Mac Orlik

Crypto-pilled Investment banker, Tech founder

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@pythianism So what is your base care for this cycle, we don't top somewhere in 2025 and go down substantially 25/26 before resuming the rally? How it plays out instead?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@jpeggler @hoodiefin @wizardofsoho That would be great, any sources which confirm that?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@naval Or maybe rephrasing the question, how do you achieve this estimation of TAM?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@naval @naval what are you benchmarking it to that is >$80T?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@arctan64 @GwartyGwart @maxresnick @0xShitTrader I think their opinion expressed in the pod was exactly the opposite

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@cobie Probably yes, but what happens in a few halving when security budget will decrease so significantly, especially as a ÷ of the whole network worth? What is your prediction on how this issue will play out?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@cobie @AzFlin @lex_node @w4gm1fr3n Why did you rotate? More bullish ETH for the rest of the cycle after SOL big runup?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@cobie @lex_node @w4gm1fr3n Both laughed and shed a year reading this, so accurate

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@ex1tliquidity @cobie @PenserETH @lex_node @iceonblockchain @krakenfx Kraken is launching their own L2 (as far as I remember using OP super chain as well) so it makes sense for their exchange not to support Base. I also use Kraken as my main CEX, and ironically Base as my main chain so to optimize bridging fees I send eth Kraken -> Coinbase -> Base

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@jvb_xyz What is your feeling, when are we going to top this cycle? I can see people arguing reasonably for a wide spectrum - from Q1 to Q4. Also, do you think BTC and alts top should be reasoned about separately, because of a chance of them decoupling due to BSR?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@TheFlowHorse After this 1-2 quarters you expect a short-term pullback and attack on new ATH EOY, or legit bear market, analogous to 2018 and 2022?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@RyanWatkins_ Do you mean end of Q1 would be a temporary drawdown before new attack for ATHs or full bear market?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@AriDavidPaul @fr33dom45 I am also intrigued about the framework for this long-term cycle prediction. Your link leads to all your crypto-related articles, did you have "The Strauss and Howe Generations Model" one in mind, or the thesis you are referring to is spread around all those articles?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@bankless @jon_charb @MikeIppolito_ Found Jon's article to be an incredible read. Format with links to X threads was great, learned a ton from reading through all. Today I have been thinking, it would be great to hear deeper discussion on Bankless and here it is, thanks guys, you never fail to be on top of things!

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@Pentosh1 Curious what is your best guess for this cycle ETH top?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@QwQiao @DepecheNode_ Heard you in Empire today saying this. I see such soon top as one of possibilities but I am curious why is it your base case? Why not something more like 10-12 months at least?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@zachxbt @elonmusk * $DOGE

[Su 🪷 @su_dreams]

Haha this makes sense. Because when they're not thinking about their happiness, they're not thinking about themselves.

There's something magical about focusing on how we create, serve, and be there for something larger than ourselves. Otherwise, "I need happiness" = "I don't have it now or I'm scared of what's going to happen if I don't have it" - i.e., fear-based.

Like with everything, there's nuance. It takes a level of mental freedom and contentment to be able to think outside the ego.

Many of us are trapped in fear by stories we've been told and the upbringing that we have. The everyday drudgery is too much and we don't have enough self awareness to understand what's wrong.

And for those of us in that place, meditation and journaling bring these patterns to light, from unconscious to conscious - so we can finally free ourselves.

And then, life becomes the meditation, and the focus is no longer about happiness; it is simply about being.

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@jvb_xyz To clarify: I agree it's nothing like FTX or Luna, but wouldn't it be a massive price crash?

[Mac Orlik @orlikmac]

@jvb_xyz What if BTC price hits MSTR's forced selling level and it cascades?