RTB Guy

Worked business and product roles in advertising for over a decade. opinions are my own.

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@joe_zappa @JonathanMoffie I'll give you that for Yahoo Home 😆 but lots of non grandmas use Yahoo Finance and Yahoo Sports!

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@eric_seufert I don't think this news explain the whole drop. Morgan Stanley had a pretty negative report on $TTD this morning downgrading their price target to $50

https://t.co/i7wf0o9kcf

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@_jonahthejw @BigBullCap Not necessarily, the news was they lost exclusivity in their arrangement - not that the partnership was terminated. This TTD statement makes no mention of exclusivity which tells me the news earlier is likely true

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@tomlyamazon I don't know if Walmart needs TTD in the long run. Partnering with Google via DV360 or buying Yahoo DSP (they already bought Vizio) can be a route that WMT takes as the article mentions. This is a bigger blow to TTD than WMT losing an exclusive arrangement

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

Would definitely like to hear how $TTD explains this one to investors after saying Amazon DSP isn't a competitor (which everyone knows isn't true)

[Sam Badawi @Sam_Badawi]

$WMT is one of $TTD most valuable clients.

This is something…

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@jdonovan42 High fees $TTD charges and $WMT desire for more control of tech seems to be a motivation based on this part of the article

[Sam Badawi @Sam_Badawi]

$WMT is one of $TTD most valuable clients.

This is something…

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@AdtechGod Im waiting on @ChickfilA to launch one at this point

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@101Programmatic True, SP500 creates the perception of "better" open web video by default. Although the reality is both have the same inventory access, it's just that DV hasn't provided a feature/curation like TTD on "premium"

Good points on better support and workflow for measurement impact

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@Ze_colorblind @101Programmatic People don't talk about this enough on here, but I'm also skeptical that price is a major decision factor when TTD continue to have strong growth with 20% take rate's historically. Much cheaper DSPs options out there relative to TTD

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@101Programmatic I agree. TTD using IP was their "advantage". Now that DV is incorporating it, I don't see what clear advantage TTD has especially when DV fully launches their RMN suite.

You can't beat access to YouTube, Netflix and every other major CTV platform on DV for reach.

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@101Programmatic Why TTD over DV for Open Web Display & Video?

[Gokul Rajaram @gokulr]

BECOME AN INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTOR

Over the past few months, I've seen several friends and ex-colleagues proactively move from leadership (manager or managers-of-managers) roles at non-AI companies to IC (individual contributo) roles at AI-native companies.

While this might seem counter-intuitive and maybe even a career negative, I believe it's the right career move for leaders who want to move into AI.

Every AI-native company is looking for leaders with AI native experience. If someone stays a mid-level manager in a non-AI role, they will not build the hands-on AI experience they need to become an effective AI leader. Even a couple years of IC work in an AI native environment will give them confidence and the optionality to either continue down the IC route or go back down the managerial path, now armed with real AI building experience and so a much better manager. Many AI companies are growing so fast that you might even get a "battlefield" promotion to people manager sooner than later, esp if you have prior management experience.

Leaders / people managers in non-AI roles: If you're feeling stuck, please consider interviewing for and moving into an IC role at an AI company. It'll be lots of fun, plus you'll build durable skills you will use for the next several decades.

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@eric_seufert I think the other more increasing challenge on DAUs is the % of bots in the AI era. Some of these bot accounts are becoming more "realistic".

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@TreyTitone Agreed, did they mention their methodology on how they estimated it? I view emarketer data with skepticism most of the time

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

DV360 seems to be stepping up its game in CTV this year. First with its decision to use IP and now with some interesting updates announced today:

1) Google audience targeting on Netflix inventory

2) Retail and commerce data support for YouTube

https://t.co/xe41adu8R5

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@EricTilbury_RTB I agree, but it begs the question on whether PMs and UX designers are talking to enough customers for feedback when they make these decisions.

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

With all the criticisms around Kokai, is this actually resulting in traders shifting budgets to other DSPs?

I'm assuming it's not at the moment, but if $TTD doesn't address major feedback -- is this a future headwind?

[Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) @101Programmatic]

Learn about the main challenges of TTD Kokai and how the latest TTD platform update impacts the overall experience
👇👇👇

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

Quite the opposite, I consider myself a cautious bull (vs a blind bull) owning TTD shares.

The current market reality for TTD isn't favorable with well funded competition w/ data & content differentiators (DV360/Amazon DSP), Kokai blowback, high fees, darling to villain status with some agencies (based on recent industry articles). With that said, I still think TTD can be a CTV leader long term but there are headwinds they have to address.

I also don't see how a Yahoo DSP acquisition would be a positive for TTD, it will just strengthen any buyer against them. But curious why you think it could be a positive.

Re: stock price, I agree 60% is already a big drop but not out of the question for more room to drop to Dec 2022 lows with all the overall market volatility. The stock market isn't rational

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

$TTD is already down 60% YTD and could have another disappointing quarter when Q1'25 earnings come out.

They're very exposed to CPG and Auto + more skewed towards brand advertising with tariff impact uncertainty

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@sayan_dusk No clue, but Apollo is definitely going to offload them at some point as a PE shop trying to get some of their investment into Yahoo/AOL back

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

$WMT acquiring Yahoo DSP would be really interesting to move away from reliance on $TTD who is also trying to compete with Vizio w/ Ventura OS.

Acquiring Yahoo DSP also allows WMT to control its tech stack (DSP and OS) the same way Amazon does as WMT tries to grab more of the growing RMN pie.

Apple would be another interesting acquirer of Yahoo DSP if they're trying to be more ambitious with their ads business (but will likely have to walk back their "pro privacy" propoganda)

[Marty Swant @martyswant]

Yahoo has had early talks w/ investment banks & potential buyers of its adtech DSP, according to according to sources who spoke w/ @Digiday's Ronan Shields.

Buyers could be other DSPs looking for market share or strategic players like retail media networks wanting buying tools.

[RTB Guy @openrtbisbs]

@JohnathanBarnes @v_chubakov That's a great point