mavericknag

Startup Mentor....Navigating life as it comes....

[Siddharth Chhaya @sidchhaya]

Sorry to interrupt your Sunday, friends.

I really hesitated to write this, but if I don’t speak up today, I will be facing a severe financial crisis within a week or two.

To be clear, I am not asking for charity or financial help. I am asking for work.

I have been completely without work for the last three months. My last project ended on June 30th, and since then I have knocked on every door I know—calling, texting, meeting contacts, and following up.

People say they will try, but after that first talk, the silence takes over. Calls go unanswered or get cut after a couple of rings. I honestly don't know whether the industry is shifting because of AI or if my age (52) is working against me, but despite over 13 years of solid experience in the field, nothing has materialized.

Now, my savings are down to the very end. I can barely hold out for another week or two.

I am a professional content writer, translator, and speaker who is comfortable on stage and in front of the camera. I write and translate fluently across Gujarati, Hindi, and English, with Gujarati being my strongest suit.

Many of you already know my grasp of politics and my political writing, but I am equally adept at covering Bollywood and cricket. My priority is media houses, digital platforms, or publications, but I am open to any genuine writing or translation opportunity.

I can work remotely or take up assignments on-site anywhere in Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar, as I need to be close to my elderly mother to take care of her health.

Because my situation is urgent, I am especially looking for quick-turnaround freelance assignments or immediate projects where payments can be settled on submission.

If you or anyone in your circle has work, please reach out to me directly in my DMs.

A humble, earnest request: while I deeply value your warmth, please refrain from sending just "best wishes" or "stay strong" messages right now. I am fighting hard to stay out of a very dark headspace, and right now, only actual work leads can pull me through.

Thank you for taking the time to read this, and thank you for your support. My inbox is open. 🙏

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@AshishGupta325 fyi

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: The US may have started launching airstrikes on Iranian oil tankers, with explosions reported in the Strait of Hormuz and near Kharg Island in southern Iran and Iran has reportedly placed its air defenses in Hormozgan Province on "red alert," per Initial Reports.

If confirmed, Iran may start firing anti-ship missiles toward US aircraft carriers within hours, with Tehran having already tested a new anti-ship ballistic missile in early September that US officials assessed posed a major threat to American warships.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

Please Verify @grok

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: The US may have started launching airstrikes on Iranian oil tankers, with explosions reported in the Strait of Hormuz and near Kharg Island in southern Iran and Iran has reportedly placed its air defenses in Hormozgan Province on "red alert," per Initial Reports.

If confirmed, Iran may start firing anti-ship missiles toward US aircraft carriers within hours, with Tehran having already tested a new anti-ship ballistic missile in early September that US officials assessed posed a major threat to American warships.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: The US may have started launching airstrikes on Iranian oil tankers, with explosions reported in the Strait of Hormuz and near Kharg Island in southern Iran and Iran has reportedly placed its air defenses in Hormozgan Province on "red alert," per Initial Reports.

If confirmed, Iran may start firing anti-ship missiles toward US aircraft carriers within hours, with Tehran having already tested a new anti-ship ballistic missile in early September that US officials assessed posed a major threat to American warships.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@AshishGupta325 Sirjee, although I want the market to fall, but the issue is Trump has a habit of TACO.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@grok Thank you

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@grok please verify this from WSJ

[ProblemSniper @ProblemSniper]

TRUMP REJECTS IRAN SEVEN-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL EXPECTS TO RESUME BOMBING AFTER MIDTERMS ELECTIONS: WSJ

[Kanan Bahl @BahlKanan]

The IRDAI consultation paper on commission cuts has sent shockwaves

Banking, NBFC stocks are badly hit as they mis-sold insurance for hefty commissions

The biggest reform is not in commission cuts, though

But the fact that the Bank RMs, who mis-sell policies will be named and shamed on the internet

If a policy is mis-sold, the name of the agent/employee will be put up on the internet

This will make them think a hundred times before mis-selling a policy

The Internet is brutal. People will start naming and shaming the mis-selling agents and their employers

This can make the employees unemployable elsewhere so they would refrain from engaging in mis-selling of such policies

Banks and NBFCs are going to be hit badly.

Insurance commissions form a big part of NBFC profits.

In FY26 it made up about 26% of PBT at L&T Finance, 18% at Poonawalla, 16% at Chola, 13% at HDB Financial, M&M Finance and CreditAccess, and 10% at Bajaj Finance (Source: IIFL, @kshayjogani)

Even for banks, this is 7.3% for HDFC Bank, 12.5% for Axis, 75.6% for IndusInd Bank, etc.

I only fear that the insurers will continue paying the agents (like banks, NBFCs, etc.) in the name of advertisement charges, etc.

Hope the IRDAI cracks down on that too, if and when, that happens

It is heartening to see this development come closer to the 1-year anniversary of my documentary "Mis-sold".

Grateful to have built this along with @1FinanceHQ, @kevalb26, @JeetMarwadi, @BatulKapasi07

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Markets Sense a Long Era of Instability: Don’t Buy the Fall

(a) Govt is distracted (b) FIIs dislike mass protests (c) 2021-26: Nifty below-FD Return (d) FD rates will rise; Build Cash (d) China 17 yrs 0 return (e) Here’s India Data & Facts:

Second Order Effects on Economy

a. Govt is facing real political storms. It has no bandwidth left for major economic policy or reforms to attract foreign investment.

b. Foreign funds don’t invest where mass protests and public discontent are a daily affair. Their bet on India was a strong govt; strong economic agenda.

c. Inflation rising, unemployment rising; IT exports declining; Rupee under pressure. RBI is forced to fight inflation. FD rates will rise in Oct.

Zero Risk Premium in Equity

a. 5-Year Returns: Sept 2021 to Sept 2026 (5 Yrs): Nifty 50 Return: 32.3%; Post Office Deposit Return: 34.4%; SBI 5-Yr FD Return: 30.8%

b. 3-Year Returns: Nifty 50 Return: 15.58%; Sensex Return: 9.94%; Post Office Deposit Return: 21.56%; SBI FD Risk-Free Return: 21.34%

c. Last 3 Years: Out of a universe of 2,867 stocks, 43.3% delivered negative returns (one-third lost up to 50% value; 11% lost above 50% value).

d. Risk-Reward Ratio: In last 3 years, you had a 43.3% probability of destroying your capital. Against such high risk, even if you won, the returns were far too negligible to justify such volatile investment.

Don’t Bet on Growth Narrative

a. Yesterday, Kotak published a chart showing that China stock market (CSI 300) has remained sideways for the last 17 yrs; and has not yet regained the level it set 18 yrs ago.

b. Howard Marks published data in his recent memo: In the last 100 yrs, each time you bought S&P 500 at forward PE 23x, the annualized return in the next 10 yrs has been between +2% and -2%. Every single time. No exceptions.

c. India is no exception. India’s growth story of FDI, FII, IT boom, low inflation is long over. Over the next 5 yrs, the downside risk looks higher than the upside potential. If you go all-in, that’s a risky bet for your mental peace, with little potential upside.

Why Are FIIs So Pessimistic?

a. On Aug 28, Bernstein published a hard-hitting strategy note: "India’s corporate earnings are artificially engineered through state subsidies, fiscal cushions, and borrowed offshore dollars rather than through genuine productivity gains."

b. Market bulls touted NSE 200 top-line growth was 12%. Yet, net profit grew only 7%. Bernstein questioned the practice of excluding loss-making oil marketing companies (OMCs) "to manufacture a strong earnings growth story."

c. Govt expanded LPG/fertilizer subsidies, took $10B hit through excise duty reductions, $20B GST cuts, OMCs took $2B loss. So govt subsidized consumer spending power, which artificially padded the firms’ operating margins. That's not a long-term play.

d. $70B Pay Commission wage revision is coming, which will encumber sovereign balance sheet and cut govt’s capacity for public capex. Plus, with costly FCNR deposits, govt is purchasing rupee stability on credit, Bernstein warned.

e. Finally, Bernstein says India’s large caps are not investing in the future, and are consolidating their past (preserving balance sheets). Companies with deepest pockets don’t want to commit capital to emerging technologies, and want policy protection.

f. In this scenario, FIIs are forced to look at small and midcaps (SMIDs). But those companies remain sub-scale, with low free-floats, high volatility, and risky corporate governance. Institutional capital is not interested.

Bernstein concludes: With these problems, why should FIIs invest in India?

ENDPIECE: Investor Strategy

a. PE de-rating is going on globally. World-class US companies are available at throwaway prices, and there are no buyers. So, don’t get tempted by a falling market in India.

b. Build cash patiently. Unwind risky positions. Cash has 3 benefits: (1) Emergency funds give security & happiness (2) FD may beat equity for next few years (3) If global equity crashes, you will be the only buyer in town.

c. Think in Probabilities: Considering all macro factors: (1) India Equity Boom: 20% chance (2) Sideways: 60% chance (3) Bust: 20% chance

FD wins: 60% + 20% = 80% chance
Equity wins: 20% chance

Markets are the greatest game on earth. The dream to get rich is as old as the hills. Most investors will still pick equity.

@arabicatrader

[Akshat Shrivastava @Akshat_World]

1) Billionaires in India will push the government to declare gold an unproductive asset.

2) Government will put some new type of tax on Gold: to move money from Gold into banks. Call it penalty tax.

3) This moves "savings" in Gold to bank deposits.

Banks take the money give to cronies to fund their adventures and sub-par products.

4) People holding gold in "virtual" format would pay some kind of holding/transaction/closing tax to accelerate this movement.

5) Example: SGB's were retrospectively taxed. The spot prices of virtual gold can be moved with government's policies.

If this is not done: more money will flow to Gold.
This creates a currency weakening problem:-

INR is already aggressively falling. With UPI's bad handling now: we have already given an indication to businesses "move towards cash".

This creates a natural flow to RE/Gold. This further weakens currency (people save in gold, not INR).

You'll benefit by either buying gold in physical gold (this prevents you against currency depreciation) or investing in foreign currencies (Eg. buying US Stocks).

Sooner you understand, the better it is.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

Whether it is The scientist Nambi or The Inventor/ industrialist GDN, or The Emotional father Thiruchelvan, or The pursuing passion Farhan or the Intelligent and sly Ajay Sanyal,..Maddy we love you. Blessed to be watching you.
@ActorMadhavan

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@ramkid Only if you want 500/- for vote.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@iAK1707 Jai shree ram

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

In Japan, every first-grader gets the same backpack.
A randoseru.

It costs between $400 and $800.
Parents and grandparents buy it together.

Foreigners look at the price and gasp.
Until they realize what it actually is.

It takes over 300 separate steps to make by hand.
Craftsmen in Tokyo stitch the leather with reinforced threads.

It is engineered to survive six brutal years
of six-year-olds kicking it, dropping it in puddles,
shoving rocks in it, and using it as a sled in winter.

And it does not break. Ever.

If a child trips backward, the stiff frame acts as a helmet,
protecting the back of the skull from hitting the concrete.
If a child falls into a river, the air pockets keep it floating like a life raft.

Then, six years later, elementary school ends.
The bag is scuffed, weathered, but fully intact.

Many families send it back to the workshop,
where artisans carefully cut the worn leather
and transform it into a miniature palm-sized replica —
a gift from the child back to their parents:

"Thank you for carrying me through these six years."

It isn't a school bag.
It's six years of childhood, stitched so tough
that even time couldn't rip it apart.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@ValueWithPrem Spinny sold me a lemon (realised later) at a high price. I went for the brand and model of the car. They have a price guaranteed buyback with a fixed range of price if we want to sell back. I wanted to sell back under their contract as per the fixed range, but they quoted less.

[NIFTY CLUB @niftyclubz]

#Nifty50

The Regulator and the Finance Ministry are closely monitoring the Equity Markets.

[Davinder Singh Muthuselvan @madras_aale]

Ancient Brahmins not only invented 0 and the numeral system, but also the world's oldest counting methodology.
Sahasra Gayatri japam wishes to all observing it today.

[mavericknag @naglanka]

@Astro_Panditji_ Pisces with Jupiter in it.

[⭐JC 🏹 @niftywizard]

Whole day Nifty not even traded once at 24335.. And final minute CAS brought that Price. Are we fools to believe all this ?

[Indian Tech & Infra @IndianTechGuide]

🚨 A new demand from protesters seeking changes to India’s reservation system.

Key demands:

1. Replace caste-based quotas with economic criteria for government support and public benefits.

2. Implement a "one family, one reservation, one time" policy alongside periodic reviews and a sunset clause.

3. Remove caste disclosure requirements from standard public and educational forms under a "One Nation, One Identity."