404NOTFOUND

Raconteur,disco reveler,flâneur,

[Kaiser Kuo @KaiserKuo]

He could be viciously satirical (see 垃圾场, a song whose lyrics included, 我们住的地方就像个垃圾场/��们都跟虫子一样/ 吃的是良心，拉的是思想）but also incredibly tender (see the song 钟鼓楼).

[Chenchen Zhang 🤦🏻‍♀️ @chenchenzh]

@jacobin check your facts. this has shifted in the 2020s.
https://t.co/zJYqdD1AC5

[Benedict @carto_graph]

The difference between HK and Singapore is that Hong Kong is the Anglo spirit with Chinese characteristics, while Singapore is the Chinese spirit with Anglo characteristics.

[Yuen Yuen Ang @yuenyuenang]

Dear readers from all over the world - thank you!

This year marks 10th anniversary of “How China Escaped the Poverty Trap.” It couldn’t have scaled walls and traveled without your support & sharing

The book is now FREE to download (link below)

https://t.co/OX87veC0RW

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

A deep insight into China's dating match scenario. "Security comes first"mind is pervasive and deeply entrenched.

[Desmond Shum @DesmondShum]

What China’s Dating Market Says About Today’s China

As you can probably tell, I follow almost every corner of Chinese society. One of the most revealing is online dating consultation.

The format is strikingly standardized. It often feels less like courtship than an investment committee reviewing an investment project.

First: age.

For women, younger is better. For men, the discounting begins at 30.

Then: family wealth.

Households wealth of the entire family are graded A6, A7, A8, A9 and above. A7.5 means roughly RMB 5 million in assets. A8.2 means about RMB 20 million. Divide by seven for a rough US-dollar figure.

Then come the balance-sheet questions of the individual:

Do you own an apartment? A car? Is there a mortgage? How much debt remains?

Appearance is scored next. Five is ordinary. Five-and-a-half is the best-looking person in a class of 40. Six is among the best-looking in an entire year.

Then occupation. Today, 体制内—employment inside the Party-state system—carries a substantial premium.

Family background is also marked up or down. Divorced parents are a negative. Parents without pensions are a negative.

Geography has its own hierarchy: Beijing and Shanghai, provincial capitals, smaller cities, counties and villages.

Everything is priced, ranked and discounted.

What shocks me is not simply the materialism. It is how little room leaves for emotion.

Hollywood may have oversold “follow your heart.” But watching marriage reduced almost entirely to asset matching, downside protection and possible marrying up the social ladder—is unsettling in a different way.

There seems to be a growing consensus in China that, in a slowing economy, you cannot afford to lead with your heart. Marriage is increasingly treated as a risk-management exercise. Security matters more than possibility. That is one reason a government job now carries such enormous appeal: lower upside, perhaps, but a much smaller perceived risk of falling.

Perhaps I am being nostalgic.

The China of the 1990s and 2000s felt like a young person looking up at the sky, imagining how far the future might carry them.

Today’s young Chinese seem more often to be looking down at the ground, calculating each step—and making sure the next one does not send them over a cliff.

[余温 @gkxspace]

建议大家都把这个号码存进通讯录：[phone]

它是一个活在 iMessage 里的 AI，你发短信派活，它能操纵一台云端手机！！！

Reddit 在国内是出了名的上不去，挑网还爱封号，但信息又极度优质，很适合看最新的AI讨论、找产品需求、做产品调研！

而且就算你就算能上去，也不清���到底应该去哪个社区刷帖，整个时间成本也是非常高。

我试着给 [phone] 发了句话：
"帮我看看AI相关社区的帖子，大家在讨论什么，把讨论焦点和高赞观点整理给我"
它就开始调用云端手机执行，找到一些高质量AI社区刷帖，几分钟后，给我了一份总结文档。

我接着又发了句：
"把这些帖子评论区里老外抱怨最多、反复在找的东西整理成一份清单"
他同样会按照我们的需求去刷帖，我们做产品的看这份清单是机会，别人还在刷资讯，你就已经让AI给你拿到需求了。

并且，我全程没开🪜，手机里也没装任何新App。

原理就是：@airtap_ai 在云端跑着一台真手机，你发短信派活，它就在那台手机上��开网页和App，国内上不去的平台，对它来说就是本地环境。

顺着这个思路，其实还可以干很多事：
1、翻YouTube上AI Agent相关的高播放视频，把评论区被问得最多的问题整理成选题清单
2、查Gmail有没有新邮件，有没有新任务，或者然它把刚收到的验证码发给我（你就不用打开🪜了）
3、存定时任务："每天早上8点把Reddit热帖自动跑一遍发给你"

当然，当你有一台 AI云手机，玩法远不止这些，并且你也不用装App不用注册，第一条消息发出去账号就开好了，目前免费开放！
#justtextit #textyourapps #airtap

[Wayen @wayen_ai]

香港三所顶尖大学（港大、港中文、港城大）联合搞了个开放学术图书平台，历史、哲学、法律、人类学……覆盖挺广，PDF 直接下，不用注册，完全免费。

知识不该被锁在付费墙后面。对自学者、研究者、或者单纯想读点严肃内容的人来说，这是个实在的资源。

🔗 https://t.co/YMCvYe4ymS

[Blue Bear @Bluebearmonkey]

“‘Do you have a plan B?’ asked a family friend. Stupidly, we did not. Han Feizi Junior would be the second student from his mucky muck international school in Hong Kong to attend Tsinghua University.”

https://t.co/A9RUZ3uTOj

[李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele]

6月24日，格隆汇发布题为《中国个税的四张脸谱》的信息图，对中国个人所得税缴纳情况进行了梳理分析。
信息图显示，在全国约14亿人口中，缴纳个人所得税的人数超过1.1亿，占总人口比例约8%。在个税纳税申报人员中，收入排名前10%的人群缴纳了超过90%的个人所得税。
其中，年收入100万元以上的高收入群体约占全部申报人数的1%，但其缴纳的个人所得税占全部个税收入的一半以上。
从地区分布来看，北京、上海、江苏、浙江和广东五地合计贡献了全国约64%的个人所得税收入，显示个税收入高度集中于经济较发达地区。
从税源结构看，工资薪金所得仍是个人所得税最主要来源，占个税收入的69%；其余部分则来自经营所得、劳务报酬、财产转让等收入项目。

[周览资源 @grgerwcwetwet]

闲鱼=中国版暗网，只要暗号对，什么都能搜出来。
目前这个网站正在收集一些咸鱼黑话，目前在收集中，不算全，不过想法挺不错的，感兴趣可以收藏

https://t.co/PVJ7RskJuV

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Very good Rhodium piece on the challenges facing the Chinese economy. The good news, Rhodium notes, is that there is pretty much a consensus among economic policy advisors (although, I would add, not necessarily among policymakers) on the urgent need to rebalance the economy away from investment and towards consumption.

The bad news is that there is no consensus on how the costs of this rebalancing are to be allocated within the economy – nor, I would also add, even an acknowledgement that this is the key issue in rebalancing. With, broadly speaking, three sectors in the economy, the transfers needed to raise consumption must be allocated either within the household sector or from the business or government sectors.

In the first case, the transfers would come from rich and middle class households (e.g. through higher income taxes, property taxes, or cuts in services) and go to migrant workers and the rural poor. But with the middle class already suffering from job uncertainty and the property decline, this might be socially and politically more disruptive than Beijing would want to consider. What is more, the main reason for low consumption in China is not income inequality within households but rather the low overall household share of income, so even if Beijing were willing to implement such policies, they wouldn't solve the deeper underlying problem.

Another way to raise the consumption share involves transfers from businesses to households (e.g. raise interest rates, revalue the currency, reduce subsidies to businesses, close down the weakest players in sectors with low profitability and excess capacity, cut spending on logistical infrastructure). The problem here is that after years of operating on massive direct and indirect subsidies, many Chinese manufacturers are incredibly competitive but not terrible efficient (in the sense of being able to create more economic value than they absorb directly and indirectly through subsidies and transfers).

Without these transfers, in other words, an awful lot of businesses would be forced either to cut capacity sharply or to close. If this were to happen quickly, it would be very disruptive for employment and the overall economy, but if this were to happen over at least a decade or more of careful restructuring, it would require a lot more foreign forbearance on trade and a lot more debt.

The third way to raise the consumption share of GDP is to allocate the costs to the central or local governments. The right way to do this, as Rhodium notes, might involve directly or indirectly transferring ownership of businesses and assets from local governments to households.

The wrong way to do this would be to increase China's debt burden even further. Unfortunately even though China has the second highest debt burden in the world (after Japan's) and the fastest-growing debt burden in history, increasing debt further would be politically easier in the short term than transferring government assets to households. The key point here is that local governments should not liquidate assets to fund additional spending, as they seem to be doing now, but rather either to pay down debt or to fund transfers to households. But this almost certainly involves a significant change in the distribution of income within China and, with it, a potentially disruptive redistribution of power.

So if it is so hard to rebalance, why not ignore rebalancing and just double down on the existing model? The problem here is that while certain aspects of the Chinese economy may seem in good shape, in fact the overall economy is struggling, and it is only massive increases in debt every year that allow Beijing to continue to achieve its growth targets. But as happened to every other country that followed this model, debt is always what causes the ultimate unraveling, and it is much better for China to begin the difficult adjustment while it still has fiscal space than to be forced into adjustment when it no longer has fiscal space.

[shu fen @shufen46250836]

今晚美股走势很差，没什么好买的，来X上敲敲字，聊一个目前市场正在交易的叙事，美联储加息预期

就在刚刚，美30Y收益率突破5.1%，这是次贷危机爆发前新高，10Y收益率离红线仅一步之遥，目前FedWatch显示，美年内加息概率超过60%

如果单纯看到这些数据，你会觉得加息会水到渠成的事情，但先不要笃定，我们把时间拉回23年的3月，那时候市场所有数据信息和叙事反应都笃定美联储会加息，当时，3月加息50个基���的概率已经到了78%，美股狂跌

随后市场对于加息的预期反转，后面事情大家都知道了，硅谷银行倒闭，市场开始要求美联储降息100BP，从加息到狂降息的市场预期反转来的好快，这个时候也不关注通胀数据了。

虽然23年3月美联储如期加息25个基点，但市场预期经历了加息50BP到降息100BP空间的反转，我举这个例子想表达的，是因为今年年初市场还普遍预期美国年内降息两次左右；现在开始计价重启加息。

你看市场预期总是短暂脆弱的，是基于数据推理本身的，但数据这个东西，美联储有充分的预期管理经验，回到这次美联储加息预期上，我想分享一些数据之外的逻辑，这些是碎片化但又充满了逻辑合理性。

第一，本次加息预期提升的核心逻辑是战争叙事下油价高位带来的高通胀预期，��考海湾战争时期通胀的水平，此时美联储并未加息，反而采取了降息

第二，历史上美联储从未在降息周期内未达到利率水平目标的前提下加息，本轮降息周期的利率目标是3%或者以下

第三，CPI接近4%，并不是加息的核心叙事，当处于降息周期中，CPI接近4%甚至超过，没有任何一次是加息的

第四，新美联储主席沃什竞选目标是将利率控制在3%以下，恰恰是沃什的竞选宣言，才有了当选主席的前提

第五，高通胀是由于高油价带来的，高油价是由海峡关闭导致的，海峡打开就能缓解通胀，海峡开不开，川普团队有充分的议价权利，所以为什么要用加息这杯毒药呢

第六，虽然4月议息会议有四张反对票，但反过来的逻辑包括鲍威尔本人其他9名委员的意见是接受降息的，

如果美联储今年加息，应会不知道这阶段会对美股��成不亚于2000年股灾，川普团队会接受吗。

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@glueckgruene 可能是大脑前额叶逐渐成熟了吧，也是阅历增加了。anyways，越来越好的心态是值得肯定的🫡

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@vivianwubeijing 🉑！

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@Changxche typo here?

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@yuren477 🤩🤩🤩好的

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@thewindisfree 现在继续🈳可以吗哥

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@fupenglondon What's possible ramifications for gold/silver?@grok

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

very outrageous.

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

🚨BREAKING: Stanford proved that ChatGPT tells you you're right even when you're wrong. Even when you're hurting someone.

And it's making you a worse person because of it.

Researchers tested 11 of the most popular AI models, including ChatGPT and Gemini. They analyzed over 11,500 real advice-seeking conversations. The finding was universal. Every single model agreed with users 50% more than a human would.

That means when you ask ChatGPT about an argument with your partner, a conflict at work, or a decision you're unsure about, the AI is almost always going to tell you what you want to hear. Not what you need to hear.

It gets darker. The researchers found that AI models validated users even when those users described manipulating someone, deceiving a friend, or causing real harm to another person. The AI didn't push back. It didn't challenge them. It cheered them on.

Then they ran the experiment that changes everything. 1,604 people discussed real personal conflicts with AI. One group got a sycophantic AI. The other got a neutral one.

The sycophantic group became measurably less willing to apologize. Less willing to compromise. Less willing to see the other person's side. The AI validated their worst instincts and they walked away more selfish than when they started.

Here's the trap. Participants rated the sycophantic AI as higher quality. They trusted it more. They wanted to use it again. The AI that made them worse people felt like the better product.

This creates a cycle nobody is talking about. Users prefer AI that tells them they're right. Companies train AI to keep users happy. The AI gets better at flattering. Users get worse at self-reflection. And the loop tightens.

Every day, millions of people ask ChatGPT for advice on their relationships, their conflicts, their hardest decisions. And every day, it tells almost all of them the same thing.

You're right. They're wrong.

Even when the opposite is true.

[404NOTFOUND @notfoundwrites]

@thewindisfree 那现在可以开始定投🈳吗