Ayr Fenn

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@AvidCommentator Incredibly surprised it’s only 20% tbh

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@88888sAccount There are still-employed equities analysts?

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@AvidCommentator @parrapower2022 @samstrades 60km drive to the CBD. How on earth this is worth more than $700k I dont know.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@crushthemarket Stalemate - then we’ll approach spring, vendors will realise what’s happening and they’ll start undercutting to just offload places

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@cmkusher True, but with the macro envt being the way it is inc US rate situation I expect its going to be like fighting a house fire with a bucket.

Im sure there'll be some FHB cannon fodder sacrificed for sure though.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

I expect there's going to be a stalemate over winter as vendors dont want to adjust to the new normal. Then once more stock comes online for spring the panic will start along with undercutting.

REAs need volume, not high prices, so theyll start talking vendors down price wise sooner or later.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@REbagholders @rabbit_wealth Yep. Think things are going to get interesting in spring with a backlog of stock and then even more places listed on top

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

Then add all the homes sitting on the books albeit “off market”

Expect are industry will wave off concerns saying it’s the usual winter slowdown (despite incredible stock on market), then panic will really start in spring when stuff isnt moving and the seasonal listing upswing gets added.

Look at Central Coast listings, places are started to be posted with prices. GFC that’s what happened, then vendors start undercutting each other just to get the hell away from the property

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

Things are just getting started, economy is going to nosedive as its been hollowed out by property, hitching everything to that works until it doesnt.

Then there'll be all the second order impacts as people cant fund things via equity anymore - cars, private schools, travel. Our wages just simply arent enough (esp post-tax) to keep most of the current prices & demand ticking along.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@VladTheInflator Same story in Australia, and now our property market has come off the boil

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

Elements of AI are def bubble territory but like Dotcom crash there’s value that will get built out.

The thing with that is AI overall is going to smash all the other parts of the economy. Unemployment is way higher than reported, is only going to get worse as laid off workers have no where to go or massive income drops

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

Few people seem to have the systems thinking mindset around this. Cool - existing NG property investors are grandfathered, but whats the value of a place? What it can be sold on for. And if new buyers can only borrow so much, what does that then mean for your future sales price?

As for UE figures, would love the public vs private sector breakdown, including the private sector jobs that are just govt underwritten eg NDIS. Anecdotal - white collar professional jobs, seems every third person has either been made redundant or the writing is on the wall. Thatll just accelerate.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

Insane mindset that will change quickly. Even in the good times most reno’s are negative RoI, never increase the price anywhere near the $ out in for all the work.

I would not want to be a tradie in a regional area now with what I expect is about to happen - no more “deductible” meaningless upgrades, $2,000 air-conditioner checks or getting places “AirBnB ready”

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

There’s no supply side problem. It’s a red herring to allow developers to do whatever they like - get banked land rezoned for a value pump, or go and bulldoze a koala sanctuary because wE dOnT hAvE eNoUgH lAnD

The issue is property mobility and access, and they’ve arisen due to absurd market distortion largely due to tax and credit availability

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@bowtiedstocks That’s the playbook. Happened in the GFC, even our 18/19 lull never had the ~15% pullback publicised.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@of_woke4009 @samstrades I’ve thought for a long time that there’s obviously been a “gentleman’s agreement” for neither side to either raise nor attack the other on the immigration topic.

It’s the ace that allows (and has allowed) them both to paper over structural economic issues

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@parrapower2022 @RBASHAGGER Let’s see what happens with this one…

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@Cnboxer @SpachusAus @parrapower2022 This one’s a bit deceptive as it backs onto the M2. Although it’s obvious there’s a pullback with much better situated places going $1.7-$1.8m not the low $2ms of a couple of years ago. Also get some like this:

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@samstrades Have a look at how many listings have hit the market Central Coast on the portals over the past 2 weeks. And its big 4 bed places too.

[Ayr Fenn @AyrFenn]

@solo_dio_ Yep - then theres this.. (500sqm tbf)