Nate Winkler

4x Founder (1x exit). Lifter of light weights. Podcaster (on Thursdays).

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@NicHulscher They want us sick - if you simply do the opposite of everything ‘they’ suggest, you will be so much healthier.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@JuanOsavin107Q Both of my kids were dramatically affected by vaccines.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

This is one of the more useful clips I’ve ever watched on this app. Perhaps small talk doesn’t have to be so terrible after all.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@SchmittNYC Anyone can hold public office. There is no bar too low. It’s pitiful.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@Polymarket This is the most 2026 headline ever. What are we even doing guys?

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@WallStreetMav I feel seen.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@HeroDividend A. College. Degree. Is. Worthless.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@olympicbean @SkapAttack Man, for a second there I thought this passionate dude was talking about something important.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

To. The. Moon. 🚀

[Milk Road Robotics @MilkRoadRobotix]

Andy Jassy just raised Amazon's capex to $220 billion and said even that won't cover the demand.

The same day, federal regulators cleared Amazon to start charging for driverless rides.

Our analyst @MelvinInvests believes the market priced the first one and ignored the second (save this).

Wall Street put the 'AI capex risk' stamp on $AMZN, after they announced plans to pour $220 billion into yet-to-materialize demand.

Except the demand has already signed on the dotted line.

AWS did $42.2 billion in Q2, up 36.7% (that's the fastest growth in 18 quarters and the fifth straight quarter of acceleration).

It added $4.6 billion of revenue in a single quarter, which Jassy said is about 80% more than the largest jump in AWS history.

The contracted backlog, meaning work that customers have already committed to and not yet been billed for, sits at $496 billion. Up roughly $132 billion in three months.

And the margin went the wrong way for the bears.

AWS operating income hit $16.6 billion, up 64%, with margin climbing from 32.9% to 39.4%.

So we have growth accelerating and margins expanding, in a business everyone says is being buried by capex.

That's curve one.

Curve two is why this name belongs on a robotics account at all...

Microsoft, Google and Oracle rent out compute. Amazon rents out compute AND purchases the machines.

Amazon is the buyer layer of the robotics stack, and the biggest one there is:

Over a million robots have been deployed across its network since 2012.

On the recent earnings call, management guided to more than doubling its fleet of robotic arms this year.

Cardinal stacks packages into carts, Sparrow picks individual items out of bins using computer vision, and both are going into existing buildings as retrofits rather than only new ones.

The Q2 release also introduced a next-generation Proteus, an autonomous floor robot that hauls loads up to 1,300 pounds and takes instructions in plain spoken language.

And it lands in the cost line. Fulfilment expense grew 14.1% against 19.6% revenue growth, so it fell from 15.5% of sales to 14.8%. North America operating income rose 21% on 16% sales growth, and margins moved 7.5% to 7.9%.

Melvin's whole case is that Amazon both buys the product and shows the result (nobody else does that).

And the robots are starting to leave the building...

On July 30, NHTSA handed Amazon's Zoox the first commercial exemption ever granted to a purpose-built robotaxi, no steering wheel and no pedals. It allows for up to to 2,500 vehicles a year for two years, with paid service starting in Las Vegas this month.

Amazon also bought two robotics companies five days apart in March:

Rivr, a Swiss four-legged robot that climbs stairs to a front door, and Fauna, a New York humanoid maker.

The strongest argument against all of this is cash.

Free cash flow swung to a $7.6 billion outflow over the trailing year from an $18.2 billion inflow, and that $62.6 billion of net income is mostly a $53.4 billion paper gain on Amazon's Anthropic stake, which has nothing to do with running the business.

Even when you strip it out:

Operating income still went from $19.2 billion to $27.5 billion, and the AWS margin still expanded 650 basis points.

The capex is landing against contracts that are already signed, and Melvin thinks that is a completely different risk from building and hoping.

Melvin has been calling Amazon the most underrated name in the Mag 7 all year.

He gave Milk Road PRO members a buy signal back in February at $199, and it's $283 today, up 42% since that call.

Follow us for more: @MilkRoadRobotix.

And get Melvin's live calls in real time, for $1 - link in bio: @MilkRoadRobotix

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@real_EBS_ Everyone else can leave Washington, Brandon Gill is all we need.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

@patrickbetdavid @AaronRodgers12 ESPN is racing to catch up with a culture who uniformly said ‘get this woke trash out of our faces,’ years ago. ESPN’s liberal echo chamber miscalculations are clearly showing up on their balance sheet. Hopefully it’s not too late for an American institution.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

DUNK. SWISH. @SecKennedy

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@SecKennedy NUKES @DanaBashCNN:

"I'm not debating this with you."

"Of course you won't. All you know how to do is repeat things that people told you and say, 'Trust the experts!' That's what you did during Covid. Now we know that Anthony Fauci, who was the 'expert,' was lying about everything... now, you're rolling out the 'experts' again to talk about something that you have no personal knowledge of."

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

This seems like it’s going to end well. 🤢

[Insiderwave @insiderwave]

🚨BREAKING

Trump’s Truth Social API is officially live.

Starting today, traders and hedge funds can buy EARLY ACCESS to Truth Social posts for $100,000 a month.

Let us know in the comments if you’ll be subscribing

👇🧐

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

COVID broke the housing market. Not sure how we put that horse back into the barn. Would love to hear @friedberg’s and @Jason discuss this on All In.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US housing market is in for a wild ride.

As rates rise to new highs, the average interest rate on a 30Y Mortgage is nearing 7%.

In other words, if you bought a home in 2021 at 3% interest, moving to a new home today would increase your rate by ~400 basis points.

Assuming you buy a $500,000 home with 20% down:

1. Monthly Payment at 3% Interest: $1,686/mo
2. Monthly Payment at 7% Interest: $2,661/mo

That's an increase of almost $1,000/mo, or +58%.

The already stagnant housing market is set to freeze.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

A vote for a Democrat is voting for Communism. @billmaher has the receipts, wake up America!

[The Vigilant Fox 🦊 @VigilantFox]

Bill Maher’s audience audibly gasps when he reads what the Democratic Socialists of America are actually saying out loud:

MAHER: “Trump has told 1 trillion lies, but when he says the DSA are actually COMMUNISTS, that’s not one of them.”

“And it’s not hard to prove it just by quoting the DSA and their candidates.”

“J.D. Vance was on the show, and I told him that if the Democratic Party keeps going in the direction of the DSA, my vote was in play. And all I heard all vacation was, ‘Oh, my God, you’re a Republican now.’ No, that's not what I said. I said in play, and here’s why.”

“Because not a week goes by where I don’t read about some newly chosen, exciting new face in the Democratic Party. And then when that face opens its mouth, the Communist Manifesto or some other crazy shit comes out! Again.”

“Let’s just read the quotes. The DSA platform says: ‘You work as much as you are able and no more than needed.’ If that was any closer to Karl Marx’s dictum, from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs, they’d be sued for plagiarism.”

“New York Mayor Mamdani once tweeted, Karl Marx’s words exactly. They’re not trying to hide it. Their most popular influencer, Hasan Piker, thinks communism is so groovy, he laments the fall of two of the most murderous regimes in history, the Soviet Union and Chairman Mao's China.”

“Mamdani's aide, his top aide, Cea Weaver, said, ‘If you don't believe in the government's sacred right to seize property, it's over.’ And ‘impoverish the white middle class.’ What? That's a goal? You know you're supposed to scare people into voting for you, right?”

“One of the new, soon-to-be Democratic congresspeople, Darlesia Chavalier, supports seizing all properties from landlords and said, ‘Seize the means of production.’ Mamdani has said ‘The end goal is seizing the means of production.’ I think they want to seize the means of production.”

“Now, maybe you missed that in school or missed school altogether, but THAT'S COMMUNISM.”

“Now the coalition within the DSA called the Marxist Unity Group is in ascendance. And I must take them at their word. When their words include, ‘Our commitment is to the long-term struggle for a fully liberated classless society. In a word, communism.’”

“What do they have to do, tweet out ‘Elect more communists’? Oh, yeah, Cea Weaver did that.”

[Shows tweet, audience audibly gasps]

“Yes, [she really did that]! ... People gotta realize this is going on.”

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

98% of meetings are just laziness at this point. People would rather talk about the work that needs to get done vs actually getting things done. Wise words from @elonmusk …

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

Home ownership feels impossible for most, liberalism has demonized the nuclear family, common good affordability is nonexistent. People are turning to Marxism because capitalism has let them down. Trump Accounts are a great first step but there’s more!

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

The 1% are already being taxed to death. The answer does not lie in taking more from an already overtaxed group, it’s in finding ways to better educated and motivate the bottom 50% - which America has miserably failed at.

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

The US has one of the most progressive tax schemes ever devised in human history.

The top 1% pay for 46% of ALL taxes collected.

The bottom 50% pay only 2%.

When socialists complain about our tax system, they are either stupid, lying, or both.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

There are many things now that go into making an objectively ‘good trade’: read the current and future markets, political headwinds/tailwinds, how AI might be manipulating us with biased advice, MSM and social media hysteria, and reading large hedge fund counterintelligence

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

Excellent overview of the Leopold Saga: leverage is feast or famine, Citadel’s manipulation should be investigated, and how this should impact your own portfolio mgmt. @MikeEdward_TTG 🧠💪🏼

[Michael Edward @MikeEdward_TTG]

Leverage can make you rich.

It can also wipe you out.

In this video, I break down the timeline of Leopold’s Situational Awareness hedge fund blowup, how leverage turned a bad situation into a catastrophic one, and the risk management lessons every investor should understand.

The biggest losses rarely come from being wrong.

They come from being unable to survive being wrong.

Risk management isn’t optional. It’s what keeps you in the game.

[Nate Winkler @nate_wink]

Retail investors become ‘their’ liquidity, again. We must evolve guys.

[TBPN @tbpn]

.@martinshkreli says funds were already shorting Situational Awareness stocks as early as Monday in anticipation of Leopold getting liquidated, which only accelerated the collapse.

"Some players were already positioning on Monday and Tuesday, looking to shoot against the fund."

"That's when you know somebody has to liquidate, and the best thing for you to do — unfortunately, sadly Darwinian — is to go sell all the positions you have in common and go start shorting everything they have. And it accelerates the downfall."

"This is a very common practice when these things happen. Not something I would do. But I know a wide number of funds that were shorting all these stocks, hoping to cause a panic and a crash."