Nick Sutcliffe

[Battle of Britain @MuseumKent]

Rest in Peace dear ‘Paddy’ - our last of the ‘Few’ who we honour alongside all his comrades at the Museum.

Our flag will fly at half mast for the next seven days to mark the passing of the great man.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Brilliant:

[Led By Donkeys @ByDonkeys]

If Trump was President in 1940

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

@PaulKGB BA spokesperson claimed: “The vast majority of customers were rebooked onto same-day alternative flights to get them to their destination as soon as possible.” How vast was that majority?!

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Westminster politics was so much better even in the late Noughties - when we still had real grown ups with decades of experience behind them. Seems a world away now…

[William Hague @WilliamJHague]

Just been sent this. Think he won that one.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

@GaynorHaliday 500 is a clever number because even that estimate would in aggregate be 15,000 farms with an uncertain future based on the average IHT event only being once every 30 years for each generation of a farming family. An annual number massively underplays it. #farm

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

@GavinBarwell Likewise on 1st May 1997 (General Election Day) the Conservatives won back control of a swathe of County Councils

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Wise words...

[Robert Ford @robfordmancs]

Given how volatile politics is now, I don't think a substantial Con recovery can be counted out. But I don't think it can happen until and unless the party develops an interest in speaking to the people and places who actually decide elections. The current Labour team has a laser focus on such voters and until you're on the pitch competing for their favours, you're going to get crushed.

[Robert Ford @robfordmancs]

If you don't understand the incentives and consraints of the electoral system and political geography you are competing with, then you can't win. Squeezing Reform will achieve next to nothing if it puts off Con-Lab or Con-LD switchers, who count much more.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

How to win a General Election...

[Robert Ford @robfordmancs]

Targeting the local winner is smart strategy because votes won from them count double - one off their pile, one on to yours. A smart Tory strategy would therefore start with “how do we win back votes from Lab and LDs?”

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Many in the Conservatives will ignore this reality…

[James Kanagasooriam @JamesKanag]

The Conservatives lost votes to everyone. 25% of the 2019 vote to Reform, 23% to the left. The latter count double. Losing votes to the left ensured election defeat. Bleeding so heavily to reform turned that defeat into a cataclysm.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

The whopping 10% error in the poll lead by most of the big well established opinion polling brands is quite something. The scale of this failure outstrips many other general election polling failures such as 2015.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

All the votes are now in.

@VerianGroup were the most accurate pollster based on final call RMSE.

@NorstatUKPolls and @Moreincommon_ come in 2nd and 3rd.

Every pollster overestimated Labour and underestimated the Conservatives.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

@MarkieStuartie April 1992 seems like it was a different world?

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Robert Buckland on good form tonight on what the Conservative Party needs to do next.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Getting ready to hear the 10 pm exit poll sooner on FM radio than the time delayed digital television signal.

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

This really sums up the poorest general election campaign I can ever recall - "Tom Newton Dunn: Why I'm going to spoil my ballot at this election" https://t.co/02eHtWFYUA

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

One week in it’s still looking like it’s all over: https://t.co/4entdLZbLQ

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Personally, I'm looking forward to what might be the dullest and most uneventful general election campaign & outcome since 2005. I'm sure there will be some amusement along the way but it will be good if we can actually get through one which is just plain old predictable #GE2024

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

and so the deaths go on…

[BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking]

Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny has died, Russian media report, citing the prison service https://t.co/VXHaqgq9Y4

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Tonight's ES editorial is on the money: "The fundamental truth is this: British households are set to end a parliament poorer than at the start for the first time since the Second World War" The UK economy is in recession (and becoming a bit more European) https://t.co/g2t8cudgCV

[Nick Sutcliffe @nicksutcliffe]

Tonight's @EveningStandard cartoon by @Adamstoon1