Rio, Market Catnician

Voted Wall Street Catnician of the Year 1998.
All downhill from there.
Dad/ Dork/CMT.
Often wrong. Always in doubt. Mostly inane parody.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

If there's one universal law financial markets follow — as a reader reminded me recently — it's that they prove most people wrong most of the time.

Yours truly very much included.

No sooner had "Sell in May and go away" been declared a relic of times past — and/or a lazy excuse for Wall Street to get an early jump on summer in the Hamptons, Saint-Tropez, or Marbella — than the first Friday of June handed us a doozy.

One of those hundred-year floods that somehow happens twice a year.

Everything went down: stocks, bonds, precious metals, currencies, oil.

Nowhere to hide.

The overbought stocks got hit worst, some down double digits.

A timely reminder that markets are non-ergodic, chaotic, complex systems prone to selling cascades. And if you think the better-than-expected jobs print - possibly flattered by FIFA World Cup hiring - was the only culprit, I've got a fully sovereign slab of land on Mars to sell you.

Now the tape.

Last Saturday I flagged first support @ 7400-ish. The market, ever the literalist, ran to fresh highs @ 7600-ish, then reversed and closed the week @ 7384.

First support, located.

But context matters. The 10-week SMA is rising @ 7200-ish. The 50-week SMA is still way down @ 6750-ish. So this is a stretched rubber band snapping back toward support, not a broken trend.

Yet.

Base case: still an uptrend, now correcting an obvious overextension.

7400-ish is the first line to reclaim.

Below that, 7000–7200-ish is the real floor: prior resistance, now support, with the rising 10-week sitting right in that zone.

Invalidation remains unchanged: a weekly close below 7000-ish.

That would turn this from a correction into a likely test of the 50-week.

Thanks for reading.

🙏🏻🙏🏻👊🍻

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@abrilzucchi If you're < 20yo and have all 4, you may have peaked already. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@CuriosityonX Maahcity

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@DearS_o_n Waiting for the right opportunity.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@ymmayerr The "I'm CEO, bitch" phase.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@TheBloggins 🤣🤣🤣🙏👊🍻

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

If there's one universal law financial markets follow — as a reader reminded me recently — it's that they prove most people wrong most of the time.

Yours truly very much included.

No sooner had "Sell in May and go away" been declared a relic of times past — and/or a lazy excuse for Wall Street to get an early jump on summer in the Hamptons, Saint-Tropez, or Marbella — than the first Friday of June handed us a doozy.

One of those hundred-year floods that somehow happens twice a year.

Everything went down: stocks, bonds, precious metals, currencies, oil.

Nowhere to hide.

The overbought stocks got hit worst, some down double digits.

A timely reminder that markets are non-ergodic, chaotic, complex systems prone to selling cascades. And if you think the better-than-expected jobs print - possibly flattered by FIFA World Cup hiring - was the only culprit, I've got a fully sovereign slab of land on Mars to sell you.

Now the tape.

Last Saturday I flagged first support @ 7400-ish. The market, ever the literalist, ran to fresh highs @ 7600-ish, then reversed and closed the week @ 7384.

First support, located.

But context matters. The 10-week SMA is rising @ 7200-ish. The 50-week SMA is still way down @ 6750-ish. So this is a stretched rubber band snapping back toward support, not a broken trend.

Yet.

Base case: still an uptrend, now correcting an obvious overextension.

7400-ish is the first line to reclaim.

Below that, 7000–7200-ish is the real floor: prior resistance, now support, with the rising 10-week sitting right in that zone.

Invalidation remains unchanged: a weekly close below 7000-ish.

That would turn this from a correction into a likely test of the 50-week.

Thanks for reading.

🙏🏻🙏🏻👊🍻

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@Steezehuman No. Darkest before dawn.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

If there's one universal law financial markets follow — as a reader reminded me recently — it's that they prove most people wrong most of the time.

Yours truly very much included.

No sooner had "Sell in May and go away" been declared a relic of times past — and/or a lazy excuse for Wall Street to get an early jump on summer in the Hamptons, Saint-Tropez, or Marbella — than the first Friday of June handed us a doozy.

One of those hundred-year floods that somehow happens twice a year.

Everything went down: stocks, bonds, precious metals, currencies, oil.

Nowhere to hide.

The overbought stocks got hit worst, some down double digits.

A timely reminder that markets are non-ergodic, chaotic, complex systems prone to selling cascades. And if you think the better-than-expected jobs print - possibly flattered by FIFA World Cup hiring - was the only culprit, I've got a fully sovereign slab of land on Mars to sell you.

Now the tape.

Last Saturday I flagged first support @ 7400-ish. The market, ever the literalist, ran to fresh highs @ 7600-ish, then reversed and closed the week @ 7384.

First support, located.

But context matters. The 10-week SMA is rising @ 7200-ish. The 50-week SMA is still way down @ 6750-ish. So this is a stretched rubber band snapping back toward support, not a broken trend.

Yet.

Base case: still an uptrend, now correcting an obvious overextension.

7400-ish is the first line to reclaim.

Below that, 7000–7200-ish is the real floor: prior resistance, now support, with the rising 10-week sitting right in that zone.

Invalidation remains unchanged: a weekly close below 7000-ish.

That would turn this from a correction into a likely test of the 50-week.

Thanks for reading.

🙏🏻🙏🏻👊🍻

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@mariusschober SpaceX is going to Mars!
Nuff said.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@JumaCJ1 🙏🙏🙏❤️

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@JumaCJ1 Do you have any uplifting message for the doomed among us? Something to save us from committing seppuku?
Thanks.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@RaminNasibov Getting bored and feeling like the loneliest person on Earth.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@NotA_Bull Your gf.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

A timely reminder that markets are non-ergodic, chaotic, complex systems prone to selling cascades.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

If there's one universal law financial markets follow — as a reader reminded me recently — it's that they prove most people wrong most of the time.

Yours truly very much included.

No sooner had "Sell in May and go away" been declared a relic of times past — and/or a lazy excuse for Wall Street to get an early jump on summer in the Hamptons, Saint-Tropez, or Marbella — than the first Friday of June handed us a doozy.

One of those hundred-year floods that somehow happens twice a year.

Everything went down: stocks, bonds, precious metals, currencies, oil.

Nowhere to hide.

The overbought stocks got hit worst, some down double digits.

A timely reminder that markets are non-ergodic, chaotic, complex systems prone to selling cascades. And if you think the better-than-expected jobs print - possibly flattered by FIFA World Cup hiring - was the only culprit, I've got a fully sovereign slab of land on Mars to sell you.

Now the tape.

Last Saturday I flagged first support @ 7400-ish. The market, ever the literalist, ran to fresh highs @ 7600-ish, then reversed and closed the week @ 7384.

First support, located.

But context matters. The 10-week SMA is rising @ 7200-ish. The 50-week SMA is still way down @ 6750-ish. So this is a stretched rubber band snapping back toward support, not a broken trend.

Yet.

Base case: still an uptrend, now correcting an obvious overextension.

7400-ish is the first line to reclaim.

Below that, 7000–7200-ish is the real floor: prior resistance, now support, with the rising 10-week sitting right in that zone.

Invalidation remains unchanged: a weekly close below 7000-ish.

That would turn this from a correction into a likely test of the 50-week.

Thanks for reading.

🙏🏻🙏🏻👊🍻

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

$SPX

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@texan77581 @0xEthan With apologies to Lord Keynes:
"In the long game, we're all dead."

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@texan77581 @0xEthan With apologies to Lord Keynes:
"In the long game, we're all dead."

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@cometwtf "This time is different" hits different this time for some reason.

[Rio, Market Catnician @musingtrader]

@cometwtf "This time is different" hits different this time for some reason.