Cassandra yawning

UK fund manager, skier, cyclist, wine lover

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@robin_j_brooks @RemindMeOfThis in 1 month

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Today I watched as the security guard even walked to the far end of the store so he didn’t need to get involved, even though it was obvious what was going on. When will the government do something about this? @UKLabour @mtpennycook

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Almost every day I go into my local Sainsbury’s there will be a gang of 2-4 youths who will just brazenly wander in and steal stuff. I've asked the security guards what they can do, but they say their hands are tied as they’re not allowed to even touch the offenders.

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@RealJimChanos I'm assuming that's all in the S-1? Otherwise that's a breach of securities laws as we're in quiet period?

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@jonoringer The UK's AIM market is a bit like this. But be careful what you wish for!

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@netcapgirl it's worked before: "We are a community company committed to maximum global impact. Our mission is to elevate the world’s consciousness. We have built a worldwide platform that supports growth, shared experiences and true success" WeWork S-1, 2019

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odds increasing... the IPO might even be creating its own doom-loop: markets scared of the amount of paper so sell off, postponing the IPO?

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Left-tail risk thoughts: what if the $SPCX SpaceX IPO doesn't go ahead? (either due to mkt conditions, or possibly too little institutional demand at the price)

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@boazweinstein He's done +66% in US equities since 2020 though (3rd biggest holding in LTI)

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@boazweinstein and YTD to end April

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@boazweinstein 5 years in a row

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@DeepSailCapital @inflectionecon MS price target split by business line. It seems it's always been valued on whatever "next year's" business line is going to be

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@realkenchigbo @Convertbond I've got some bad news for you

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@saylordocs that's a LOT of inflation he's predicting

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@gruust totally agree on YCA.L. weird that everyone bidding nuclear power station manufacturers to the moon, yet YCA which owns the fuel is close to a record wide discount

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@robin_j_brooks "No big pullback for other European countries either". Literally your next chart (and German arrivals nearly 2x Italian):

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If LLM's are really commoditised, how does Anthropic make c$1k/a revenue per user vs OpenAI $25/a?

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@Convertbond @Barchart Is the top 1%'s wealth going up because a) they are hogging all the great companies in the private market, or b) private market valuations are way out of whack with what the public market would pay? (last 10 big SV capital raises were done at a median 108x revenues...)

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@MartinShkreli a bit at the margin against those numbers, but surely if you do a day trade it's unfunded and an overnight trade costs you funding? not sure this is ever taken into account

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@CasinoCapital you're playing investing on easy mode if you have friends like those!

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@LogicalThesis @CasinoCapital how's it going?