Otis Capital

love tweeting about finance. long - term investor

[WTCM @WTCM3]

needs to be memorialized

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@DadInvest You sure about that math, brother? You made x / basis of $0

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@marc_slans Uh oh. Now I’m nervous about my META holdings…

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@BigBoyBern80872 What makes you think that?

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Google has now added over $3 trillion to its market cap in the ~2 years since “Boob Shirt Guy” asked Sergey Brin about Woke Gemini images while having a foot long Subway Cold Cut Trio for lunch.

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@evrgn11112231 @racetrack275 He’s clearly focused on the short term. But you are tweeting as if you are also focused on the short term…

PS I’m also long META

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$AMZN CEO: Memory inflation is pushing enterprises toward the cloud

“One of the interesting things that we see right now with the change in price and in supply on things like memory is that it is a further impetus pushing companies who have on-premises infrastructure into the cloud. And it's because, in meaningful part, these suppliers are prioritizing their very largest customers, which cloud providers are.”

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@MRatable Nah.

GOOGL up
MSFT flat
AMZN up
META up

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

Interesting print on $BKNG. Clean Q1 beat/operating leverage, but forward debate shifts to normalization in travel growth and geopolitical drag.

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@dalibali2 @jojo_capital Yes, actually. Almost as many DAU as X

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@PythiaR B2C ai models will always be commodities. B2B probably less so

[Wild West Capital @BuffaloBillCo]

Pulse check that we’ve gone from: 1) search getting disrupted by ChatGPT, 2) actually no Gemini/Google is winning, 3) actually no Claude is winning (Microsoft, ChatGPT fucked) and now seemingly 4) wait no Claude has no capacity and actually Dario sucks too

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

First time I have seen $NVDA's Jensen having some issues in explaining $NVDA's moat vs ASICs like $GOOGL TPUs and $AMZN Trainium.

Why does Anthropic use TPUs and Trainium?

Jensen: "Anthropic is a unique instance, not a trend"

I really got to tip my hat to @dwarkesh_sp; he is one of the rare interviewers who first gets extremely well-prepared for an interview and, secondly, is true to his viewers more than the guests and asks tough questions, even though the interviewee might not like that.

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

Did he stop saying 90%? We’ve reached 15% off premise? Still sounds too good to be true.

[Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing]

Jassy: "85% of global IT spend remains on-premises. This will change."

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@CCM_Brett $META is great at one thing, and it prints money like no other: [the thing they've invested billions in]

...worst capital allocators...

What? That makes no sense.

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@bucketshopcap CEO is not trustworthy and makes it a dealbreaker imo

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@PythiaR They are just gonna pass thru the cost of compute. Margins aren’t changing

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@junkbondanalyst Yes, he negotiated it, and he’s owed that money. No dispute. That said, it was a bad deal for shareholders. He didn’t deliver commensurate value

[Otis Capital @otiscap]

@marc_slans It looks cheap on the 5 yr chart, but $MA was trading at ~19x NTM EBIT in early 2019. How are you so sure it will re rate?