Northern Tape

Liquidity, leverage and on-chain, cross-checked. Calls logged and scored in public. Not advice.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

The whole idea, in one chart.

My rules-based model sat in cash through the 2022 bear market, from about January 2022 to October 2023. BTC fell about 67% in that stretch. The model's worst drop was about half that.

Backtest from 2022, 0% fees, tuned on that history. Live it's slightly behind BTC right now, and I score it here every week.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@glassnode Whales short, crowd paying up to stay long. That mismatch rarely resolves in the crowd's favour, and it's usually the longs who get flushed first.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@glassnode SOPR is sitting right on 1, so coins are moving at breakeven with no profit left to take. A rule built on holders in profit probably needs that to tick back up before it fires.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

My model is still fully in, mostly SOL, so I'm wearing this too. Its slow trend read is fine. The faster one has been fading for about two weeks. A rules-based exit doesn't care how crowded funding looks, only whether the downtrend confirms.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Longs are paying more to hold BTC now than they did at $85k.

Price slipped about 4% this week and funding, what longs pay shorts to stay in, went the other way. That's leverage nobody has cleared yet.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Setups like this rarely drift for long. Price holds here and funding cools toward flat, which is a quiet reset. Or a daily close under roughly $78k turns those longs into sellers.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Options pay 38 vol. The month delivered about 25.

Two days before FOMC, with spot at the bottom of its range, that gap is the market pricing a break. If price stays pinned after Wednesday, the sellers collect.

(Mostly in SOL on my side, so I'd feel a break more than most.)

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap If his all-clear is a liquidity call, Thursday's Fed print the day after FOMC is the one that matters.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap Old coins moving to new hands is normal. It only turns ugly if those new hands get pushed below their entry, and we're not there yet.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@cryptoquant_com @Darkfost_Coc Whales distributing into retail bids. Historically not the combo that marks a bottom.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@velo_xyz Same price, a lot more leverage on it now. Open interest up about 4% this week while price slipped. Who blinks first?

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@AxelAdlerJr That cost basis sits near $76k on our end too. What bugs me is OI kept climbing all week into this, so a slip under it probably isn't a slow bleed.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Fed liquidity fell about $60B last week. Someone's going to call it the top.

It's mostly Treasury refilling its cash account. The line's swung like this all summer and gone nowhere.

What I'd actually watch is Thursday's print, the day after FOMC. A break under the summer floor near $5.75T while leverage keeps stacking is when it starts to bite.

My model only reads daily closes. Still fully in.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap Nice for miners. For price I care more that stablecoin supply shrank about 1% this month. If Tether starts minting again, that's fresh cash. Anyone seeing it turn yet?

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Sunday scorecard. My model is behind BTC since going live in Aug, and not by a little.

It got in front briefly in late Sep, leaning hard into SOL. Then SOL gave it all back.

My calls this week: the $84k breakout didn't stick. The long flush under $80k did show up, Saturday.

Still fully in. A confirmed BTC downtrend on daily closes sends it to cash, a wick doesn't.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@jvisserlabs Funds degrossed in equities. Crypto perps haven't, OI's still climbing with longs paying funding. Bottom calls feel early to me until that clears.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap Meanwhile about $5B in stablecoins got redeemed this month. Mints turning back up is what'd make me believe it.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@qiaohailong @CoinMarketCap Funding's still positive, so longs look like the crowded side to me. Saturday already flushed a chunk of them though, so I wouldn't bet the house on it.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@AxelAdlerJr FOMC Wednesday should force it. Just hoping it's not both directions in one candle 😅

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

About $5B in stablecoins got redeemed since early Oct. Open interest went the other way.

So the bounces lately run on borrowed money, not new cash. Saturday's wick is what that looks like.

Fresh mints with OI cooling would fix it. My model's still fully in for now. It only steps aside on a confirmed downtrend.