teva

[teva @nevuteva]

Fintwit/geopol twitter is basically like if you had a team of hundreds of analysts working for you 24/7 for free

Except 60% of them are retarded and 30% are foreign psyops

That last 10% is gold tho

[teva @nevuteva]

@jonmunier Good stuff

[teva @nevuteva]

Welp stopped out

[teva @nevuteva]

Am short LITE and CIEN now

[teva @nevuteva]

Didn’t get filled but there should be future bounces to short if things stay bad. We’ll see!

[teva @nevuteva]

CL at $113 and they're pumping these

Still seems like a good short 🤷‍♂️

[teva @nevuteva]

@based16z This particular war probably ends quickly but there will be more. We entered an era of increasing global conflict a few years ago

[teva @nevuteva]

@degentradingLSD Crazy that they're letting us short ~ATHs on photonics today

[teva @nevuteva]

@bergealex4 Nice straw man

[teva @nevuteva]

I present to you the quantum-resistant dark horse

[teva @nevuteva]

@0xbigmikey @kwaker_oats_ Yellow

[teva @nevuteva]

Just like with crypto bubbles, people's sentiments regarding AI have a reflexive relationship to asset prices.

I think the degree to which this is true will be quite surprising

[teva @nevuteva]

It's gonna be insane watching people in a few months/years talk about how AI was 'never really broadly useful' and that AGI is much further away than we thought.

That's when you go all in

[teva @nevuteva]

Didn’t get filled but there should be future bounces to short if things stay bad. We’ll see!

[teva @nevuteva]

I'm interested in shorting photonics:
- most speculative leg of the AI trade (equivalent to the riskiest/shittiest alts pumping at the end of a crypto bull after majors have topped)
- up 50-100% in the last 3-4 weeks
- macro environment has gotten decisively shittier over the last month, and is unlikely to return to what it previously was any time soon -> bad for future AI capex

Simple idea, but seems asymmetric at current prices

[teva @nevuteva]

@negligible_cap Is this not old news

[teva @nevuteva]

You can be bullish AI, even extremely bullish, without being retarded about it

[teva @nevuteva]

Yeah we can stop going down when people like this stop smoking crack

[Super Dario @inductionheads]

$2.5 T of revenue a year
$1T profit

That means Nvidia is currently priced at 4 - yes 4 - times earnings

5x upside would be low

[teva @nevuteva]

Waiting on a broad market bounce before entering. Would rather miss this trade than get blown out due to shorting too soon.

Some rough setups below. Think tight stops and being willing to re-short higher is the move here

[teva @nevuteva]

I'm interested in shorting photonics:
- most speculative leg of the AI trade (equivalent to the riskiest/shittiest alts pumping at the end of a crypto bull after majors have topped)
- up 50-100% in the last 3-4 weeks
- macro environment has gotten decisively shittier over the last month, and is unlikely to return to what it previously was any time soon -> bad for future AI capex

Simple idea, but seems asymmetric at current prices

[teva @nevuteva]

Many are understandably worried about this as it pertains to holding assets on crypto rails.

While it’s definitely a concern, lindy assets on lindy chains (BTC, ETH, etc) should generally be safer from AI-discovered vulnerabilities. This is because their code has already been out in the open for years or decades, with a perpetual $10-100B+ bug bounty for any would-be hackers.

That being said, there’s never been a better time to spread your assets across many different chains, protocols, banks, etc.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Anthropic data leak reveals the existence of “Claude Mythos,” a new AI model that reportedly presents unprecedented cybersecurity risks.