Oz Nur

crossover @Wellington_Mgmt

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@mattturck i feel attacked

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@immad congrats, Immad!

[Rob Perez @WorldWideWob]

Dylan Harper’s layup package is a Cheesecake Factory menu.

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

wemby and harper just wow. speechless

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@packyM feature, not a bug, for a long and successful career

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@yminsky @dwarkesh_sp so cool

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@heykojo damn flipped since dinner days ago! why?

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

i think for retail to meaningfully fund these IPOs given the dollar amount of flows, have to see it coming out of crypto/btc, prediction markets, other retail darlings (PLTR etc). i think persona for incremental retail buyer is typically looking for significant upside potential, which is why i grouped these together

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

the reiner dwarkesh pod is an awesome format, i feel viscerally like im learning. also fighting for my life trying to keep up

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@christinacaci keep crushing!

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@immad huge step, congrats Immad!

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@braveben happy birthday, Ben!

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@P_Remarks low TAM amazing tweet

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@zoink amazing

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@vasuman a+

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@JaredSleeper the skepticism on AI ROI / HS capex concurrently with death of software is another odd one.

one thing on the neoclouds: they’re the most reflexive stocks to express supply crunch but their burn / balance sheets make them scary.

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

This efficiency point is one I’ve been stuck on too. You have to go company by company (to your point, Anthropic would stand out from any perspective). However, a meaningful percentage of AI-native growth trajectories are underpinned by compute pass-through (inference businesses) or token pass-through (applications) that ultimately point more to insatiable demand for the underlying infrastructure than to durable standalone economics. There is a bull case where the cost curve improves and AI natives create more value on top, but for the time being we should be cautious about touting “xx-employee company reaches xxx ARR” when the gross margin profile is masking how much of that revenue is effectively a conduit for compute or token consumption. There are rhymes with infrastructure software, where early negative gross margins were a natural feature of scaling (when, not if) — but that analogy can be applied imprecisely to many of the companies we see today. ARR per FTE still means something, but it doesn’t mean exactly what it used to — in a world where revenue can scale on the back of pass-through compute and token demand, the metric captures velocity without fully distinguishing between genuine operating leverage and infrastructure-subsidized growth. I’m sure it will evolve to carry more signal, but it’s hard to overlook that many of these trajectories are riding voracious underlying demand for compute and tokens, often at negative margins.

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@andrew__reed catches me off guard when you toss in an insightful post in a sea of dad jokes and niche humor

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

bam adebayo 😭

[Oz Nur @oz_notes]

@levie @tszzl this is my style as a VC 😂