Nafez Zouk

EM strategist and Economist. Ex @OxfordEconomics, @IIF, @EBRD. Views are my own. For all things Lebanon check

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@NickStadtmiller From the Lebanon experience, that point unfortunately usually comes too late

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@macrokurd @NGurushina It might be the opposite this time (one hopes!). The spending cap limit gets readjusted in June next year, so the fiscal powers that be would prefer a lower inflation rate by then

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@AndyKhalil1 @EliePhillipidis @roulaibrahim @lebfinance @AzarsTweets @dgheim This all still sounds like a broken record. Everyone gets sick of broken records.

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@henrichaoul @AzarsTweets I'm curious to know if there are other country examples where donors have a hard time ensuring hard currency funds are delivered to recipients when the need to side step the government is obvious

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@AzarsTweets For the impossible things, they want an international court.. And when an international court can be relevant, they want nothing to do with it.

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@AndyKhalil1 And that when you have a fixed rate as they pretend do, a few of those variables are immediately irrelevant

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@AndyKhalil1 The best part is that the WAIR variable is statistically insignificant 😂😂

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@FunkyOzzi Wow so eerie

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@not_almanar @lebfinance @AzarsTweets @AlbertKostanian Eh it's a national past time

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@AzarsTweets @lebfinance @AlbertKostanian The Tripoli half 😉

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@JoeIssaElKhoury @IadGeorges @AmadeaBeyrouthi @CharbelBF1 @Sk_AZZI Yes but the second is a direct consequence of the first...

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@heiko_wimmen It's one step away from being every man for himself

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@Randa74031345 يمكن مفكر إنو بعد ما وصلو عالحفة ....
Shows you how big the disconnect is.

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

Tripoli is just a microcosm of the country. Years of complete and total monopoly over the political process has led to this. And driving ppl to extreme levels of poverty made it cheaper for Tripoli's leaders to buy their loyalties. Tripoli is just Lebanon without make up.

[Adel Afiouni @adelafiouni]

تعاني #طرابلس منذ عقود من بؤس رهيب وحرمان
المشاريع الإنمائية بقيت حبراً على ورق
لماذا؟
لا موازنات ولاموارد وملفات قابعة في الادراج
مثلها مثل الكثير من المناطق المحرومة وقعت طرابلس رهينة الابتزازات السياسية
والإهمال وحجز الاموال وتفريغ الإدارات
حتى الانهيار
والناس تدفع الثمن

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@ramezdagher Yes, and the cast of characters never changes: jihat majhoula, safarat, tabour khamis, iran, syria, turkey, russia, saudi, america, and now you can even add switzerland :)

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@EHSANI221 Who needs taxes when you have the diaspora? And who needs investment when you protect your own only?

[Mike Azar @AzarsTweets]

A reminder while we argue abt optimal terms for the WB loan: Lebanon wouldn't be begging for $250mn in aid if its political leadership hadn't brought it to total collapse & continues to do nothing about it. No working group, no plan, no accountability, no vision. Only paralysis.

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@Houssamitani821 And now an inflow of dollars gets siphoned off to give the system in its last breath some more air.

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

This is a "morally" difficult one, I agree. BdL gets takes 100% of the fresh $ and recipients get sub market value in LBP. Better than nothing, I guess. But hard to believe this couldn't have been disbursed in hard cash, which would have maximised purchasing power for recipients

[Mike Azar @AzarsTweets]

1/ Here's how the WB loan works:

WB lends MOF ~$204mn (part of the $246mn for basic income support)

MOF deposits the $ at its account at BDL

BDL "purchases" the $ at 1.6x3900

MOF transfers the LBP to the World Food Program's account at a local bank (then to the recipients)

[Nafez Zouk @nafezouk]

@adelafiouni @wsinno Exactly, deposit concentration is that lirafying the small accounts is a lose lose strategy. And anyway, keeping the rest in dollars means many years before they can touch them. Even that is a hard pill to swallow