Orthogonal Risk

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[L'Art Impressioniste @allontanarsio]

A, B, C ou D?

[Christian Keil @pronounced_kyle]

The vibes are immaculate right now in America.

[R.F. Kenmore @rfkenmore]

You ask the sales associates at Buck Mason for some time to browse and they just look at you like this

[Zay Capital @cap_zay]

Put another way we are paying 2032 prices in 2026 because of covid stimmy

[James Spann @spann]

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected as the low moves farther inland over eastern Mexico during the next day or so.

The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America on Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. Chance of development is only 20 percent.

Even though development isn't expected, deep tropical moisture from this disturbance will move across the Deep South late this week enhancing rain potential here.

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

The Spurs had an 84%+ probability of winning the game in all 4 of their losses.

[Yunyu Lin (yun/yu) @yunyu_l]

Marco Rubio finding out he has to be the CEO of Anthropic after it gets nationalized

[Orthogonal Risk @Orthogonal_Risk]

@AgWxMan1 @jemmm85517813 100mm I’m trembling

[Orthogonal Risk @Orthogonal_Risk]

@AgWxMan1 @HuppenthalJohn How can you assume this when our climate has existed for millions of years and we just recently began collecting data. I see how our 30yr climatological average has been trending up but how can we deduce with signifigance that isn’t within normal?

[Orthogonal Risk @Orthogonal_Risk]

@steipete @_ARahim_ @bcherny Peter, it is a concern if mine that you might end up accessing a shitty part of the posterior with mispellings.

Sometimes mispelling are intentional and I could see them occupying a different part of the posterior by nature.

This would in turn simply produce worse responses.

[Richard “Beebo” Russell @proverbs_14_23]

My grandfather stormed the beaches of Normandy. I once asked him what kept them pushing uphill and into the meat grinder, what kept them fighting? His answer absolutely floored me.

“We wanted Hatians to sell fake Gucci at the train station.”

[Impressions @impression_ists]

Monet’s brushstrokes

[L'Art Impressioniste @allontanarsio]

Les paysages d’Alfred Sisley

[Vivek V Rao @VivekVRao1]

In addition to rolling correlations you can also fit a mixture of multivariate normals to the time series of strategy returns. You can use an information criterion such as BIC to see if there are multiple regimes, and if there are you can look at the correlation matrix for each regime. There is scipy.stats.Mixture and various R packages for this.

[Vivek V Rao @VivekVRao1]

https://t.co/vnvfiTT1mf "[Optiver gave] the LLMs the exam we give to our interns. To push their limits, Quintin also ran the models through a mock assessment designed to test traders after six months on the job.

The questions were simple: How good at trading is the current generation of LLMs? And where is there room for improvement?

After a battery of tests and experiments, the answer was nuanced. LLMs are already highly useful in some areas, but still have limitations in others.

...

Today’s models are good at:

Understanding rules
Performing calculations
Framing problems
They’re currently less reliable at:

Multi-step reasoning
Integrating information over time
Making consistent, quantitatively grounded decisions"

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Why I call the below the most important story in markets / geopolitics?

1) without China importing far less, oil would be way, way above $100

2) Fed would be forced to hike rates, crashing Wall Street

3) President Trump would be against the clock in negotiations with Iran

[L'Art Impressioniste @allontanarsio]

Les différentes peintures de jardin de Claude Monet

[Ben Noll @BenNollWeather]

These are the rare "interstate-induced clouds" that formed over Houston's highways on Tuesday morning, wowing meteorologists.

As roads warmed faster than the surrounding land after sunrise, very humid air above them rose, cooled and quickly condensed into rows of cumulus clouds.

[The Timeless Traveler @TimelessTrvlr]

Old train stations understood something modern airports forgot. Travel should feel like an event.

[Steven Murdoch @sjmurdoch]

For 19 years, GPS satellites have secretly broadcast a “numbers station” in their public signals. We decoded 12M messages: a 2011 flash where 31 of 32 satellites flipped in hours, “ghost” substrings repeating years apart, and a “TEXT” prefix spreading now. https://t.co/xz3svmqiDa