SkiedOut

Toronto based buy-sider who loves a pow day.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

You love to see it.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@swansongcapital @EverydayCap @BobDhillon_MEQ I’m not sure about the supply demand imbalance being worse in Alberta… $90 oil is going to help as well.

I think they are being disciplined on the buy side which I also like to see. Generally think it’s a good buy here.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@johnarnold Plus you have lots of dumb capital chasing the supply side because it is a life long dream to own a winery. Sure is great as a consumer though!

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@deathbycontent Should work for the raiders… oh wait

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@dylan522p @AnthropicAI Looks like yellow, green and aqua blue just went on vacation....

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@ShaleTier7

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@NotoriousBaggie Pascua Lama 2.0?

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@SamuelRines $8m of revenue… 800m users… $0.01 per user. Nice.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@secretlyaninja This is an interesting idea. How do you think about the fee drag on the BDCs and that impact on the longrun value vs. NAV?

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@MaldenDriveCap @DonutShorts I think there is a real chance of lawsuits which further erode enterprise value.

Lending is a business built upon trust, I think they will have real problems rolling their debt which could trigger a death spiral. I would find it interesting at equity like returns >15% yields

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@BillSimmons no emergency pod!?! Cmon man!

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@BrownMarubozu Perfect, I am aware of this and agree with (old) buffet.

No where does he say this is a metric he looks at for valuation purposes. It’s the same way a bank with low cost sticky deposits has an asset, but you don’t see me adding them to its BV.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@kieranwgoodwin Totally agree. I am now long a small position as the valuation is egregious, I pray kkr is embarrassed by the product and either takes us out of our misery or takes steps to clean it up. This is a classic case of Wall Street greed and bad incentives.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@yummyCenturyEgg How much pricing power has $csu pushed through historically? I generally agree with your macro view here, I just dont know if this is actually the case with CSU

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@zerohedge I prefer “hard assets”, they need to pivot

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@_Yux__ Don’t think $surg.v qualifies as “late stage”, but I think it’s worth a look.

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

Agree, would add some of the AI fear names to the list as well, eg. $spgi

[Arrakis Global @ArrakisGlobal]

First time in years, I think going large cap quality, you actually have great r/r across sectors.

$MSFT $BX $LVMH type of names in 25-40% drawdowns

Probably go 50% long here. Wait for a potential flush and then the other 50%

2022 I got way too cute when Big Tech was a buy

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@BrownMarubozu @MrDavidThomas I'm seeing a BVPS of $53 in 1995 vs $1250 today. Looks like a CAGR of ~10%, I'll even give credit for a dividend of ~1% and call it 11%. My capiq doesnt good back further but it seems like we are putting a lot of weight on the period from 1985 - 1995?

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

@onebeggar @Triviumpartnrs

[SkiedOut @OutSkied]

$ffh.to hate incoming.

No group has more annoying fanboys on twitter

My beef’s with ffh include the following

1) questionable investment performance for over a decade (drawdowns like this would get you fired anywhere else)
2) the swaps on your own stock
3) the deals with OMERS