Orca Capital

L/S Equity Investor, TMT Focus

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@acocoapp Acoco

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

Opus 4.5 wasn’t a product cycle; it was a temporal divide. While the majority stood still, frontier adopters secured months of operational compounding. Now the world is waking up but early leaders are miles ahead.

Things are accelerating. Don't just watch; front-run the curve.

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@MasaSonCap @nopain_n0gain86 It is remarkable for a declining bus to put out such bullish guidance 40mm to 50mm is massive so either Jennifer is crazy or it’s really cheap. Probably somewhere in the middle

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@MasaSonCap @nopain_n0gain86 Yep agreed, unclear but think from r/r it’s attractive, sub losses stabilizing + better SAARs going fwd should help

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@MasaSonCap @nopain_n0gain86 Hopefully theres a floor for the multiple. Ig if u can hold long enough, multiple coming down w/o the business declining (fcf is flat) could just be an opportunity to buy even more shares. Have to believe this bus is at least flat tho, pretty quickly can buyback most of the float

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@MasaSonCap @nopain_n0gain86 360L conversion + haven’t been pushing on marketing as they’re waiting for 360L rollout + grow subs at the sacrifice of arpu to get younger demographic. To be clear, Im not confident they will grow but seems like a good r/r here. Could get to a mid teen return just off share repo

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@MasaSonCap @nopain_n0gain86 1.5% churn, highly sticky business w loyal customer base (maybe some just can’t / too much work to cancel). Mgmt put out targets to go from 40mm subs to 50mm subs w $1.8bn fcf target

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@jclarkson203 Celsius seems like a fad product: 5 years from now won’t be surprised if there’s another product that takes its place

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@scroogecapital $fico

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@burgessdryan Healthcare, really like what Forward is doing. So much data but not provided on cohesive manner to the customer.

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@viggy_krishnan @JimmyDaGreek76 Seems expensive though, biggest and only criticism

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@agnostoxxx Anyone have a sense of their net exposure?

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@Life21Good @richard_chu97 Don’t think that’s true - they said already let go of 12% + not hiring and letting attrition reduce numbers. Lot of inefficiencies in this business since they’ve been focused on growth.

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@richard_chu97 @SAgrawal101 This was in 2021 - inflated year. Also, how do you feel about their FCF calc? Seems odd to exclude WC when they spent ~$2b on inventory in 2021. They’re always negative cfo

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@GilmanHill This time is unprecedented - great there’s no fundamental issues like ‘08 but pandemic + inflation + war + supply chain issues + overvaluation is a scary set

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@EnergyCredit1 Anyone who’s done a deal in the past 3 months is probably regretting. TB could have gotten Anaplan at 30% cheaper

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@bijan In times like this, great businesses get weeded out from businesses that rely on financing and have an unsustainable business model

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@PythiaR Such few software businesses in the S&P. A lot better than what it feels like

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@OrlandoBravoTB Have to imagine this is one of the best environments for TB in recent times and other software private equity guys

[Orca Capital @orcacapmgmt]

@viggy_krishnan Equity issuances for some companies / M&A through stock