Ryan Orbuch

unlearned helplessness | partner @lowercarbon, previously @stripe

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

I wrote an essay about why the next frontier for AI is the world outside the data center

Nature is a system more complex than anything we've ever created

AI can learn how the system fits together, so we can finally understand how to shape it

How?
https://t.co/ttb1EZiLXX

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@thisccray wtf

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

excited to back @kevinweil @dpatil and co

[Kevin Weil 🇺🇸 @kevinweil]

💥 Introducing Warp Sciences, a new company applying AI and robotics to help the world develop new medicines faster.

We’ve raised a $215M Series A led by @lightspeedvp to bring frontier AI out of the browser and into the lab, and build scientific capacity here in America.

I co-founded Warp with my long-time friend @dpatil, FAIR co-founder @manohar_paluri, and drug hunter Sol Reisberg. The early team is full of incredible people like @bkspears9, who helped achieve Q>1 fusion at LLNL.

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@atomictocosmic whoa this is cool

[Dan Preston @danpres]

Today @standinsurance announced $70M at a $1B valuation, led by @Saga_Ventures. A year ago, we insured $1B of property. Today it's $10B. Disasters follow the laws of physics. Insurance should too. Here's what our team is building:

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@stackedlol @Willob

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@nickcammarata congratulations Nick this is amazing work !!

[Nick @nickcammarata]

interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had

with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works

https://t.co/zHij5zwKGT

[John Collison @collision]

Tomorrow on Cheeky Pint: @willob of Ulysses joins @sacca and me to discuss why seagrass is the ultimate carbon sink, scaling underwater hard tech (deep tech?), and selling sea drones to the US Navy.

[Clay Dumas @claydumas]

Amen to everything Ian said. Arbor is one of the most ridiculous technical teams in Lowercarbon’s entire portfolio, and when the dust settles they will be one of the defining energy companies of this era.

[Patrick Scott @patfscott]

Wood is the rarest material in the Universe.

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@WillManidis I think that’s true for compute but much less for power

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@jasoncrawford was really good Jason! Thank you for hosting

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

maybe @deepfates and co have something here

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

I’m surprised people aren’t using the term evolution for this, developing some notion of speciation re the particular expertise of subagents, some concept of an ecological niche within which that species performs best

[Jonny Miller @jonnym1ller]

You can always rely on @kevin2kelly to conjure up mind-expanding visions for the future of what machines want

https://t.co/HS2y6tO8fG

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

I’ve seen people talking about agent ecologies which seems directionally right, but begs the question of speciation or something like it

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@MaxAragon cool! Is there a radar band that’s best for birds vs atmospheric moisture?

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

has anyone aggregated/denoised all this radar data on bird migrations?

[NWS Miami @NWSMiami]

If you have been paying attention to radar this morning, you may have noticed it looks quite active even though there is little to no precipitation. Much of this radar activity is actually migrating birds! 🦅 🐤 #flwx

(1/thread)

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@Willob @rmcentush @CatOrman1 💜💜💜💜

[Ryan Orbuch @orbuch]

@RobertHuangHY @TeamOratomic congrats!