Mark Louis

Macro PM. St Pete.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@MarketPalmer_ Inheritocracy™

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@greg_ip It's logically fraudulent to argue for whatever inflation measure is currently running cooler.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@sidprabhu You also cannot inflate away the majority of our obligations: TIPS, medicare, social security, military obligations, etc.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@briangobosox What would happen if the Fed adjusted rates weekly such that 3-year inflation expectations remained at ~2.2%?

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@sidprabhu We now live in an inheritocracy.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@Invested_In_You 20y TIPS. Judging by comments, people are way too sanguine about the odds of a 50% correction in risk assets that takes 10-20 years to recoup.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@realEstateTrent Some selection bias there. Lots of 60s with health issues popping up. Do not wait that long to do the bucket list.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@notahypocrite88 @Killa_kevy @orrdavid CIHOPUS Index shows otherwise. Any idea which is more accurate?

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@sidprabhu But these are sophisticated allocators leaving massive sums of money on the table if inflation expectations of ~2.4% are significantly wrong. It’s possible of course; but hard to hand-wave away.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@nickkokonas @thePaulruss @nytimes @nytopinion But if you die and pass it down with stepped up basis, your heirs can (and usually do) spend it. This is income with no taxation.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@SteveMiran Are you looking equally hard where measured inflation might understate reality or is this exercise asymmetric?

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@sidprabhu I'd add a lack of clarity around "supply shocks." Above-trend NGDP is highly suggestive of demand pressure more so than supply pressure. Yes, there may be certain supply shocks at the same time - but the demand pressure will drive the spillover effects.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@NickTimiraos So he's going to regain credibility on inflation by changing the definition of inflation. Ok, sure.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@briangobosox @DannyDayan5 2.80 in 20y is probably the sweet spot. No need to take the extra 10 years duration.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@mark_dow Supply shocks cannot cause above-trend NGDP growth without monetary accommodation.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@DavidBeckworth The Fed should be above using tricks like "that wasn't defined."

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@TheBostonView If an increase in oil were contractionary you'd see a decline in NGDP growth. We're seeing an acceleration.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@sidprabhu You cannot reconcile the "supply shocks" theory with above-trend NGDP. Doesn't add up.

[Mark Louis @NoBServations]

@WarMonitor3 Inflation