Anyone that tells you they know what the gold price will be in 1 month or 6 months is either retarded or a charlatan.
Since ~1970, with the general separation of a mathematical link between currency and gold, over time, the price of gold has generally performed inverse to the level of trust in government and currency. That's the logic I use to price it higher in 5 years time.
Gold is money, but its also a commodity and its price responds to greed, fear, supply and demand. Past as prologue, in the 70s bull market, there were 2 pullbacks of 50% that lasted 2 years. At the end of the 90s bull market, 40% pullback took 4 years. We are 2 months and 20% into a pullback from the January high.
Where are we in this bull market? I think we are halfway, but the price of gold in currency could still go down 30% before it makes a new all time high. The safest time to buy gold and not experience a drawdown is when it makes a new all time high (yellow star on chart). If you are buying gold now, it could go lower before it goes higher. If you are buying gold and dollar cost averaging, using it as a long term savings technology, then every day is a good day to buy gold.
All the pundits will tell you that gold miners are where the alpha is. You gotta manage the stocks really closely, buy and hold winners, cut losers ruthlessly, needs some time and effort. If I was going to start this bull market again, I'd just buy a physical gold ETF and a bunch of royalty/streaming companies and go to the beach. I plan/hope to manage out of all my gold miners at higher gold prices.
#GOLD
@rjmontgomery I expect house price growth to continue EXACTLY as it has since 1970.
8% CAGR nominal, 2.5% real off 9.5% annual increase in board money.