Ignacio del Fierro

Ingeniero Comercial Investment Strategist at AFC Chile Asset Allocation

[Exencial Research Partners @exencial_RP]

Goldman Sachs Refining: Product Supply Challenge Even in De-Escalation (12 May '26)

System entered the Middle East disruption already near its limits aging capacity, few net additions & closures mean product tightness persists in 2H26 even if utilization returns to recent peaks

Refined products look more vulnerable than crude when run cuts are large, product inventories become the main buffer. Middle distillates (jet/diesel) are the key bottleneck; diesel demand is the most price-inelastic

Base case: Gulf exports normalize by end-June, global refinery runs by August yet 2H26 still sees crude inventories build while product inventories stay tight, with refining capacity re-emerging as the bottleneck

Severely adverse scenario: delayed normalization to Sept + a persistent 2.3 mb/d cut in operating capacity could push OECD product inventories in 4Q26 below their historical min days-of-use (last seen ~2003, incl. SPR)

~1–2% YoY demand destruction over 2Q–4Q26 may be needed to rebalance the oil product market vs ~3% during the GFC (4Q08–2Q09)

[Ignacio del Fierro @natodelfierro]

@nico_grau “No daré entrevista ni cuñas…” para que no le hagan preguntas por qué si le preguntan se complican explicando🤣🤣🤣

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Strait of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, is world’s busiest oil chokepoint, carrying ~29% of global maritime oil trade; ~1/5 of global oil consumption flows through Strait of Hormuz; ~84% of crude oil moving through Hormuz is destined for Asian markets
@VisualCap @EIAgov

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8%
*KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES

The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high (red), including a 10% correction today.

This market is not for the faint of heart.

South Korea's market is retail-dominated. It is estimated that up to 70% of its trading is retail, compared to about 20% for the NYSE.

For years, South Korea was the world's largest equity options market by contract volume, even larger than the United States. This is a remarkable fact for a mid-sized economy.

This is what retail-dominated markets do. They don't rally, they double. They don't correct, they crash.

South Korea imports 94% of its oil, with 75% coming from the Middle East. So, it is easy to see why its "degens" are panicking.

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

The market’s implied long-term real earnings growth for Japan has risen meaningfully and is now above that of the euro area.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Global gold funds posted +$6.2 billion in inflows last week, the 3rd consecutive weekly intake.

Year-to-date, gold funds have attracted a record +$148 billion in annualized inflows.

In other words, at this pace, investors will pour more capital into gold funds than the 2025 record of +$101 billion.

This would also be +200% higher than the 2020 pandemic year.

Gold funds saw +$19 billion in inflows in January, the strongest month on record.

Asset owners are accumulating even more assets.

[Natalia Gurushina @NGurushina]

J.P. Morgan published a helpful table with longer-term FX sensitivities to oil, which should provide guidance – especially in case of initial market overshoots.

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"Hyperscaler capex is expected in 2026 to be at approximately $646 billion, or about 2% of US GDP"

-Apollo Slok

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"The combined free cash flow for Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon is projected to fall 64% over the next four quarters to about $96 billion from roughly $270 billion in 2025"

@jwittenstein

[Ignacio del Fierro @natodelfierro]

@ESPNtenis “Otro punto que se roba el chileno” ya parece broma los comentarios, una lástima cómo dañan el deporte…

[Ignacio del Fierro @natodelfierro]

@ESPNtenis Que mierda de comentaristas los de ESPN, le celebran todo a Etcheverry y a Tabilo lo hacen mierda a pesar de estar jugando evidentemente mejor

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

https://t.co/ybZbwEGsIm

[Alcuin Press @AlcuinPress]

Western Civilization has largely been a force for good.

A prime example is the British Empire. In many places it occupied it:

-raised the standard of living
-developed infrastructure
-promoted education

It also single-handedly ended slavery for much of the world…🧵

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Japanese equity funds posted a record $11.8 billion in net outflows last week.

This brought the 4-week moving average of outflows to $4.0 billion, an all-time high.

Investors’ concerns over rapidly rising long-dated Japanese government bond yields were behind the outflows.

Additionally, investors withdrew $5.1 billion from US stock funds.

All while global equity funds saw a $9.5 billion in net outflows, the most this year.

Investors are taking profits after a sharp market recovery.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

🚨 The U.S. dollar is crashing even as bond yields surge.

It’s a rare, dangerous split.

This isn’t normal, it’s a flashing red alert for America’s financial system.

(a thread)

[TheBronxViking @TheBronxViking]

On Friday afternoon I saw two blocks of “unusual” $SPY calls come in on @unusual_whales 🕵🏼‍♂️🐳

Thousands upon thousands of short dated and far OTM calls.😵‍💫 The $580c’s all with volume greater than open interest 🤔

The $573c’s for today’s exp. ran from .93 to a high of 8.99….a gain of 866%🤯

The $580c’s for today’s exp. ran from .21 to 3.01….a 1333% gain.🤯

The $580c’s for 5/13 exp ran from .41 to 3.98….an 870% gain.🤯

The $580c’s for 5/14 ran from .60 to 4.54….a 656% gain.🤯

Did someone know how well the US/China talks would go this weekend?

Perhaps….

You gonna just cry about insider trading(that has been going on since the beginning of time)?

Or are you gonna finally level the playing field and invest in the best edge that retail traders have with @unusual_whales ?

[LIV Golf @livgolf_league]

CHAMPION IN MEXICO CITY 🏆

@joaconiemann claims his 5th LIV Golf League title 💪

#LIVGolfMexicoCity @torquegc_ https://t.co/aLfjttwjeG

[LIV Golf @livgolf_league]

For the third time this season 🏆🏆🏆

@joaconiemann is your LIV Golf Mexico Champion 🙌

#LIVGolfMexicoCity

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is insane:

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced.

The US now holds $36.2 trillion worth of government debt, meaning 25.4% of the total is set to mature.

This is the REAL reason rates are rising. Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Starlink @Starlink]

This past year, we activated Starlink in 27 new markets, and are now covering a global area home to 2.8 billion people, including those who live in some of the most remote places on Earth