Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz

Spanish-born Briton. Co-Founder & CTO at Nexar. Ex-Yahoo Sr Fellow. Music composer. Triathlete. Programming language junkie.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Physics / science crime mystery drama is a genre I did not know existed. https://t.co/w9w3UhJJAR

[Michael Eisenberg @mikeeisenberg]

Dear teenagers and parents of teenagers,

Your brain compounds. Do not waste it on TikTok. Compound your knowledge and agency EARLY by learning with AI, by reading by consuming professional content on Youtube.

Please share this message!

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

auth.md is a coordination layer over OIDC/WIF-like primitives, but it does not remove adoption cost, e.g. Linear still has to implement federation, etc. If they’re doing that anyway, a clean OIDC/WIF profile could solve the core problem just as well.

[Michael Grinich @grinich]

Today WorkOS is launching auth.md

An open protocol for agents to register for services on the web.

We're partnering with @Cloudflare and @Firecrawl as some of the first providers.

Why did we build this? And why now? 🧵

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Finally, welcome to the XXI Century.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

hey @Cambridge_Uni - are we not supposed to be the leading technology institution? It's embarrassing to be using Victorian-era technology in 2026 to secure the exams. Please use the Blockchain and stop this international A-Level clown-show.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Impact of EU's self-regulatory pressure: not enough energy, no enough tech, not enough young population, not enough integrated immigrants and too many non-integrated immigrants. And now, becoming irrelevant in the only race going on that will define the future of humanity: AI.

[m_ric @AymericRoucher]

You don't understand the current AI race if you don't think about it in terms of compute - and compute clearly distinguishes 3 tiers of companies.

Arthur Mensch, Mistral's CEO, recently had a hearing at the French Assemblée Nationale. He elegantly framed the AI race as a compute issue, where sovereignty would be ~"the ability to get leverage along the AI value chain" from electrons to tokens.

He also provided numbers (in MW) for Mistral's available compute : I was surprised at how low these numbers were compared to the gargantuan numbers touted by US labs.

So I ran the numbers, based on the recent and excellent @EpochAIResearch study, adding in my (not that reliable) AI-powered estimates of Chinese compute (see assumptions in blog post).

And I found out that there are 3 quite separate tiers.

1. US Champions are really far ahead. Anthropic, OpenAI and Google each command multiple gigawatts (OpenAI ~15 GW once you count the Stargate/Azure/Oracle capacity it rents). Ever wondered why their Claude/GPT /Gemini consistently top benchmarks? Now you know. By the way, tick in Meta and xAI and you'll see them entering tier 1 too with their recent buildouts.

2. Chinese giants scale fast. Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, Huawei and the three state telcos are racing from hundreds of MW toward multi-GW, increasingly on domestic Ascend silicon and the national "East Data West Compute" grid. They report "computing power" in EFLOPS rather than MW, so their points here are estimates, could be quite off the mark.

3. The contenders. Europe's Mistral commands ~90 MW today and aims at 1 GW by 2029, an order of magnitude behind the leaders. Interestingly, some of the best Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Moonshot, Zhipu, MiniMax) have no longstanding compute : they are pure-play : they rent or get allocations from government capacity for specific efforts. DeepSeek (~90 MW, the only one of this category that owns its cluster) is the largest.

With all that said, I hope someday someone in Europe wakes up to the absolute necessity of building compute faster than we do today.

If you want to go inspect the graph, I've got the interactive version and full sources in my blog post, link below.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Am I right?

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

I can see how one of the first victims of agentic transformation will be Atlassian ...

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

@adxtyahq given the tiny size of step (1) - this is not an IR system, it's just the query-side of the problem, which in fact is the smallest in a production system

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

@HedgieMarkets third path: host your own open-weight model in the enterprise (either on-prem or cloud)

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

I come from the future. The new company model is well-architected organisations with hundreds of agents, where humans help the agents. Three layers: managers -> agents -> humans.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

hey @Cambridge_Uni - are we not supposed to be the leading technology institution? It's embarrassing to be using Victorian-era technology in 2026 to secure the exams. Please use the Blockchain and stop this international A-Level clown-show.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

It takes 30 seconds to find the flaw in this 1800s Victorian-era printing business. Please upgrade to digital distribution and at least Public Key Infrastructure. Better yet, blockchain.
https://t.co/Uc9RTiBztk

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

It takes 30 seconds to find the flaw in this 1800s Victorian-era printing business. Please upgrade to digital distribution and at least Public Key Infrastructure. Better yet, blockchain.
https://t.co/Uc9RTiBztk

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

9709 52 was leaked last week, so Pakistan got kicked out from 9709 32. And 5 hours ago paper 32 got leaked on reddit ahead of today's exam. This is severely damaging all students on this A-Level exam board. It's their education at stake. Cambridge International should be sued.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

9709 52 was leaked last week, so Pakistan got kicked out from 9709 32. And 5 hours ago paper 32 got leaked on reddit ahead of today's exam. This is severely damaging all students on this A-Level exam board. It's their education at stake. Cambridge International should be sued.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

LMAOO

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

13 years late ... getting chills down the back listening to Ann Wilson, makes me wonder and remember growing up in the 70s/80s. Rock shaped the philosophy of a generation which is now deep in creating a new revolution of agents.

https://t.co/yDmNHvyyZi

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.

Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:

Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."

He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.

Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.

BUT IT DIDN'T

Those promises are now officially broken.

The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.

Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.

Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.

But that's not even the worst part.

Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.

What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.

How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.

Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:

Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?

WRONG

Dig into the actual filing:

The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."

They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.

GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.

Let me put that in perspective:

3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.

All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...

3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.

So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.

The math doesn't work.

They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.

The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:

Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).

They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.

Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.

Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.

And here's what really kills the bull case...

The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:

Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.

That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.

And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.

Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.

Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.

The stock is $387.

So what exactly are you paying for?

You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.

I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.

And I am telling you:

Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.

THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

[Erick @ErickSky]

https://t.co/nzCzpVuH2Y

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Run your own videos through BADAS 2.0 here -> https://t.co/MYDgF2hzFs

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

VLMs predict tokens. World models predict physics in the latent space. Today we are releasing BADAS 2.0, a V-JEPA2 model that generalises to drones, forklifts, game footage, X-wing fighters, dinosaurs, ... 99.4% AP & 4.6% FPR: 22M params beats COSMOS at 2B!

Link in comments.

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

That’s why I could not get hold of RTX 6000 PRO all weekend

[@jason @Jason]

I’m trying to get some work done — so glad we’re running out of GPUs 😂

[Bruno Fernandez-Ruiz @olympum]

Unless Americans are willing to exercise significant more pain in Iran, the current situation is that Iran has gained more international geopolitical influence since the beginning of the war.