Nicole Bailey

Senior Analyst. Views are my own.

[Chris Combs (iterative design enjoyer) @DrChrisCombs]

In all seriousness this may have been my favorite shot from Artemis II so far

[Colby Badhwar @ColbyBadhwar]

Here's then EUCOM Commander General Cavoli testifying that he initially doubted the Ukrainians ability to use PATRIOT, but they have become so proficient with it that the US Army is now learning from them.

5/25

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver":

"Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s.

"An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn?

"As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise.

"What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it.

"It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives.

"Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are.

"We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys."

[Kiel Institut @kielinstitute]

🇺🇦 #UkraineSupportTracker: Europe steps up: In 2025, European military aid rose +67% & financial/humanitarian aid +59% vs. 2022–24 averages - compensating for the US withdrawal.
Military aid increasingly borne by small no of countries 👉 https://t.co/lAxMAmVov2
#MSC2026

[toomas hendrik ilves @IlvesToomas]

It’s that time of year again, when the western intelligence community gets its hands on the annual report from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Enjoy 😉 https://t.co/nPV4MXcUcJ

[Nicole Bailey @nik_0713]

@mobbs_mentality @DanHollaway I’ve been waiting for someone to call this out.

[Nicole Bailey @nik_0713]

@RabbiUkraine This. 💯

[Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 @sikorskiradek]

It doesn't seem like the best way of helping Ukraine to succeed.

[Kyrylo Budanov @Kyrylo_Budanov]

I have accepted the proposal of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to head the Office of the President. I will continue to serve Ukraine.

The position of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine is another line of responsibility before the state. It is both an honor and a profound commitment, especially at this decisive moment in our country’s history, to focus on issues critical to Ukraine’s strategic security.

I am grateful for the trust. I extend my sincere gratitude to my fellow service members and to the entire DIU team for our work.

We will continue to do what must be done — to strike the enemy, defend Ukraine, and work tirelessly toward a just peace.

Together, we will continue to fight for a free and secure future for Ukraine.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

CIA says there was no Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

“Funding Ukraine’s war effort over four years will cost European governments between $606 and $972 billion, but it would cost them almost double, between $1.4 and $1.8 trillion, to reinforce its eastern flank if Moscow gets its way.”

[UNITED24 Media @United24media]

⚡️ Budanov: Russia never planned such a long war.

Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Moscow would have already lost if not for help from allies like North Korea, adding Ukraine could liberate all occupied land with stronger Western support.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

A HIMARS strike in Belgo would be interesting for several reasons right now...

[Financial Times @FT]

Breaking news: Saudi Arabia has signed a 'strategic mutual defence' pact with Pakistan, signalling to the US and Israel that the kingdom is willing to diversify its security alliances as it looks to bolster its deterrence. https://t.co/YY9Q7nyEWr

[Kyrylo Shevchenko @KShevchenkoReal]

Poland refuses to reopen its border with Belarus, cutting China off from a €25B/year trade artery. Some 90% of China-EU rail freight moves through Poland, now frozen amid Zapad-2025 drills and a Russian drone incursion. Beijing asked Warsaw to restore the route (vital for platforms like Temu & Shein) but after 3 hours of talks, FM Sikorski said no. With sea routes slower and air transport up to 30% more expensive, Europe’s e-commerce supply chains risk serious disruption. #ChinaEconomy #EUEconomy
Photo: ResearchGate

[Sari Arho Havrén @SariArhoHavren]

Europe “must forge a new China policy on the basis that the country is deliberately prolonging the war on their continent.”

Important read by @ivana_karaskova and @a_bachulska

https://t.co/t2c1uSlOCy

[Jimmy Rushton @JimmySecUK]

For New Lines Magazine: I spent a week and a half with Ukraine's elite Third Assault Brigade, the largest and one of the most effective fighting forces within the Ukrainian military, and not coincidently, one of the least 'Soviet'.

With @MichaelDWeiss.
https://t.co/3AejbpHqSr

[Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 @sikorskiradek]

@PM_ViktorOrban No, Victor. The incident proves you should get off the fence and condemn Russian aggression. We ask you to unblock the disbursement of EU funds for defence, approve tougher sanctions on the aggressor and withdraw your veto on starting Ukraine's EU accession negotiations.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Updated EU "Wall of Shame:" new all-time high for Dutch exports going to Kyrgyzstan in latest data for May 2025. Countries in orange clamped down on transshipments to Russia. Countries in blue refuse to. The EU is deeply broken. Short-term greed overrides medium-term security...

[Nicole Bailey @nik_0713]

@WarOnDumb Well said.