SpaceLord

Philadelphia born and raised. Most stock trades became long term investments.

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

The Housing Boom Is Already Rolling Over

Catherine Cashmore’s land cycle framework says real estate busts are not random. Land values rise for 12 to 16 years as credit expands, speculation builds, construction accelerates, and debt gets piled against increasingly expensive land. Eventually the financing math breaks. Credit tightens, confidence turns, and the cycle rolls into recession. The full rhythm averages about 18 years, with a mid cycle interruption, a final speculative phase, and then the bust.

Where We Are Now

Applied to the U.S., June 2026 looks like year 14 or early year 15 of the cycle that began after the 2011 to 2012 housing trough. That does not mean real estate is still in a clean boom. It means the boom has matured and the market is entering the rolling peak.

The U.S. residential cycle is already past peak conditions in many segments. New homes and builder land are leading the downturn. Builders are cutting prices, offering incentives, and carrying more supply. Finished lots and speculative land are repricing in weaker markets. Existing homes are lagging because owners locked into low mortgage rates can refuse to sell, which makes national price indexes look stronger than the underlying market feels.

That is the key distinction. Land, new homes, resale homes, and headline indexes do not peak together. Land usually turns first because it is the most credit sensitive part of the capital stack. Builders follow because they have debt and inventory. Existing homes adjust last because homeowners can delay reality.

The mainstream story focuses on low resale inventory and nominal prices not collapsing. The land cycle story focuses on weakening construction, broken affordability, fading credit demand, rising builder concessions, and commercial real estate already in distress. The collateral still looks valuable on paper, but the financing underneath it is becoming fragile.

COVID fits the model as the mid cycle interruption. It did not end the cycle. It extended it. Stimulus, ultra low rates, and easy credit pulled future demand forward, inflated prices, and pushed speculation into the final phase.

What Comes Next

The likely topping window is late 2026 into 2027. Different markets will peak at different times. Areas with heavy post 2020 construction, investor demand, and speculative development should weaken first, especially overbuilt Sun Belt markets and development heavy suburbs.

From 2027 into 2028, stress should move from price resistance into credit contraction. Developers cancel projects. Builders cut harder. Appraisals catch down. Lenders tighten. Forced sellers slowly replace voluntary sellers.

The better buying window is likely 2028 to 2030. That is when distressed owners, tighter credit, and weaker sentiment should create opportunities that are not available today.

How To Invest Around It

Mid 2026 is a preparation phase, not an accumulation phase. Raise liquidity, reduce floating rate exposure, avoid speculative development land, strengthen lender relationships, and build a target list.

The first entry window is likely late 2027 into 2028. Start small and focus on broken capital structures, not broken locations. Look for distressed notes, entitled land, finished lots, failed subdivisions, and quality sites trapped under weak ownership.

The primary accumulation window should be 2028 to 2030. Focus on scarce infill land, strong suburban nodes, logistics corridors, infrastructure linked sites, and housing markets with durable long term demand.

The lesson is simple. Do not buy because the crowd still believes the shortage story. Wait until credit contracts, forced sellers emerge, and quality land can be bought below replacement value. The next great land cycle trade comes after the narrative breaks, not before.

Shout out to @m3_melody for bringing this to my attention while I was listening to @CoffeeandaMike

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[Traderstewie @traderstewie]

Found this 'Spaghetti w/ Mushroom bolognese' recipe in an older cooking magazine i had laying around!

I haven't cooked this yet so I can't attest to how good(or not) it'll be but it did sound like a winner to me!!

Felt compelled to share it with you folks!

I will make it sometime next week! If this recipe inspired you to make it before I do, please let me know how it turned out! Cheers!

[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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[SpaceLord @mylock11]

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