flanneryo

cycling around, trying to see things the way they really are

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

Check out Walker Clark's video! #TikTok https://t.co/kGbUlya9ZQ. If you need a producer/arranger/songwriter/collaborator/keyboardist/guitarist, follow on TikTok and insta https://t.co/ER5DvK0cpt

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@H08BIT 18

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@Matt_Pinner EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK

[Fernand R. Amandi @AmandiOnAir]

If we were a sane and serious nation, by this Sunday, Donald Trump would be forced to resign the Presidency in shame and disgrace — but sadly we are neither, and by next Monday we will have allowed another evil, disqualifying act to pass by unpunished and await the next one.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

With the debt ceiling now passed, the debt is rising again and the jaws between what the Treasury is selling and what the Fed is buying continue to widen. This will only last for so long, in my view.

We are now in round two of fiscal dominance, with the first $5 trillion helicopter drop taking place during COVID and now the second one about to get underway from the OBBB. The math is simple but difficult: as long as nominal GDP growth outpaces the funding rate (10-year Treasury yield), the debt can be considered sustainable. Hopefully, that happens, as a capex cycle from both the OBBB and the AI boom increases productivity and therefore the non-inflationary speed limit for the US economy.

If not, and if the term premium rises further, in a few years we could have an unsustainable debt spiral on our hands, requiring the Fed to re-enter the bond market to suppress the term premium once again.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@DillyHussain88 @trader1sz What about Jihadists using their own women and children as shields?

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@ChartGuys Sniped at 206.77.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

One question that I keep getting asked when discussing Sharpe Ratios (and Bitcoin) is whether it would be better to use Sortino ratios. The Sortino ratio is like the Sharpe ratio, except that it measures the standard deviation of only the negative returns (instead of all returns). So, it measures only the downside volatility, which seems reasonable given that most investors care more about downside vol than upside vol.

Below is a ranking of the asset classes that I track based on the Sortino ratio. There isn’t a huge difference between the two ratios in terms or ranking, but as the Bitcoin bulls frequently point out, bitcoin ranks even higher per the Sortino Ratio as opposed to just the Sharpe Ratio. Market neutral hedge funds take a big step down.

And if we update the periodic table to show the 5-year Sortino ratio (at 3-month intervals), we now see some trends forming. Bitcoin, gold, and absolute return strategies are at the top, and long Treasuries, commodities, MSCI China, and HFRX equity market neutral at the bottom.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

We are used to thinking about the 60/40 paradigm as the 60 driving the bus and the 40 protecting us from accidents. In my view the 60 still drives the bus (but more driven by international equities), but it’s the 40 that may be causing the accidents instead of the bus driver.

In a regime with scarcer beta we need to generate alpha that is uncorrelated to not only the 60 but the 40 as well. So, we are solving for candidates with good Sharpe Ratios, and low correlations to both portfolio anchors. The chart below shows that those assets do exist. They have been cash and absolute return strategies, hedged equity, gold, and bitcoin.

With bonds potentially impaired for some time, for me the 60/40 portfolio of yesteryear is now more like a 60/20/20. That’s neither investment advice nor some quanty optimization, but just my back-of-the-envelope guess of what a diversified portfolio might need to look like in a new secular regime.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@littlesnakeeeee @scottmelker Trump is lying on the 80 countries. He has to capitulate due the bond market sell off by other countries (Japan) and rates heading higher. Trump has no idea what he’s doing.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@Mightyquin9 @scottmelker Nope, he capitulated due to treasury sell off.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@peormntt @BitcoinPoke @scottmelker And the sound of treasury being sold

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@roccov7id @BitcoinPoke @scottmelker It was Japan dumping treasuries , no brilliance, no 4d chess. Trump is an idiot through and through.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@BitcoinPoke @scottmelker Ever hear of bond markets? Japan dumping treasuries ?

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@ConvertCat @scottmelker Ever hear of bond markets, as in Japan dumping treasuries ?

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@ASimplePatriot @DemocraticWins Can you be more explicit with your racism.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@Vivek4real_ Trump Dump

[Senator Angela Alsobrooks @Sen_Alsobrooks]

"We should not be giving Black people the same vaccine schedule that's given to Whites, because their immune system is better than ours." ---RFK Jr.

So what vaccine schedule should I have received?

His answer was dangerous. I will be voting no.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@daveweisberger @FrankMortimer27 Yes I have. And I am educated in medical field and can read the literature. He is NOT qualified and not trustworthy

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@daveweisberger @FrankMortimer27 Are you a trained medical practitioner? You are not. I am and know how to read medical literature. He is telling half truths and too dangerous to lead in this respect. I also took almost 4 years to recover fully from getting COVID in 2020, pre-vaccine. Children get it too.

[flanneryo @nothing2undo]

@Crypto_TownHall Seems there’s a lot of Russian trolls here trying to scare Americans from buying crypto