The Overnight Desk

What moved while America slept + what matters before the open. Stocks, bonds, the Fed. For long-term investors. Not advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Wall Street closes at 4 PM ET. The night doesn't.

Every weekday before the open, we post what moved while America slept (futures, the 10-year, oil, Asia, Europe, crypto) and the 3 things that matter today.

Every number sourced. No calls. No hype.

Follow to get it by 6 AM ET.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

That's why our 6 AM ET post shows futures with a timestamp: it's a snapshot, not a call.

Follow for the overnight read every weekday. Not investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Futures aren't a forecast. Here's what they are:

→ Contracts on an index's level at a set date
→ Traded nearly around the clock on weekdays, while stocks are closed
→ At 6 AM ET they're a live read on the open, not on the close

A green futures morning can still end red.

[Connor Bates @ConnorJBates_]

Just carnage out there...

Since June 1:
- 89% of stocks are down more than 10%
- 54% more than 20%
- 29% more than 30%
- 7% more than 50%

Source: Morgan Stanley

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

.@atlantafed Wage Growth Tracker declined to 3.9% in September … wage growth also slowed for both job stayers and job switchers but the gap between the two remains relatively wide at 1.3 percentage points

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

PIMCO: “.. It is certainly possible, .. given that some of the activity we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks is tied to some negative technicals, some stop-out activity from the platform hedge funds .. You can certainly get there.”

@FT
https://t.co/HPlR5rCnYU

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@charliebilello For context: a year ago the same Freddie Mac survey averaged 6.30%, per their Oct 8 release. The 10-year closed 5.22% that day (Treasury par curve).

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Headline vs core CPI: why inflation has two numbers. Core strips out food and energy, a fifth of the basket, to show whether a price spike is spreading.

Follow @OvernightDeskUS.

The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Sources: futures, 10-yr, Brent, Stoxx 600, CNBC; Bitcoin, Coinbase; Nikkei, Nikkei Inc.; Iran, Bloomberg; Delta; UMich.

The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

🌙 While America slept: oil slipped after Trump said the US won't strike Iran before the midterms.

S&P futures +0.43%
10-yr 5.24%
Brent $102.90
Bitcoin $82,500
Nikkei -0.02% · Stoxx 600 +0.87%
(as of 4:45 AM ET)

Today: Delta results, consumer sentiment 10 AM ET.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Source: BLS Employment Situation, released Oct 2. 3-month average is our math from BLS's revised figures. Next jobs report: Fri Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET.

Follow for one sourced chart every weekday. Not investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

📈 The jobs number is a first draft.

August was first reported at +162,000. It's now +133,000 (BLS).

September's first draft: +29,000. July and August combined were revised down 60,000.

That's why we watch the 3-month average: about 51,000 a month.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@EricBalchunas For scale: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on Oct 7, up 1.14 points from a year earlier, per Treasury's daily yield curve data.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

Sources: futures, 10-yr, Brent, Stoxx 600, CNBC; Bitcoin, Coinbase; Nikkei, Nikkei Inc.; Iran reports, CNBC and Bloomberg; PepsiCo; Freddie Mac; TreasuryDirect.

The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

🌙 While America slept: oil jumped almost 4% on reports the US may resume strikes on Iran.

S&P futures -0.29%
10-yr 5.33%
Brent $104.07
Bitcoin $82,830
Nikkei -1.42% · Stoxx 600 -0.65%
(as of 4:45 AM ET)

Today: PepsiCo results, mortgage rates noon, 30-yr auction 1 PM ET.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

The Sep 16 decision: a quarter-point hike to 3.75–4%, by a 12–0 vote (Federal Reserve). The minutes post at https://t.co/oFOK2sBONU at 2 PM ET.

Follow for the overnight read every weekday. Not investment advice.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

The Fed decided on Sep 16.
At 2 PM ET today, we see how they argued.

Fed minutes in 30 seconds:
1. The meeting's notes, released 3 weeks later
2. No names, only "many," "some," "a few" officials
3. Markets count those words

Today's tell: how many wanted more than one hike.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@dailychartbook @_SeanDavid For context, the same September BLS jobs report had the unemployment rate at 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@dailychartbook Per BLS, owners' equivalent rent rose 3.1% in the 12 months through August, the latest CPI data available.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@bespokeinvest For reference, the August survey had median one-year inflation expectations at 3.6%, unchanged from July, per the New York Fed.

[The Overnight Desk @OvernightDeskUS]

@MikeZaccardi @StockCharts The VIX itself closed Monday at 15.52, below its 2026 average close of 18.19, per Cboe data via FRED.