Rest in Peace dear ‘Paddy’ - our last of the ‘Few’ who we honour alongside all his comrades at the Museum.
Our flag will fly at half mast for the next seven days to mark the passing of the great man.
@PaulKGB BA spokesperson claimed: “The vast majority of customers were rebooked onto same-day alternative flights to get them to their destination as soon as possible.” How vast was that majority?!
Westminster politics was so much better even in the late Noughties - when we still had real grown ups with decades of experience behind them. Seems a world away now…
@GaynorHaliday 500 is a clever number because even that estimate would in aggregate be 15,000 farms with an uncertain future based on the average IHT event only being once every 30 years for each generation of a farming family. An annual number massively underplays it. #farm
Given how volatile politics is now, I don't think a substantial Con recovery can be counted out. But I don't think it can happen until and unless the party develops an interest in speaking to the people and places who actually decide elections. The current Labour team has a laser focus on such voters and until you're on the pitch competing for their favours, you're going to get crushed.
If you don't understand the incentives and consraints of the electoral system and political geography you are competing with, then you can't win. Squeezing Reform will achieve next to nothing if it puts off Con-Lab or Con-LD switchers, who count much more.
Targeting the local winner is smart strategy because votes won from them count double - one off their pile, one on to yours. A smart Tory strategy would therefore start with “how do we win back votes from Lab and LDs?”
The Conservatives lost votes to everyone. 25% of the 2019 vote to Reform, 23% to the left. The latter count double. Losing votes to the left ensured election defeat. Bleeding so heavily to reform turned that defeat into a cataclysm.
The whopping 10% error in the poll lead by most of the big well established opinion polling brands is quite something. The scale of this failure outstrips many other general election polling failures such as 2015.
All the votes are now in.
@VerianGroup were the most accurate pollster based on final call RMSE.
@NorstatUKPolls and @Moreincommon_ come in 2nd and 3rd.
Every pollster overestimated Labour and underestimated the Conservatives.
This really sums up the poorest general election campaign I can ever recall - "Tom Newton Dunn: Why I'm going to spoil my ballot at this election" https://t.co/02eHtWFYUA
Personally, I'm looking forward to what might be the dullest and most uneventful general election campaign & outcome since 2005. I'm sure there will be some amusement along the way but it will be good if we can actually get through one which is just plain old predictable #GE2024
Tonight's ES editorial is on the money: "The fundamental truth is this: British households are set to end a parliament poorer than at the start for the first time since the Second World War" The UK economy is in recession (and becoming a bit more European) https://t.co/g2t8cudgCV