$AAOI reports earnings tomorrow and this is what I'm expecting.
2025 revenue was $456M. Management guided $1B+ for 2026 with $120M+ in non-GAAP operating profit. The business is set to more than double in a single year after running $190-250M annually from 2019 through 2024.
> Q1 guide is $150-165M vs Street at $157M. CATV running hot, 800G firmware slip from Q4 pushed shipments into Q1, and they beat EPS by 91% last print. Setup favors a beat.
> Q2 is what matters. Management has telegraphed it as the first profitable quarter and the start of the 800G/1.6T ramp. Above $185M with positive NG EPS and the move continues.
> OFC capacity slide showed 650K combined 800G + 1.6T units/month by Q4 26, 30% above prior guidance. 930K/month by Q4 27. That's a ~$6B annualized run rate from two product lines against a $14B market cap.
Full pre-earnings breakdown linked below.
$AAOI $LITE $COHR $AEHR $VIAV