otk_ts

Your friendly nerd :)

[otk_ts @otk_ts]

"There is no law so obscene that the police would not be willing to enforce it, up to and including the mass execution of innocent children." - Michael Malice

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$HUT has purchased 990 Bitcoin.

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

Notes from Powell's comments today:

Federal Reserve Policy Update (00:00 - 13:51)

-FOMC decided to lower policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points
-Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace
-GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3
-Labor market conditions remain solid, with unemployment at 4.2%
-Inflation has eased significantly but remains above 2% target
-Committee lowered target range for federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%

Economic Outlook and Projections (13:52 - 24:30)

-Median projection for unemployment rate is 4.2% at end of year
-Median projection for total PCE inflation is 2.4% this year, 2.5% next year
-Committee expects GDP growth to remain solid at about 2% over next few years
-Policy stance is now significantly less restrictive
-Committee will assess incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks

Labor Market and Inflation Analysis (24:30 - 34:30)
-Labor market has cooled from formerly overheated state
-Job creation steady but below level to hold unemployment constant
-Inflation has come down from 5.6% to 2.8% on a 12-month basis
-Housing services inflation steadily coming down
-Committee focused on achieving 2% inflation target

Policy Approach and Economic Performance (34:30 - 43:05)

-US economy performing well compared to global peers
-No immediate recession concerns
-Policy balances risks between two mandates: maximum employment and price stability
-Neutral rate estimates vary, but policy is closer to it after recent cuts
-Committee proceeding cautiously with further rate adjustments

Long-term Outlook and Public Impact (43:06 - 53:37)

-Goal is to return inflation to 2% while maintaining strong labor market
-Wage growth currently outpacing inflation
-Geopolitical risks monitored but not significantly impacting US economy
-Committee committed to achieving 2% inflation target
-"No intention to settle for higher inflation rate"

Overall, market is selling off due to statements showing that fed expects fewer cuts next year and is more sensitive to inflation data than previously indicated

[otk_ts @otk_ts]

@ThomasEWoods Hi Tom, please have @JoshuaSheats on. He is very underrated in my opinion.

[Libertarian Party @LPNational]

Trusting governments inevitably leads to lost liberty.

[Eric Semler @SemlerEric]

Semler Scientific has acquired 211 BTC for ~$21.5 million at ~$101,890 per #bitcoin and has generated BTC Yield of 67.0% QTD and 92.8% since adopting our BTC treasury strategy in May. As of 12/15/24, we held 2,084 $BTC acquired for ~$168.6 million at ~$80,916 per bitcoin. $SMLR

[otk_ts @otk_ts]

The "Greater Fool Theory" applies to assets that have less fundamental value than the price it is being sold.

From the Austrian view, value is subjective. So, it can be the case that some people are ascribing Bitcoin little value compared to its price.

I personally think Bitcoin has a lot of aspects that I ascribe value to:
1. Zero dilution risk.
2. Zero counterparty risk.
3. Zero regulatory risk.
4. Instant portability around the world
5. Near 100% uptime since inception.
6. Permissionless

So in my opinion, if Bitcoin's price stagnates or even slowly falls, it still has a lot of value, especially, for people from more unstable societies.

[The Vigilant Fox 🦊 @VigilantFox]

NEW: Chris Rock jokes that Trump and Elon’s deportation efforts will be so huge that J.Lo’s gonna marry Ben Affleck again just to stay in the country.

“Nobody knows how to get rid of people like a South African [Musk]. Oh, he’s serious. Trump is not playing. He got Elon… J.Lo’s gonna marry Ben again just so she can stay in the country. I know she’s not Mexican, but Trump doesn’t know that.”

[moneyordebt ∞/21M @moneyordebt]

Chamath is so wrong. Google’s Willow, which has 105 physical qubits in a superconducting QC design ran an artificial quantum circuit design benchmark. They haven’t run Shor’s algorithm which is the issue for Bitcoin public-private key pair wallets and for our entire traditional financial infrastructure.

Thousands of logical qubits, which means of order a million physical qubits, are needed to crack 256-bit ECDSA signatures due to extreme noisiness, especially found in this superconducting qubit based technology. They do have a better error suppression approach that scales all the way to 7x7 now.

There are multiple quantum-safe alternatives for public-private key pairs already approved by NIST. In some years from now probably 5, worst case more likely 10, holdings will need to be moved to quantum-safe cryptographic wallets.

Attacking the chain itself cannot be done by Shor’s, that requires a different algorithm, Grover’s for hashing, one could have quantum mining at some far future date.

Willow has run neither a Shor’s benchmark nor a Grover’s benchmark. No QC has factored with Shor’s a number larger than 21 (sic). No QC has run Grover’s above 4 qubits from what I can see.

Their work on reducing quantum noise and extending entanglement times to several tens of microseconds looks laudable.

At @OrionX_net, with our HPC and supercomputing backgrounds, we have been following quantum computing for two decades.

Follow @bensig on this, Ben, correct me if I have said something wrong here.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

The price of houses isn't going up; the USD is going down. #Bitcoin

[Dan Carlin @HardcoreHistory]

For anyone wondering about the UFO/UAP incident we had over here in Western Oregon, the recordings between different planes and air controllers who saw and discussed it in real time is interesting.
https://t.co/iiyTrcTB0u

[Tim Pool @Timcast]

AOC WAS RIGHT

J6 WAS AN INSIDE JOB

[Kyle Becker @kylenabecker]

BREAKING NEWS: DOJ Watchdog Reveals FBI Had 26 Undercover Operatives in D.C. During Jan. 6 Riot

A new report from Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz has unveiled that the FBI utilized 26 undercover sources during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

The findings, part of a long-awaited 84-page report released Thursday, confirm that some of these sources were embedded among the rioters, with four entering the Capitol itself.

Horowitz claims that the FBI did not authorize these sources, known as "confidential human sources," to enter restricted areas or commit illegal acts.

The revelation sheds light on a highly scrutinized aspect of the Capitol riot, which led to the DOJ charging over 1,500 individuals in the past four years.

Charges have ranged from minor trespassing to serious offenses like assaulting law enforcement.

President-Elect Donald Trump is expected to grant clemency to hundreds of peaceful J6 political prisoners upon taking office.

[Solo Satoshi 🇺🇲 @SoloSatoshi]

🚨Official Solo Satoshi GIVEAWAY🚨
🎄 7 Days of Christmas Giveaway. 🎄

❄️ Day #1 ❄️
How to enter? Like•Share•Follow us.

Winner will be randomly selected.

Device can be shipped anywhere in the world. Winner has 24 hours to DM us to claim price.

Package will include:
•Bitaxe.
•Stand.
•Power supply.
•Cool stickers.
•Instruction manual.

Winner announced in 48 hours from the time this gets posted.

[Mises Institute @mises]

Looking for an introduction to the real story of the foundations and tragedies of the world wars? This new book by the late historian Ralph Raico is a must-read.

https://t.co/nCwllDLh1T

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Babe, wake up! Elon’s going to have another kid. ❤️ 😂 https://t.co/K2LIyp6Wby

[More Births @MoreBirths]

The Baby-Money Index (BMI) beats GDP
There is a new metric that is much better than GDP for comparing nations! The "Baby-Money Index" combines national income (GNI) and fertility rate (TFR) to produce a better measure of a nation's true health. (via Atoms vs Bits)
🧵!

[Libertarian Party of Maryland @LPMaryland]

🔥@ComicDaveSmith

[Sani | TimechainIndex.com @SaniExp]

Coinbase's Bitcoin Under Management surged by 237,000 BTC over the past three months.

It is the largest “honey pot” in the world, worth ~251 Billion USD.

[Balaji @balajis]

The first $100,000 is the hardest.

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

NEW: @tylerkstevens explains why bitcoin miners should start thinking about heat as the primary product of their industry and Satoshi’s as the byproduct 🤯