Nelson Bellows

hedging @ kalshi

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

@aleximm @steph_zhang @OwenColby @a16z bullish on businesses hedging cyber tail risk

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

@luanalopeslara when the doordash guy shows up with a salmon bento box

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Prediction markets are transparent, both in their incentives (people want to make money and avoid losing money) and their method (free markets aggregating millions of opinions).

Polls are not.

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

@MalwareTechBlog dm me

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

Read more: https://t.co/qnNgL5xM6X

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

Today we’re launching markets on Business Sector KPI’s.

Kalshi originally launched KPI markets to provide investors with direct exposure to the underlying events that move stocks.

If you had a thesis on Tesla’s Q4 car deliveries, instead of just buying or shorting the stock as a proxy, these markets enabled you to trade directly on the number of deliveries.

But what if your thesis isn't about a single company, but rather a broader, sector-wide trend?

If you are bullish on the adoption of robotics, delivery apps, or content streaming, you could buy a basket (ETF) of individual stocks in each sector, but in doing so, you become exposed to the external variables that influence stock prices.

Our new Sector KPI markets enable users to trade on aggregated performance.

For example, if you have a view on the mobile adoption of AI, you can now trade on the combined monthly downloads for Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.

We have KPI markets for aggregated credit card spend, point of sale data, and foot traffic, with more to come.

These markets offer a new way to express an opinion and, of course, hedge risk.

[Nelson Bellows @nelson_bellows]

@Nhull28 pro-america

[Nicolas Hull @Nhull28]

Every Tesla, every Starlink dish, every rocket on the pad. All of it needs tungsten. It’s in chips, jet engines, drones, missiles, and armor-piercing rounds.

It's in everything America is trying to build. China controls most of the world’s supply. Prices are up 500%+, including a 94% spike in six weeks this spring.

Oil has futures. Gold has futures. Copper has futures. Tungsten had nothing. So we built it.

Through @PillarHQ, an Ohio metals distributor locked in protection against tungsten prices on Kalshi. A real American business, hedged against a geopolitical supply shock, on a market that didn’t exist until now.

[Ryan Bourne @MrRBourne]

NEW from me in @NRO: Prediction markets aren't "just gambling," even for sports.

https://t.co/4Jmw27ULXN