Nuclear Badger

Nuclear Engineer, Badger (and Packer and Bucks and Brewer and since Spring 2019 kt wiz) Fan

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@ZacBellman_WNY @WolverinesPride Girls high jump now the oldest?

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@DavidEpstein potentially of interest

[Saloni @salonium]

Many public discussions center around trends and statistics that are not real at all.

For over a decade, there was widespread public discourse about the causes of high and rising maternal mortality in the US.

But, as I've written about before , CDC analyses showed that the apparent rise from 2003 to 2017 was due to a change in measurement https://t.co/pBBcRoDoXQ , when a pregnancy checkbox was added to death certificates, which flowed directly into maternal mortality counts in most cases. Rather than mortality rising, the rate had been stable. Many deaths had been previously missed, and many other countries were undercounting maternal deaths.

This isn't an isolated case.

- People often cite the IHME's estimate of childhood height having fallen in the UK over the past decade. Looking at the data sources, it missed one of the key sources of data on height - a national dataset measuring the height and weight of almost all schoolchildren in the UK, which showed no decline (that data wasn't publicly available until an FOIA request) - and instead the IHME estimates were likely extrapolated based on a global model and smaller, less reliable surveys. https://t.co/dOxnt7ewPD
- I often hear claims about disruptive science having declined over time based on a highly influential paper in Nature. https://t.co/pTAlXnvanB But the key results were affected by a coding bug, which would have showed a decline simply due to this artefact https://t.co/0EXvL55Zer
- The idea that interstate migration in the US has collapsed has led to lots of concern about dynamism and unemployment. But recently, it's been shown that much of the apparent decline was a statistical artefact of how the survey filled in missing responses, causing it to systematically overcount non-movers. Correcting this shows only a very slight decline over time https://t.co/CeIp2kchWL
- The dramatic rise in autism diagnoses, which has spurred lots of commentary about pesticide use and vaccines, actually reflects changes in how autism was defined. In the 1960s, autism described severely disabled, mostly nonverbal children: if a child was verbal or succeeding at school, they were excluded from the diagnosis by definition. The criteria then widened across successive editions of the DSM. Alongside it, it became much easier to get assessed, from requiring a specialist with months-long waiting lists to something that could be done in a few appointments. https://t.co/0L1Y4tKCUd

--

I think this is a persistent problem of people undervaluing data quality and measurement. It may sound dull or academic to care about these issues, but numbers and statistics are a big part of public discussions. They can be the premise of debates that can go on for years and sometimes even decades, and mislead people about social and policy interventions to fix them.

So before spending time arguing about the causes and consequences of a trend or statistic and what should be done about it, it's worth digging into the data to see if it supports the premise at all.

I suspect there are many other discussions affected by this too. Are there others I've missed?

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

I ❤️ insurance runs

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

nice start Brewers

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@StephenCRosene

[SMBC Comics @SMBCComics]

A note of appreciation to the 4 of you who started laughing on the first panel.

COMIC ◆ https://t.co/hTDIRSnasB
PATREON ◆ https://t.co/DYYMqy2KN8
STORE ◆ https://t.co/aRRj5Lx651

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@inpredict thanks for sharing

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

and look at that...

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

bases loaded - must be time for an Ortiz at bat...

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@DavidEpstein cogent advice...

[Deva Hazarika @devahaz]

The most underrated way to make new friends at any age is to just do the same stuff at the same times at the same places on a regular basis

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@JakeKoco @CyrtHogg And does that mean Les Miz likes Culver’s?

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@SnellSZN @DanRShafer Looks like David Tennant in a Bucks uniform

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@DavidEpstein local news just had an interview with Gloria Mark about monotasking...

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@adrienneshih @DavidEpstein loved the Innumerancy reference

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@jsonline_sports wow - how did Kenny Harrison end up so low?

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@DavidEpstein the constraint that nothing matters...

[SMBC Comics @SMBCComics]

Having a purpose was your first mistake. Wanting it to have meaning was a mental health calamity.

COMIC ◆ https://t.co/UgWNOESLYY
PATREON ◆ https://t.co/DYYMqy2KN8
STORE ◆ https://t.co/aRRj5Lx651

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

#WABfortheWin

[Will Warren @statsbywill]

My offseason labor of love for @basket_review: if Wins Above Bubble existed for the entirety of the 68-team era, would the Tournament be better? Two major takeaways: WAB *really* helped mid-majors, and it would make most 2011-2024 (pre-WAB) fields better. https://t.co/nsMmfcKGzb

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@ChrisChavez @preet_athletics anything that leads to Chris doing math live during podcasts to figure out if people are in on rankings is a great system...

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@SethBurn Peak-a-Boo Veach!

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

@totally_t_bomb 981 today for me

[Nuclear Badger @nuclearbdgr]

My apologies, fellow Brew Crew fans...I turned the game on just before the Top of the Fourth...I'm sorry.