Mark O'Brien

Rates and Currency Trader

[🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 @Jkylebass]

Jeff, you know I love you as a person and a friend, but your motivated reasoning in this article falls flat with me and with America 🇺🇸.

Here is my response to your piece:

The Iran War Was Not a Defeat — It Was a Reckoning

Your piece on Trump’s “defeat” in Iran is a masterclass in motivated reasoning dressed up as geopolitical analysis. Let’s deal in facts.

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against the Iranian regime, targeting its nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership…following a determination that diplomacy had been exhausted and a nuclear-armed Iran posed an unacceptable threat to the world. What followed was not a defeat. It was the systematic dismantling of the most destabilizing terror regime in the Middle East.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei…Iran’s iron-fisted ruler since 1989, the architect of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis…was killed in strikes on Tehran. Senior advisers and military leadership were eliminated alongside him. The man who spent four decades exporting terrorism across the region is gone. You somehow forgot to lead with that.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed severe damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities that will take over a decade to rebuild. A U.S. naval blockade choked off Iran’s oil exports. Ambassador Mike Waltz confirmed Iran’s currency was in free fall and its foreign reserves were near zero. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the collapse of the Iranian currency the strategy’s “grand culmination.” This is what economic obliteration looks like.

The U.S. Navy sank over thirty Iranian ships. Iran’s capacity to mine or close the Strait of Hormuz…the threat that has hung over the global economy for decades…has been shattered.

Your piece wrings its hands over the MOU’s imperfections. But consider what the agreement actually reflects: a theocratic regime that once strutted across the Middle East through its terror proxies now sitting at a table in Versailles, reaffirming it will not pursue nuclear weapons, agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz, and accepting a 60-day framework for further nuclear talks…after its navy was sunk, its Supreme Leader killed, its air defenses shredded, and its economy reduced to rubble. That’s not capitulation by America. That’s the posture of a beaten adversary buying time. While I don’t believe the IRGC will ever give up their highly-enriched uranium, this has been a decisive victory to date.

Now…about proportionality and concern for human life. You cluck solemnly over 3,375 Iranian casualties across the entire conflict. Chicago recorded 416 murders in 2025 alone with nearly 2,800 people shot in a single year in a single American city. A typical violent summer weekend in Democrat-run Chicago produces more American bloodshed than the entire Iran war cost in U.S. lives. Where is the Time cover story on that? Where are the Sonnenfeld op-eds demanding accountability from the Democrat officials who have presided over that carnage for decades?

You invoke Roy Cohn and the Marx Brothers to paint Trump as a con man declaring false victories. But the real sleight of hand is yours…treating the elimination of the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, the destruction of its nuclear timetable, and the cratering of its economy as a loss, because the terms of surrender weren’t worded to your satisfaction.

The Iran war has removed a knife that had been held to the throat of the Middle East for forty years. That’s not nothing. That’s the whole thing.

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@ClareONeilMP How humiliating for Hastie, getting praise from this left wing cretin. Should hasten his demise nicely one hopes!

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@AlboMP @Keir_Starmer You mean Comrade Starmer? Commos stick together.

[Dr Aseem Malhotra @DrAseemMalhotra]

This should be front page news all over the world

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

Such an idiotic take. You really think the Fed's dot points provide the market "certainty?" They have proven to be as useless as the average economist. The dot points are NOT new information, just a bunch of opinions. The market is reacting to Warsh: “The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous, and that’s I think an important message we’ve missed for five years, and we’re going to fix that.”
“The ‘two’ is the left of the decimal point. For now, ‘zero’ is to the right. I see no reason until we have reestablished our commitment and ability to deliver on the 2% inflation objective to revisit that.” That's a hiking cycle announced.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Both men said “I can’t breathe”, but only one man’s death was covered relentlessly by the media.

The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the legacy mainstream media is incredibly, hatefully racist against Whites.

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@AlboMP 45. Throwing everything. Seriously 45 houses. You pathetic joke of a man, you have lost the country, apart from the rusted on clowns everyone loathes you and sees what you are. You are finished.

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

The Aussie Trump haters saying "Smart money fleeing the US" should consider this. Since Trumps inauguration S&P up 26Pct. Over that same time the ASX has eked out less than 3%. Pitiful. And lets not talk bond yields. US booming, Aust is fucked.

[christopher joye @cjoye]

The single biggest winner from the budget: the tax-free owner-occupied home, which is where people will put their money. After the budget doubles the capital gains tax on productive businesses/assets from circa 23.5% to 46-47%, investors will understandably pull money from businesses, shares, commercial property and rental housing and plough it into their tax-free owner-occupied home. It's a great way to push up the prices of these houses. On the other hand, cutting negative gearing while also doubling CGT makes investing in rental properties extremely unattractive. It hammers the capital gain upside on any asset: shares, commercial property, the small or medium sized business you built, venture capital and private equity. It will give Australia the most unattractive capital gains tax in the WORLD (see table below)! So the government's policies will (1) push up owner-occupied house prices, (2) push up rents, and (3) reduce the capital available for investing in any small, medium or large sized business that is driving employment, innovation, growth and productivity/prosperity. Investors will go to other countries where they pay half the capital gains tax, or less. Since these pollies have never worked a day of their lives in the private sector, it is no surprise that when they decide to completely and unilaterally rewrite the entire tax system for all investors and businesses -- after promising before the last election more than 50 times NOT to change the capital gains tax and negative gearing rules -- that they would blow the entire Aussie economy up... Your best bet will be to buy a house, live in it, and hope they keep dropping 500,000 new people into the country every year to pump-up prices...

[Craig Kelly:🇦🇺Foundation for Economic Education @craigkellyAFEE]

It’s time for some truth-telling.

Anthony Albanese has been an unmitigated, catastrophic failure — the worst Prime Minister Australia has ever endured.

Four years ago he promised: “Life will be cheaper under me.”

That wasn’t just a promise — it was a boast that set the clear goalposts by which he now must now be judged.

And the verdict is in: total humiliation.

Far from making life cheaper, Albanese has delivered the highest inflation rate in the developed world — beaten only by sanction-hit Russia as it wages its brutal war in Ukraine.

Australians are being absolutely hammered at the checkout, in their rent, their mortgages, and their power bills, while this Prime Minister smirks as he lies through his teeth every-time he opens his mouth.

By any objective measure, Albanese hasn’t just failed — he has failed spectacularly, hopelessly, and destructively.

Because when you obsessively follow the woke agenda, virtue-signal your way through office, chase the deranged Net Zero fantasy, and flood the country with unprecedented levels of migration not for the national interest but as a cynical vote-importing racket for Labor — economic carnage is the inevitable result.

Australians are now paying the brutal price for Albanese’s failure: the highest inflation in the developed world outside Russia.

Make no mistake — Anthony Albanese is a proven disaster.

Weak, out-of-touch, and utterly incompetent.

He is, without question, our worst Prime Minister in history.

[Adam Creighton @Adam_Creighton]

After almost four years of the Albanese government, it’s time to declare it worse than Gough Whitlam’s.
https://t.co/dWi9FuFDcZ

[Chris Stephens @ChrisStephensMD]

My man

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@SparkyRaffD @FirstSquawk "You're" replacing fuses while the 3yo runs the free world. Tim Cook groveling to him an added bonus.

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@ClareONeilMP So that will house less than 4% of your obscene immigration intake. Pathetic.

[Craig Kelly:🇦🇺Foundation for Economic Education @craigkellyAFEE]

It’s pretty simple. The more life experience a person has had, the more likely they understand what an absolute disaster the Albanese regime is.

[Mark O'Brien @obrim2]

@Lisa9Sophia What a complete joke this country has become.

[Cernovich @Cernovich]

The war on Whites.

[Dr. Dina McMillan 🇺🇸 @drdina1]

I'm just back in the USA from living for years in Australia. The complete erosion of civil rights, leadership that opened the borders to hostile foreigners, kowtowing to China, and allowing foreigners to buy up the real estate while Australians live in tents. The Left has conquered most states and drives policies that are make Australia weak and vulnerable.
A major terrorist attack on iconic Bondi Beach by Muslim terrorists. The government's reaction? Make speech against Muslims and other foreign invaders illegal. Give more land title rights to Aboriginals so they can on-sell to China. Continue forcing policies and speech to make white Australians - whose ancestors turned Australia into a first-world country - feel guilty so they'll allow themselves to be manipulated and robbed.
Australian interests are not being served at all. And the majority of Australians just shrug.
Since 2022, I was actively and heavily discriminated against in business and even in conversations with random strangers. Not because I'm black - because I'm an American.
It was time to come home.
I still love Australia - and the UK - another country where I've lived. But unless Australia gets behind an Aussie version of Rupert Lowe, I suggest you all learn Mandarin and Arabic.
We Americans are no longer supporting people who treat us with disrespect. You're on your own.
@goodfoodgal @RitaPanahi

[Will Chamberlain @willchamberlain]

Imagine being the IRGC

You get completely owned for five straight weeks, and then you FINALLY shoot down one plane, and then the US Military just sends in Delta Force, rescues both pilots, and kills a few hundred more of your men because they can

[Tom Kratman @TKratman]

From Martin Iles, reposted:

Having lived in the USA for nearly two years, I've realised something.

The USA and the remainder of the Western world are no longer aligned.

We all laugh and mock when the Americans say, "Freedom!" because we truly think we're as free as they are.

Wrong. We're not. Not even close. The laws, the mindset, and the behaviour, is totally different in this regard.

Most of all, the governments are totally different. The USA's convictions around core freedoms are on a scale we do not share.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump wins the popular vote, the electoral college, the House, and the Senate... a man who, in every other Western country, is held in open derision, if not contempt.

For these and other reasons, we are not the same.

Yet the West, including Australia, fully expect to rely on the USA for our very survival.

If the world turns bad (which will happen - only a question of time), then the whole West, without America, is toast.

So, you may ask - if we're not very aligned ideologically, then it must be that we bring something to the party militarily?

Well, no... actually... we don't matter that much militarily.

The USA has about 470 ships in its navy, including 11 aircraft carriers, 69 submarines, 75 destroyers... plus 110 new ships in the pipeline.

Australia has about 30, including 3 destroyers, 7 frigates and 7 outdated submarines. The UK does a little better, with about 60.

Meanwhile, the US has over 14,000 military aircraft. A staggering number.

Australia has 252 military aircraft. The UK has 556.

The US army has just shy of 1,000,000 uniformed personnel in its military. Australia has about 45,000.
The USA spends 3.4% ($968 billion) of its GDP on defence. Australia spends 2% ($36.4 billion). The US spends as much as the next 15 largest military-spending countries (including China) combined.

The USA has a fighting culture. The men shoot things (a lot) and hunt things, the veterans get favoured in everything from parking spots to boarding planes. A uniformed young man is thanked in the street a dozen times a day.

"Oh, the Americans and their guns!" we say, in our smug way. Yes, they have a warrior culture. We do not. We don't have to, because we're a leech on theirs.

How many young British men are willing to fight for their country? Now ask the same regarding young American men. The difference is about as wide as it could be.

Militarily, we don't offer squat.

Meanwhile, look at the way Australia works against America's interests by loving on China. China made us rich and we stay close. This is a Marxist regime with expansionist aims.

Again, you have to spend time in the USA to realise just how vast a gulf there is between us on China.

Europe, too. They let China have their way everywhere from Germany to Greenland, all the while importing Islam and sending their own people to court for saying hurty words.

Somehow, we have landed the deal of a lifetime with the USA that says, "when the baddies come, you'll save us ok?" Because we can't save ourselves.

And we live in peace. But we keep gnawing away at freedoms, keep enabling China, and get flabby and disinterested about our military because Uncle Sam's got it.

And, let's be honest, Americans are widely looked down on. To add insult to injury, we don't think that highly of our protectors.

So, the USA is finally saying "enough." I am here, I can tell you what the vibe is, and that's it. Trump is doing what people want in this regard. They're over it.

And we come across all shocked and hard done by. We behave like people with no self-insight at all.

Yes, the global alliance system is all over the place now. From America's perspective, it's about time.

And I must say, though I be a proud Australian, I am forced to agree. Something has to change.