MacroCowboy

#Bitcoin, macroeconomics, accounting, #GoPokes. Wealth and freedom are illusions without sound money, free markets and property rights.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

If a 2008 event happened again, Bitcoin would be the asset of choice. Medium and large financial institutions would have killed to have something like Bitcoin in 2008 when there was sheer panic for the big boys.

Individuals like you and I might think we can just hide out in cash or hold some physical gold while the market tanks, but that’s not an option for anyone with a sizable about of money.

The big word during 2008 was “counterparty risk”. The big banks thought they were smart holding credit default swaps with AIG, but the losses were so big that AIG couldn’t pay out. There was no where to store billions of dollars where you didn’t have some kind of counterparty risk.

Holding billions of cash at another bank is simply a giant liability for that other bank. What about holding government bonds? Ok, the government won’t default, but the money will be repaid in heavily debased dollars that will have lost a substantial amount of purchasing power. Stocks? These will tank and some companies will go bankrupt and not make it.

Ok, ok, what about gold and silver? Well, that’s a great option for an individual that has a few million dollars to shield. You can keep that in your home vault. But what if you have billions to shield? Financial institutions of all sizes would have to take on enormous counterparty risk going to gold because they’d have to buy the ETF or some paper gold derivative. Even if they held physical, it’s a massive undertaking moving, handling, storing, securing, and assaying the value of that much metal. Governments can easily seize it or block it as it moves around the globe physically.

Before something like Bitcoin, I’d agree that gold is the best bet and the counterparty risks with physical gold are the least bad option. But with Bitcoin, you have zero counterparty risk when the keys are held in cold storage. It costs just a few dollars of fees to move billions of dollars of Bitcoin. You achieve final settlement in just one hour. You know exactly how much Bitcoin is out there because the blockchain is open in full view. The blockchain is open source and decentralized. You do not need anyone’s permission to send or receive Bitcoin. Transactions are immutable and censorship resistant.

Gold is like an analog Bitcoin. Gold is just like Bitcoin except it’s much less portable, much harder to authenticate, less scarce, less divisible, more expensive to secure, and more vulnerable to physical seizure.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@BitPaine “OG shitcoiners” 😂

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@DeanHasArrived @CorySwan But, if touching the 250 day MA for a bottom is “common knowledge” now, don’t you think people will front run this and buy now ahead of others trying to buy the bottom?

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@CorySwan Cycle bottoms?

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

But there’s no marketing department, corporate c-suite or founder. These are all features, not bugs.

Right now, the markets manically jumping from narrative to narrative in fiat fuckery land thinking in terms of dollars, which’s value is going down the toilet.

At some point, people will realize that the value of stocks and homes haven’t been going up, the value of the dollar is going down and it’s all fucked.

Once this point of the crack-up boom occurs, people will figure out Bitcoin pretty fucking quick.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@dgt10011 @ColeMacro But why was Bitcoin the only thing selling off thus far? Do you think Iran may be dumping to plug the hole left by the blockade keeping most of their oil from being sold? Would explain why it’s only been Bitcoin.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

AI is getting commoditized. They are charging for use via “tokens”. Where this is going is the tokens will be BTC. AI prefers a currency that’s global, permissionless, censorship resistant, and scarce. In addition, AI data centers can be used to mine Bitcoin and vice versa. It’s all symbiotic.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@scottmelker If this isn’t the bottom, then it’s not too far off.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

Remember

There is no founder in Bitcoin to “take a break.”

That’s why Bitcoin is different.

In my opinion, Satoshi was “taken out for a permanent break” after Gavin Andresen met with the CIA.

I discuss why I hold that view at the end of this podcast:

https://t.co/OpTCrkYvN4

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

Buying around here will be like buying in late 2022. It just hit the 200 day MA, which is generally the bottom. It’s sitting at the bottom of the Power Law channel too.

Only pause I have is the calendar. I think most expect the bottom around October. BUT, if that’s what most expect, then it’ll get front run. Perhaps now is the bottom and you won’t get this chance if you wait until October. Definitely can’t go wrong buying the 200 day MA bottom.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@DavidDTawil We just touched the 200 day MA, which usually calls the bottom. We’re at the bottom of the Power Law channel too. Buying around here will be like buying in late 2022. Only pause is the calendar. Most expect BTC to bottom in October.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@DavidDTawil @WorldStrategist with all due respect, fuck China on Tiananmen Day. They deny it ever happened. How can they be trusted?

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@DavidDTawil Furthermore, this ties in really well with AI data centers where compute can be used for AI or Bitcoin mining. It’s all symbiotic. AI will want a completely decentralized, scarce, permissionless, and censorship resistant currency, which is Bitcoin.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@DavidDTawil Where this is going is all the AI models will accept Bitcoin as the “token” to do work.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@TheAardvark01 @zerohedge No, because it seems to be only happening to Bitcoin. I think it’s Iran liquidating their stack in order to buy weapons and food. Blockade has cutoff much of their oil revenue. This explains why only Bitcoin is affected.

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

Perp market= ~$60B
Meanwhile, his exchange is the biggest seller of Treasury futures for the UST cash-futures basis trade with leverage up to 100x

That basis trade, responsible for buying 37% of all US debt since 2022, stands at ~1.8 trillion

With 100x leverage, that's $180 TRILLION of notional exposure

The Cayman Islands, home to the hedge funds running this basis trade, is now the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. From 2022-2024, the Cayman Islands (i.e. 100x levered hedge funds in the basis trade) bought more US debt than almost every other foreign investor... combined.

They're now the largest foreign holder of US debt. Bigger than Japan. Bigger than China. In fact, bigger than both of them combined.

And it's all because of the basis, which is embedded in Duffy's own products. When the basis blows out, as it's *known to do*, it causes severe dysfunction in the most important market in the world: the US Treasury market

But sure, the $60B perp market is the one to worry about...
https://t.co/9HOqaI6n0M

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@Puncher522 @grok when was this, what airline was it and what were they arguing about?

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@JoshMandell6 @scottmelker Yep, the ETF entrance to pump dominance can also work in reverse.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@GlennOnrampBTC @mattkratter https://t.co/4txFbJrGHK

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

Seeing a lot of panic about $STRC trading around $94.

A reminder: preferred stocks trading below par is completely normal. Many preferreds spend long periods below their $25 or $100 liquidation preference.

STRC’s $100 par value is not a price floor. It’s the stated value used for liquidation preference and certain redemption provisions.

What’s unique about STRC is that its dividend rate is adjusted monthly with the stated goal of encouraging the stock to trade near its $100 par value. That mechanism can influence demand, but it does not guarantee the stock will always trade at par.

A 5% discount to par is not evidence that something is broken. It’s evidence that investors are demanding a higher yield, pricing risk, or reacting to market conditions – exactly what preferred stocks do.

This is a preferred stock trading like a preferred stock.

[MacroCowboy @BitcoinPoke]

@RudyHavenstein @infraa_ It’s still really funny