Willow 🇨🇦🎶

Multichain Realist ~ Music is my Church ~ Always searching for the middle ground

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

This is a Net-Positive. Let’s move away from Saylor is the only buyer artificially propping up the $BTC price. Let’s Go!

[Ran Neuner @cryptomanran]

At this stage @saylor is just “inoculating” the markets and the ratings agencies to the idea that he will sell Bitcoin to pay dividends.

Strategy is no longer a “definite” net buyer of Bitcoin.

[Ran Neuner @cryptomanran]

At this stage @saylor is just “inoculating” the markets and the ratings agencies to the idea that he will sell Bitcoin to pay dividends.

Strategy is no longer a “definite” net buyer of Bitcoin.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

$SUI will pull a Bear-Bull $SOL like run.

Like a NASA-X43 Land to Stars in microseconds. Don’t fade this. 🔥

[ToreroRomero @ToreroRomero]

$SUI hit 6,086,766 TPS. The highest TPS ever recorded by a blockchain.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

$ETH will look so obvious in 8 months.
🔥

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

While there remains widespread skepticism around $ETH, the rise in the ratio of ETH/BTC signals investors are anticipating improving visibility of "use cases" for crypto

This is a good thing

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@MattWalshBlog You’re Such A Cliche, and you completely support the stereotype that Americans are a bunch of assholes with zero humility and 100% delusional sense of reality.

Oh, and the current Canada vs USA gold medal score is 4-1 plus 1-0 Battle of Nations, so there’s that.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@JesusMartinez Nah, We lost but man did we out play the USA. It’s definitely not if you win or lose, it’s How you do either that defines you. 4-1 gold medals for Canada against the USA, I’m just as proud today as ever.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@mario4thenorth That is a very generous interpretation.

My interpretation is Trump is a complete idiot.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@benjamincowen Coworkers were texting me asking if they should buy. I mistakenly told them to wait for 50k and DCA down to 35k 🫣… looks like bottom is in.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

What he said.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

LFG

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

LFG

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.

If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.

Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.

We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.

This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.

The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.

Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.

I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.

Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@NoodlesFi Accumulating through the lows, SUI will pull a Solana comeback

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@martypartymusic I can’t help but feel the tide will shift any second like a tsunami pulling out - tidal wave is coming to devour the shorts

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@DiscoverCrypto Are you tired of winning yet?

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

The last two times @saylor posted “HODL” was the (first peak) Top in 2021 and the top of this cycle Oct 2025… if history repeats we are going much lower.

$BTC

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

HODL

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

Controversial Take: Alt Season Starts Now.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

🚨 OG whale who completely wiped out and lost $250 MILLION last week seems to be buying ETH again.

Just now, he withdrew 80,000 $ETH worth $168 million from Binance.

[Jason Pizzino 🌞 @jasonpizzino]

The $71,000 level is the halfway point of the Bitcoin Bull Market. Every time in history that BTC has closed on a monthly basis under the 50% level (halfway point), the bear market has continued for several more months at least 6+ months before a low is found. It then takes over 12 months for a new all time high.

The super smoothie of BS cycle narratives are about to be put to the test.

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

@Steph_iscrypto Time to Sell?

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

“All Empires Fall”

[Farrukh @implausibleblog]

Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien,

"It is probably what I would call the beginning of the end of the American empire"

"We are in a very good position in in Canada, we have land, the best educated people in the world. And we have tolerance which is a great value"

"We have less very very rich people per capita but also less very very poor people per capita"

"We have unity"

"We have managed quite well to survive"

"Trump has created a mood where Canadians have never been so proud to be Canadian"

[Willow 🇨🇦🎶 @my_turntable]

Last bear market $SOL dropped from 250$ to 8$. $SUI will be ignored and faded at this Bear Market bottom just like Solana was last Cycle.

$SUI will skyrocket next Bull Phase.

[Noodles Finance 🍜 @NoodlesFi]

BREAKING: MYSTEN LABS LAUNCHES TIDEHUNTER FOR SUI NETWORK, THE FIRST STEP TOWARD GASLESS, STABLE TRANSFERS ON SUI.