you're telling me anthropic & google are paying spacex ~$26b a year for compute?!!
this is more than half the run rate of openai & anthropic just from compute deals & that doesn't even factor in the rocket launches at all.
elon accidentally ended up owning a significant portion of three of the scarcest assets in ai.. power, chips, & physical deployment capability. the best lesson here is that if you’re selling picks & shovels during a gold rush, you don’t necessarily need to find the gold. you just need everyone else to keep digging. & also non software elon is pretty much unstoppable, like prime michael jordan type thing.
@patrickc Part of why dowtown Detroit feels depopulated vs other U.S. cities is it’s unusually easy to get in and out. You can get almost anywhere in the metro from downtown in ~30 min.
The freeway network was built in the 1950s-70s for a city of 1.85M people. Today Detroit is ~630k.
You can vibe-code software, but you can’t vibecode a relationship.
Affirm CEO @mlevchin explains that while AI makes software cheaper and faster to build, creating real, cash-flow-producing businesses still depends on trust, partners, and scale that can’t be automated:
"AI changes everything - but it doesn't change that much."
“We make cash-flow-producing assets known as Affirm loans. There are about 40 million of them made every quarter, and growing quickly. It’s difficult to roll out of bed and say, ‘let’s vibecode that,’ because, while you can vibecode some of the code, getting to our scale requires convincing an enormous number of partners to process tens of billions of dollars of loans."
"Those relationships are not vibecoded.”
@WillManidis at the top of his game. What’s baffling to me about this discussion is that we somehow assume that this end game is worth having, is the solution to the ontological problem. The world’s greatest founder tweets about how success and wealth don’t bring happiness. But somehow everyone just nods at this, then wants to get back to this business of the end game, the Tower of Babel. To get theirs. There’s nothing inherently wrong with building this tower - the people railing against progress don’t really have a compelling alternative to offer - but there’s a reason every religion in the world eschews the mindless pursuit of worldly riches and glory. There are two great tragedies in a human life - not getting what you want, and getting what you want. And that’s just the point of it. In the end, there is only the mid game. The greatest people I’ve met seem to deeply understand this.
imagine if google hadn’t flinched & kept boston dynamics which they had bought for cheap in 2013, you’d basically have:
- perception layer (search, maps, vision)
- cognition layer (deepmind)
- embodiment layer (bd robots & waymo)
- distribution (android, chrome, cloud)
- capital + patience
google bought boston dynamics then immediately got spooked by their own employees. humanoid robots + military history + viral videos = instant evil robot discourse. google mid 2010s was peak moral theater.
For the first time in history, over 1 in 3 startups were started solo this year.
Introducing The State of Solo Founding: exclusive data from Carta + commentary from top founders and investors.
https://t.co/QG2seoE9LQ
Solo founders seem odd today.
Soon they'll be the default.