DT

chart observer / on-chain freak
“Being unobservable is your most valuable personal asset.” ₿

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official:

Crypto has now erased more than HALF of its value in just 8 months.

On October 6th, 2025, the total market cap of crypto hit a record $4.3 trillion.

Today, 261 days later, crypto is worth just $2.0 trillion, marking a -54% decline in value.

This means crypto markets have erased an average of -$8.8 billion PER DAY for 261 days straight.

Crypto is in desperate need of a new narrative.

[NIC NEVIM @Nicnevim11]

Situace v Japonsku může být jeden ze spouštěčů letní korekce, podobně jako v sprnu 2024, kdy Bank of Japan zvedla sazby a americké akcie zažily prudký výplach v rámci likvidací japonských carry trades.

Akciové trhy jsou teď rekordně zapákované a pořád je dost populární půjčovat si levný japonský jen (JPY) a za ten pak nakupovat americká aktiva s vyšším výnosem. Je to levná páka, ale trochu gamble. Všichni sázejí, že JPY bude dál padat. Ale když vystřelí, tak to může spustit kaskádové likvidace.

Japonsko se marně snaží bojovat se slabým Jenem. Nemůže moc zvedat sazby, kvůli extrémnímu zadlužení (nemohou si dovolit zdražovat obsluhu dluhu), ale když sazby výrazně nezvednou, bude slabý JPY dál tlačit inflaci směrem nahoru. Zvlášť teď, když se budou zvedat sazby v USA.

Japonsko je v dluhové pasti ještě o dost hlouběji než USA. Nemá žádné dobré řešení, situace se setrvale zhoršuje a smyčka se utahuje. Americký ministr financí Bessent už kvůli tomu jedná s japonským protějškem. Je to problém Japonska, ale snadno se může rozšířit do zbytku světa. Japonsko fungovalo dekády jako pumpa levné likvidity. Hodně z těch peněz šlo do amerických dluhopisů, které jsou teď taky pod velkým tlakem.

Objem carry trades narostl do enormních rozměrů. Řekl bych že trh se teď trochu obává, že BOJ udělá něco radikálního, co by mohlo zase všechny vypláchnout.

[DT @officialradiuum]

@MitaoCatCS Oopsieee

[DT @officialradiuum]

We Back Season

[Tree News @TreeNewsFeed]

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.25-4.5%

[DT @officialradiuum]

@UW_Phoenix Umírající medvěd před smrtí vždycky nejvíc bručí...

[EliZ @eliz883]

I know it's boring, but a trader must also know how to get bored and use his free time to do something else or simply study and learn!

in the last few days I have always shown you patience and as you can see it was the best decision! dictated by experience I have on charts👈🏻 it comes into play only on confirmations as we have already said and written previously! $BTC

[EliZ @eliz883]

here too nothing complicated on the macro .... these are the key levels where you can understand how to move! as regards scalps on low tmf another story! we operate them daily with triggers

$BTC

[EliZ @eliz883]

my graphs try to teach you to think objectively and simply

the key resistance hit today...now waiting for the weekly chisira is important $BTC 🤝

[Santiment Intelligence @SantimentData]

💸 As traders brace for the upcoming FOMC decision, a major positive that crypto won't see a serious drop is the fact that Bitcoin ETF inflow money has been sky-high since mid-April. Since April 16th, there has been $5.13B moved into collective BTC ETF's, pumping markets.

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

Today we'll have another FOMC.

The Fed is expected to keep rates the same.

The market will be eager to watch for any dovish or hawkish changes in their tone which has been pretty mixed recently.

[Pierre @pierre_crypt0]

Gm

Some fairly obvious things
- FOMC day, often comes with several wave of volatility, careful Powell speech moves
- 94.5-96.0k must flip
- Local highs (~97k) must break
- Mid range ~99k next upside target if done
- D1 trend retests (91/94, pretty wide still yeah) otherwise

[exitpump @exitpumpBTC]

$BTC Spot orderbooks have decent bids below, but cb premium is negative, no saylor and etf buyers.

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

BlackRock(iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) has bought 41,452 $BTC($3.92B) over the past 2 weeks, bringing its total holdings to 614,639 $BTC ($58.07B).
https://t.co/kqNUqHAL3P

[exitpump @exitpumpBTC]

$BTC Seeing some sell pressure from spot markets today (CVD is trending down), spot books are bearish too, mostly perps are holding price up.

[glassnode @glassnode]

#Bitcoin is testing key resistance at $93K–$95K, breaking its downtrend and forming a higher high. On-chain and technical signals show a market at a turning point. Can the rally hold? Read the full analysis in the latest Week On-Chain: https://t.co/WHs4ymw3CL

[Skew Δ @52kskew]

Yesterday the market was pricing 57% probability of 25bps cut for June 18th FOMC

Today it's 63%

Push coming to shove in terms of economic data & rate cuts

Fed will still be concerned about price pressures but more so about weakness within the economy, especially if policy isn't corrected in time

[Skew Δ @52kskew]

$BTC
Some US morning chaos already

Price & sellers raided $93K bid liquidity

Briefly we have seen spot buying pick up off $93K from both binance & coinbase
- taker bid (CVDs up with price)

Longs were stopped out & new longs came in during the bounce off $93K

For a recovery to take place we would need to see strong passive demand for BTC
- price grinding higher

also market funding is negative now due to
- debasement in long positioning after this sell off
- high short positioning in the market

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Currently, the market is in the third phase of liquidity expansion. The index incorporates all key on-chain network metrics as well as exchange data. Because every component is normalized, it isn’t skewed by BTC/USD exchange‐rate fluctuations. Monthly readings are climbing now and have nearly caught up with the quarterly figures.

Assuming no external “Black Swan” events:

Test $100K
Retest ATH
New ATH

[Will @WClemente]

Bitcoin's correlation to gold has clearly grown stronger relative to its correlation to equities over the last few weeks