Project Orbit

quant trader, used to trade Crypto but now focus on ETPs and occasionally options. never financial advice

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@artchad It runs in cycles. It was like this in 2021, but in 2022-2023 there was a shift back to "normal" billboards like law firms and consumer products. Now it's back to startups

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@tbpn @AnjneyMidha the causal link between total marketing spend ($2.4B) and total change in users (+1M) doesn't make sense because there's no counterfactual. What if eBay spent $0, and the change in users was -10M?

internally eBay is running XPs on this and knows the actual lift

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@TechDev_52 Sample size: 4

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

Never seen apartment leases with such a steep inverted term structure. Can I lease (long) the 14 and sublease (short) the 12?

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@MartinShkreli @SenWarren @ZohranKMamdani @BernieSanders @AOC The people you tagged are not interested in or motivated by stock returns though

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

“Adverse selection? What’s that?”

[Dealer @dealerhustles]

I bought $155,000 of these water heaters for $10,000

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

Hmmm it’s almost like the valuation is based on how that cash will be deployed, and how the value of said deployment accrues to the equity value of the company. Sitting on idle cash isn’t always a good thing

[Kevin Malone @Malone_Wealth]

This profitable company is now 103% cash. Essentially you'd be buying $103 dollar bills for $100.

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@karbonbased Do you known any boomers who bought those companies at IPO and held to today?

IPOs were viewed extremely differently back then, yeah with hindsight you can pick the winners. How many other IPOs from then failed?

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

re @the_nof1 - interesting how:
•the returns aggregate to near-zero (random walk)
•A majority of Deepseek's + Qwen's return is from their single best trade (high leverage). Remove that and it doesn't look great
•All participants have a Sharpe under 0.5

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

Also interesting that it seems like a vast majority of new levered ETFs are long exposure as opposed to short exposure…I wonder if the mix will shift towards inverse leveraged ETFs in a bear market

[Jared Kubin @JaredKubin]

1. More etfs than stocks
2. Levered ETFs going parabolic (BoA)

No words….

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@kaledora people aren’t thinking at the right level and getting hung up on semantics. Having a funding rate of 365% for a stable asset signals not enough liquidity to hold a real position and/or structural Oracle problems

If 365% is even possible, holding a real position is not possible

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@jenzhuscott @entirelyuseles @the_nof1 Adjusting strategy doesn’t negate randomness - if returns are random, some participants will do very well and some will not do well, and the mean return will converge on zero (or negative if leverage is used)

Pointing only to the winners is a tale as old as time

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

@blockbandit_ Very cool - just curious how you are hedging your inventory risk? I know you said separately it's not fully delta neutral - so do you just adjust bid/offer distance to keep an X delta exposure? Or is there a short leg to hedge?

[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

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[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

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[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

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[Project Orbit @orbitdynamics]

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