Neil

Occam's Razor

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

Debate on cause of rise of the long term bond yields:

Two models, both produced by economists affiliated with the Fed:

1) ACM (it’s all real yields/growth/ppl expect Fed to hike)

2) KM (it is term premium)

Warsh picked the former interpretation. As did the rest of the FOMC, implied in the SEP

More than a year ago, debate on whether tariffs would generate persistent vs transitory inflation:

Two models also from Fed affiliated economists:

1) tariffs generate persistent inflation (new research)

2) tariffs deflationary in the long term, and initially a one off price change (from a long standing structural model that proved to be correct in 2018)

The FOMC adopted the first interpretation, until facts showed otherwise today.

Tell me that economics is not a dismal science.

At least the Fed should debate about this, disagree. That is not what the SEP show.

Group think is rearing its ugly head inside the Fed again.

[Izabella Kaminska @izakaminska]

The under appreciated signal from the Druckenmiller op-ed isn’t that he disagrees with Bessent; it’s that a man who’s long AI has turned to AI to convey a self-serving message and, in the process, inadvertently vapourised the mystique surrounding his own reputation and credibility in the market.

If so, that’s not a warning over US debt sustainability, it’s a demonstration of how blowback and reflexivity can get the better of you in markets.

https://t.co/ceuAbw2mb4

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@MasterFeed @izakaminska @martinbengtzen It is almost mandated in standardised tests for US higher education entry.

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@fede_intern Incredible analysis

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@stevehou I don’t understand the relationship

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@SaraEisen @RenMacLLC Awesome episode - excellent debate w/Neil Dutta on the labour market! You are great on podcasts!

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@therobemrich @CliffordAsness Brilliant

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@TylerDurden @grok what is it they have in common?

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@PeterBerezinBCA @crudechronicle The ten-year can’t be flat to r-star

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@IrvingSwisher Warsh also doesn’t seem to understand the mechanics of ample reserves on the basis of his WSJ op-ed

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@NickTimiraos The plumbing is working perfectly

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@stevehou @weaponizedFOMO Keynes’ Beauty Contest

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@Skydance should buy @CNBC

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@JimWhite Happy belated birthday sir! Massive respect to you

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@markoinny @grok please explain why this is so

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@Im_RobM Brilliant

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@TheChameleon26 @CliffordAsness @BillAckman Beautiful

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@friendly_gecko @TheStalwart Chapeau

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@theRealDanVCFA @NickTimiraos Agreed. Well said. The price action speaks for itself.

[Neil @neilsingh7]

@drgurner @biancoresearch It’s harder to play the long game when you’re levered