday trade I was targeting it. Fire week 4k profits🔥 Going to be trading but lowering risk for the rest of the week scaling in with micros.
NQ High-Probability Retracement
After the NY Session Open, there’s at least a 69% probability of a retracement to the Midnight open when the move between them is 0.2% to 0.39%.
- 74% of the time, price retraces to the midnight open when we open below it.
- 69% of the time, price retraces to the midnight open when we open above it.
The larger the move from midnight open, the lower the probability of a full retracement.
HOW CAN I USE THIS?
If the move is ≤ 0.39%, the midnight open acts as a strong magnet, and I can hunt for setups using it as a target.
If the move is > 1%, I won’t use it as a magnet. Instead, I’ll look for setups in the direction of the move, as long as a Daily target hasn’t been reached.
@edgeful
Quick scalp today. Took mental break last two days so something small today to get back into the groove even though wanted to see more upside Im happy with the gains. Clocking out 30 minutes in.
The First 30 Min Candle in NQ Can Give You A Daily Bias
According to the data, the first 30 min candle of the NY session has over a 66% chance of dictating how the daily candle will close:
- 73% of the times, a GREEN 30min candle led to a green session close.
- 66% of the times, a RED 30 min candle led to a red session close
At 10am a new 4 hour candle closes so I look if we have broken Market Structure or if price is currently moving towards a Daily target in this timeframe.
If we get this 4H bullish close in line with the first 30 mins, then I can look for longs on a pullback to a 15min or 1H imbalance.
@edgeful